Chase Case #1 2011

15z, I'm just now finishing my breakfast and reading what SPC has to say. I'm still firm on my target, but I may reconsider moving a bit east to possibly catch that caprock monster if it looks like it will mature a bit before the cold front slams in. En-route to my target now of Liberal, KS.
Just on the road as the 15Z data comes in. The system is moving right along with the dryline already developing along in far east NM, expecting progress at 30 or 35 mph eastward through the day. New target for lunch and 18Z data is Stratford, TX.
Looks like 60s Tds are already making it into southern Kansas. Not thrilled with the 5000 m winds right now over most of the area, but I assume they will pick up in earnest over the next 9-12 hours. Since the dryline is showing up and seems to be making some eastward progress, I will probably stop at Guymon now.

I will be traveling (for real) all day tomorrow so I will likely not be able to keep going with this case in real time. I imagine that if anything goes up within 30 - 50 miles I will probably end up being on it. We'll see how that does for me.

Ok, decision time. I'm going to latch on to the southern part of that cluster south of DDC. I may be making a bad decision not jumping on that lonely cell going up in the northern panhandle, but if this cluster won't do anything I can still break south to catch that one. Also may be making a mistake jumping on early afternoon stuff, but I'll take my chances. So put me chasing this storm near Mead, KS.
The most defined backing winds are north of me in Kansas. But according to the 15Z wind profiles, the better upper support is nosing into the panhandles. I'm quite happy that I picked Guymon. But now I think it's time for me to hoist anchor and check out that cell moving up out of the northern Texas panhandle.
Missed a couple updates but based on the 12z update I would probably have been headed NW toward Amarillo with the intention of awaiting more data. The 15z and 18z updates certainly tempt me to abandon my preliminary target of Dalhart in favor of a SW KS target but I will probably hold strong and latch on to the cell near Dumas, TX while keeping a watchful eye on areas further south along the dryline.
Based on the 18z data, I'm going to hop on this cell riding proximal to the warm front (positioned somewhere between LBL and GCK) WNW of Dodge City, KS and see how it develops, while keeping a close eye on the cell down near AMA, as it may have a better environment to work with at is develops ENE along the moisture plume.
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A new radar return is popping up straight overhead in Garden City. I'll be following it with interest. If this one doesn't pan out, there's still a lot starting to happen all along the WF and OFB arc, including that persistent cell that's about to enter SW Kearney Cty.
Based on the 18z, I'm Leaving Liberal, KS and Heading to cell near CO/KS boarder that is entering Stanton County, Kansas, while keeping an eye on the storms developing in south east Colorado. I have yet to get a Colorado tornado so would like to be in position just incases they become tornadic.
From 12z data, I would head west for the dryline play initation. From 15z update though, seeing southwest winds along dryline at surface would be of large concern an convergence will not be as strong along dryline in TX panhandle. Also southerly backing winds at 700mb from AMA sounding represent mid-level warming an cap holding an getting stronger. I would run north to Liberal, KS an would arrive around 20z.

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On the way to stanton county, KS, saw the 19z watch come out with nice isolated cell in south east Colorado, so headed to that cell out in Baca County, Colorado Hoping to get my first colorado tornado
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This is the situation that drove me crazy in South Dakota and Kansas earlier this year.

That cell moving into Kearney County seems to have a cleaner fetch of inflow than the one over Garden City. I'm concerned that the convection and cloud cover over Mead and Gray Counties is probably going to kill the inflow for my storm. But the anxiety of leaving it for the Kearney cell and then having it produce as I leave it behind is putting me in a mental feedback loop.

So I'm breaking it. I'm going to re-position to intercept and follow the cell further west into Kearney County, KS
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Looks like its going to be an early show up by the warm front. We've got initiation well underway along the warm front in southwest KS and I'm too far north of the front, so I'll be dropping south out of Scott City heading somwhere between Lakin, KS and Ulysses, KS or Johnson City, KS depending on how far south I make it before I hit the warm front. I'm going to try and meet that cell on the KS/CO border as it moves NNE.