Chase Case #1 2011

[Bob Hartig]

How would I handle this for real? Three days out, I'd be waiting for tomorrow's runs to get an idea what that trough offshore is going to do and how moisture will respond to it. Those northerly surface winds along the Gulf are going to switch at some point and the conveyor will ramp up.

Coming from Michigan, I'll be hoping for a more northerly target for starters, probably SW Kansas. But I'm not going to narrow it down right now.

Thanks, Matt, for getting this going!

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Southeast winds are now pulling moisture out of the gulf, although it appears limited. The balance now is figuring out how far north & west the best of this weak supply will get vs. the advantages of upslope flow and where upper level support ends up. SPC is forecasting the surface low to deepen over eastern Colorado as the upper level support approaches.

I want to set up a little further west, so I'm adjusting my stop for the evening and ending up in Amarillo, TX, and refine from there.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Given the proximity of this event to home, I will continue to sit in Norman and make this an out-and-back chase, most likely leaving tomorrow morning given nothing major changes. I'm feeling like going for structure shots rather than being 500 yds away from a weak tornado on this event, so I plan on setting up along the western edge of the moisture axis, which, during the peak of the event, will probably put me somewhere in southeast Colorado or the far western OK/TX panhandle. Hopefully the upslope winds generated by the cyclogenesis and the moisture are enough to overcome the cap that will develop. 700 mb temps are pretty constant over the threat area, as are the surface thermodynamics, so there's really no way to guess which area will be most favorable at this point.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I too will stay in Amarillo, TX. I'm tempted to hit the Big Texan for a steak but don't want to jinx it, so I'll save that for hopefully a post-chase dinner. Things are still looking pretty good and I don't see much reason to leave. As I expected, SPC has brought the hatched area further W, so no need to move...yet

 

[brice.coffer]

Not looking at the provided SPC outlooks or any other forecast data, it's hard to pick out a target area yet. At the 00Z update, we'll get a better idea how the cut-off trough is progressing over the Rockies and where the moisture is returning to. I have no plans of leaving Norman yet.

 

[David Wolfson]

Leaving for my usual first night stop of Tucumcari, NM. "Tomorrow" will be developing from the west, so expect I'll be in no particular hurry to leave.

 

[Bob Hartig]

It's a long drive from Grand Rapids to Guymon, OK, but put me there.

 

[JeffGonzales]

Staying put in Liberal, KS.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Not leaving Clinton, OK until tomorrow...but preparing to leave early if need be.

 

[Verne Carlson]

This one's so far close enough that I would still be in Denver, CO and heading southeast on the morning of Day 1.

 

[Brandon Jenkins]

No plans to move until morning of. Even if SE CO becomes the eventual target I am easily within range for an early morning departure. Tentative target of Dalhart, TX.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'll second Jeff's suggestion to amend the first post with the updated data so that we don't have to hunt through the thread for it.

The trough is on shore and it looks pretty significant. 850's are coming around for that moisture advection. We'll have a modest plume of moisture moving in, but upper 50's dews are going to be ample over the high plains for supercells on what is likely an early season setup. I'm going to wait for that 0z update before leaving Chicago.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I'll second Jeff's suggestion to amend the first post with the updated data so that we don't have to hunt through the thread for it.

I like the Idea, maybe I can add all the days to the front page post. I will see what I can do. . .

EDIT: Ok, guys I will be posting all the updates on the first post. No more digging through threads to find updates. An excellent idea that I am still unsure why I never thought of it. As long as I can fit everything in on that first post I will do so. If space becomes an issue I may have to delete the first data post to make room. I will be posting the 0z data this evening, and I am also getting other great ideas for using other image hosting sites. I have always used the site that I am using now, simply because I am set in my ways. I do encourage others to maybe come up with ideas for chase case #2 to keep this rolling. I like to be a chase participant in these as well. Good luck.

I also posted information concerning Wayfaring on that first post as well. I am having issues trying to sign on to my old account. If someone knows of another site we can plot each chasers position, or if they have a Wayfaring account that is working properly and could help plot positions, it would be much appreciated.

 

[Joe Karel]

I'm going to get a good nights rest in Dodge City, KS. I won't mind a couple hours drive either west or south in the morning if I need to.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Well I'm going to sit tight here in Amarillo tonight. I'm thinking of 2 potential targets; either up in SW KS near Johnson City, or somewhere down the dryline panhandle. No clear target until morning but for now I'm going to call Dumas, TX as my initial target. This should change tomorrow depending on where the vort max looks to nose into with the dryline.