Chase Case #6

18z update

Dustin Wilcox said:
Some new 18Z information, including a couple 9hr charts from a mock 15Z RUC...

http://severechase.com/stcc18.html
Click to expand...

I had to defer looking at anything until this evening b/c all the images of the data were blocked at my work, so I'm playing catch up starting with 18z data.

After having had a chance to digest data in North Platte, and seeing as tomorrow will be a down day, I'm going to make the 4hr run up to Murdo SD. I'm committed to a northern play at this point anyhow, so might as well follow the moisture. Also like the upper flow over s/c SD.

20z update: (ok, not so far behind with updates as I thought I might be) As I was heading up hwy 83, noticed the storms going up in my vicinity. Given that the road network is absolutely horrible where I am, playing the hwy 83 corridor north of Thedford, pretty much following a storm for a while, then dropping back south to the next one to see if one can really get going. I don't want to venture to far north on 83 though as I need an east option available just in case. Starting to think all I may get out of the day will be elevated hailers.
 
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I am just getting caught up now too. After the 18z update I decided to high-tail it from Omaha towards Ainsworth, NE. 4 hr and 40 min drive. I should be there in time for showtime (even if it is just some wind). It would be nice to be on that dryline in TX though. Gotta stick to my guns.
 
I'm getting into the game a little bit late, but better late than never, I suppose.
My initial target would have been Lexington, NE, where I would have stayed put through the 20z update, but after analyzing I'm not particularly liking how veered the winds are becoming along the I-80 corridor, and I'm seeing some deeper moisture/more favorable winds in far north central NE/south central SD, and seeing as tomorrow is going to be a down day anyway, I'm rocketing north on Highway 183 to Ainsworth, NE and wait for a dominant cell to emerge out of the line forming to my west/southwest and intercept from there. I have a gut feeling that I likely will not see anything particularly exciting on this day, but anything is better than a blue sky bust. And besides, this move puts me in position to make a short jaunt back to the Badlands and shoot some scenery on tomorrow's down day... gotta look at the upside of my target choices! :)
 
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12z Initial Targeting

12z:

This is a tough one. I see some potential for two areas in particular.

As usual, the dry line setting up along the TX/NM border catches my eye. Moisture is sufficient here. The dry line is already pretty well-defined and will provide a focus for surface convergence. The 850 mb trough lines up well with the dry line for additional convergence focus. Mid and upper level winds are sufficiently strong to enhance vertical shear. Capping seems modest in the panhandles. And upper air lapse rates are maximized in this area, though much of this cooler air aloft should advect ENEward. Capping would be a concern, and vertical wind profiles appear for now to be either linear or backed from surface to upper levels.

Another area of interest for me would be NC to SE NE and NE KS. Diffluence aloft is pretty strong here to enhance lift. Vertical wind direction appears veered from surface to upper air. Dewpoints at or above 55 are advecting Nward through this area. Surface winds have a backing component in response to the approaching trough and 850 mb low center in NE WY. Concerns would be warmer 850 mb temps advecting ENEward out of E CO and backed upper level winds with approaching 500 mb low center.

I’m going to buck my own dry line trend and make the drive from Dodge City, KS (from Chase Case #5) up to an initial target of Kearney, NE. This should take me about 4.5 hours or so, so hopefully I can get some updated info en route. This will probably be a SW KS or TX panhandle day, since I have chosen a northern target. Actually, the more I look at it, the more I like Liberal, KS to Garden City, KS, but I’m sticking to my plan for now.
 
Well, Everything is still looking ok. Just ate a rack of ribs here in Wichita Falls, even got a round of golf in today. We are still in the same position that we originally chose. Now we are beginning to see initial convection develop to our SW on visible satellite as of 20z. Just dominating the situation. According to the 20z MD we should get some development as forecasted. We will hang here in Wichita Falls and if it gets jiggy in the next few hours we may jog east or northeast a bit.
 
After the 18z update, hanging with the dryline. Moving northeast and should be in Spur, TX by 430. After the 20z update, I'm hanging tight and monitoring. I see some low CU on satellite, but it still has a capped look to it. I do like the dryline bulge a hair to my south. Great convergence as well.
 
By 5 storms formed out ahead of the pre-existing line further West, and by 5:30 they are severe..


CP22330.gif




At this time tornadoes are being produced, did you make it to the lead cell?


CPradar0Z.gif



By dark the Western linear convection over takes things and a linear mess forms



CPradar330.gif




Folks down in TX have a little hope, by 0Z some cells try to organize…



TX0Z.gif




Struggling, but it’s still hanging on…



TX003Z.gif




Bummer, by dark they have pretty much fallen apart, the small towers likely provided for some cool sunset shots though…



TX2Z.gif




Despite the Blue boxes (something it seems you hardly ever see anymore) the day yielded a few tornadoes. The day was May 7th 2005, I am guessing this was likely a marginal day at best for most who chased, though I know some caught the brief tornadoes in NE. I’m actually amazed at how well a lot of people did on the chase case (though many others also started to bail on SC NE), when I was studying this day, I determined I would likely have positioned in SC SD, and if not there, I would have rather been along the DL in TX, C and SC NE would have been my third target and ultimately I would have missed tubes in my own state. A lot of disappointed chasers (and SPC forecasters) down South, a lot of chasers further North might have committed to the initial line of convection further West just a tad quick, though I suspect a lot flew SE once they saw that storm first firing in SC NE, rather or not they could have made it is another story... Those who hung out near Kearney and I-80 likely were all over it, Brian made a nice 18Z adjustment in opting for ST Paul, likely putting him self in position for an intercept, Danny might have made it if he decided to move SW early enough.
reports.png
 
Very interesting. Thanks for posting this case!

I was in Hays KS at 20z. After seeing convection at 23z to the north in southern NE I probably would have flew north in an attempt to intercept but I wouldn't have made it.
 
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I'm still happy I started out in Childress. It's not too hard for a cap to break on May 7 along the dryline. I did see one isolated cell, so all is good. Not sure what would have happened on May 8, but I'd likely be heading to OKC for that day to chase.
 
Aaaaarrrr! I was in a good position to get my hopes dashed by the cell in the southeast TX panhandle. I am many miles from home, probably many miles from a gas station, and ready to grab dinner and find a motel for the night. The show was all up in Nebraska. Congrats to those of you who chased there.

Nice case, Dustin. Thank you!
 
18z

18z:

I like some of what I’m seeing. I think I’ll head wnw to North Platte and chill with the Carlsons, if they’re still there by my arrival around 1930z. I’m liking the dry push near the KS border with surface convergence occurring just south into KS, the clear air behind the front for continued destabilization, and the 500mb jet max almost overhead. Moisture could be a little richer, but is plenty ample for the forcing and destabilization. I might need to be a little north or maybe even south, and those options are available at North Platte. I prefer not to have to go too far north, as the sand hills don’t offer much in the way of road network. I do, however like the backed surface winds up more towards SD. I’m glad I chose the northern target, although there appears to be some nice surface converge from around Spur to Paducah, TX and decent clearing behind the morning cloud deck.
 
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