Chase Case #1 2011

[Jeremy Perez]

From the 00Z Update
Concerned that the upper low looks like it's hanging back and I don't see lee cyclogenesis getting organized yet. Baroclinicity however is in place over the TX panhandle. 100KT+ Jet streak has made progress, rounding the low and over Arizona. Surface DPs in the upper 50s are advecting nicely over TX and OK with a blob of low 60 DPs punching into the neck of the TX panhandle. The LLJ appears to have a decent tongue of moisture in its grasp as it also pushes over the panhandles. TX panhandle up to SE CO/SW KS looks pretty good so far, and now to see where upper support progresses. Sticking with Amarillo, TX still.

 

[Matt Gingery]

12Z data is now up on the first post at bottom of the page for those of you who may be unaware of the change. There will be a supplemental 15z satellite, sfc, and radar update today. There may be a special 18z balloon launch, so look for another supplemental update at 18z as well. Good Luck! "Its either going to be steak, or funnel cakes", as one of my veteran chase buddies once quoted

 

[Jeff Duda]

Made sure to get up a little early to look at things and confirm a preliminary chase target. Will be heading for Boise City, OK, initially, with a look towards Clayton, NM. Not a ton of roads out there, but the best ingredients appear to be coming together in that 5-state area. Assuming I left around 8 AM, I should be there by 3 PM, if not sooner.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Well, I missed the 0z update, but looking at the 12z data I'd pick Scott City, KS. Surface winds look like they'll stay backed up there on the northeast side of the surface low, the 850's aren't as veered, and there is enough moisture in the area already for supercells and more advecting in later. It would be nice if arc of morning junk puts down an outflow boundary to work with too.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

I also like the potential for nicely oriented outflow boundaries in SW KS. Surface DPs in the upper 50s are continuing to push into the area, and thinking the SW moving through NM will be in good position by late afternoon to help kick things off. I want to move further north to be closer to the outflow boundaries, triple point, and see if dynamics favor the area by afternoon. Heading to Garden City, KS

 

[Joe Karel]

Ah I recognize the day from the morning data..I wished I chased for real! Good virtual luck everyone else.

 

[David Wolfson]

Upper divergence/diffluence looks to be focusing in extreme northeast NM, rather than further south and east. So heading up to Clayton, NM for lunch.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Well after getting some breakfast in Amarillo I'm going to play it safe today and chase on the triple point in SW KS, but I'm also going to keep myself in play for the dryline play if that looks better later on. Leaving AMA by 9am to get into Liberal, KS by noon. I'm hoping the dryline sharpens in this area to be the trigger for today, and hoping to get a right mover to right the warm front. I'm having concerns further south with the cold front over-taking the dryline in the panhandle. With upper 50 dews already in place in SW KS, this looks to be the best spot. Just going to wait for more data.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Well, I missed the 0z update

0z is still posted on post one of the thread. I only deleted Day3 and Day 2 material. . .

 

[Skip Talbot]

Yeah, thanks, Matt. I was gong to leave from Chicago based on the 0z data. Its not very realistic for me to pick a plains target based on the 12z data, but I'll follow along as a virtual armchair chaser

 

[Matt Gingery]

Yeah, thanks, Matt. I was gong to leave from Chicago based on the 0z data. Its not very realistic for me to pick a plains target based on the 12z data, but I'll follow along as a virtual armchair chaser

That's why the 0z data is up still. Its virtual, and you can base your initial target off the 0z data and drive through the night. Fly if you have to, its just for fun. Its about picking a target and where you think the best place to be is. Lets just say you took the red eye in from Midway to, ICT, and as of 12 z you are getting your rental car and heading to Scott City, Ks.. Pick a nice one to destroy with hail. . .

 

[Brett Roberts]

If I'm leaving from OUN, I think I can still make my target of LBL-GCK after viewing the 12z data. Will split the difference and go with Sublette for now.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I'm a little late to the show, but based on the 00z data, I would have chosen to go horizontal for the night in Liberal, KS, and the 12z data continues to support this region (Liberal, KS - US 54 corridor/ points SSW) as an initial target.

 

[JeffGonzales]

based on the 12z, im still staying put Liberal, KS

 

[Jeremy Perez]

15Z Update
The surface low is consolidating along the NM/CO border with a warm front draped along and north of the KS/OK border. The dryline is taking shape across the W TX panhandle with 60 degree DPs invading the E panhandle. Anticipate the surface low moving NE and I still like where I'm at in Garden City, KS as I watch satellite and surface observations for the next move.