Chase Case #6

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Post-mortem: I wonder what exactly I would have seen, looks like the hoses were touch-and-go (and then done) so I would have had to been lucky 'cause I ain't that good!

 

[Marc Austin]

Well, I busted again on this case. That's two successful chases out of four cases so far. I can't wait to participate in another! I wasn't too worried about capping due to the relatively cool morning temps, but apparently there was some upper-level warming. I most likely would have taken some video/pics of the cell west of Childress. Possibly some good lightning, but I'm sad to see no severe reports associated with that storm. Congrats to all who scored! It was a tough day.

Paul, not sure if you've finished with the case yet or not, but you were in the perfect spot from the very beginning! Great job! Looks like breaking your habits is sometimes rewarding. Say hello to Verne for me!

 

[Paul Austin]

20z

20z:

Well, I’m not sure whether or not to bite on the ongoing stuff right near my location, which is undoubtedly racing northward, or to simply track them for a short distance for any possible development and wait for anything developing further south. I just don’t want to get caught behind the front if things get moving fast. The 2015 sat image has some decent-looking towers going up SE of me near Norton, KS. My initial target of Kearney, NE looks like it could be under the gun. I think I will twitter around with the stuff along the front between here and Stapleton, NE. If it looks linear or elevated, and the towers SE of me beckon, I might tear off back toward Kearney. I’ll have to move more east eventually anyway. I thing the cells back in CO might be a little elevated. As for TX, things look to have developed nicely southward along the dry line. Even north of Lubbock in the southern panhandle, the cu field looks ripe. I'm not down there, but I would love to be a little NE of Lubbock right about now.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I may have been able to have timed the intercept as it moved out of the Kearney area. This was the write up from the NWS Hastings on this event:

The initial "big" severe weather event for the 2005 season was quite a deal across south central Nebraska as several tornadoes were sighted. Of all the tornadoes, the most significant one occurred just east of Holdrege. The tornado set down south of Holdrege and bounced its way to the northeast side of town. About 5 miles south of Holdrege, two sheds were destroyed. This tornado damaged a hanger at Brewster Field and hit another farm just northeast of town. Five windows were blown out in the farm house along with other minor house damage. A barn was destroyed. Across the road, a center pivot irrigation system was heavily damaged. As the evening continued, there were numerous other tornado reports from Holdrege to east of Kearney. In Buffalo County, several twisters were sighted. One tornado displaced a barn onto a garage at a farm northwest of Gibbon. Another tornado kicked up quite a large dust cloud, but fortunately was in open county as it passed well north of Shelton. In Hall County, yet another tornado set down north of Wood River, but again causing no damage. The severe thunderstorms brought the usual entourage of hail, some wind and a little rain. Hail to the size of baseballs was reported in Kearney and there was vehicle and home damage scattered throughout the city. Golf ball size hail was reported at Oxford. Moth ball size hail was reported at Loomis and two inch in diameter size hail was reported near Palmer.

 

[John Farley]

Based on the 18Z data I repositioned SE from the OK panhandle to near Sayre, OK. After looking at 20Z, I'm poking a little west on I-40 into the TX panhandle, hoping but not real confident that something will fire on the dryline.

I've only looked at data up to 20Z, so if there is more available I will post again after I look at it.

 

[John Farley]

Well, seeing the outcome, maybe I got some sunset pictures on the non-severe storms in the TX panhandle. Nothing beyond that, for sure!

 

[Paul Austin]

Paul, not sure if you've finished with the case yet or not, but you were in the perfect spot from the very beginning! Great job! Looks like breaking your habits is sometimes rewarding. Say hello to Verne for me!

Hopefully I didn't "twitter" around with those frontal cells for too long. If I would have given up on the hailers early enough, I could have gotten on the cell near Holdrege or certainly by the time it was over Kearney, but that is up in the air. It depends on the data I would have had (hopefully not just Threatnet sat and radar images - I definitely would have missed the show) and what I was seeing near North Platte. It sounds like the cells in W NE were compelling enough for most who chased that day to have stayed on the "sure thing" until it was too late. Once the first T-warnings were issued, I could have possibly made it to the show late, but it's certainly in doubt. I'll give myself partial credit and settle for a Valentinos dinner bar over the steak

I am quite pleased that my initial target panned out. Now if I could only do something about my level of patience...

 

[Dennis Dennison]

I wasn't too hot on this day, but went anyway-didn't drive a lot-guess I should have stayed at my starting spot? However that moisture I saw did in fact get up and thru my place I was sitting at in Kansas, but otherwise I missed it,

 

[Dann Cianca]

Well, I like where I'm at in SW Nebraska ... (still would rather be in Montana thanks to the lightning map), but I'm doing to drop a bit south to US 34 and follow these storms that are overhead right now.

Well, I was heading east on US34 following the storms that had moved into Nebraska. Not sure I would have made it to the storms forming "ahead of the previous line"

Pretty close, though. Hard to say.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Well, it looks like I busted, but I was in position had anything become established northeast of the dryline buldge. You win some and you lose some. This wouldn't be my first bust chase.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks Dustin for this case.
I busted too in Tx Panhandle...To be sincere I'm a "triple p." man, but this time I couldn't resist to remain in Tx Panhandle, after have seen a good shear, and a "bulging" dry line like that.

I wanna call your attention, guys, after have seen surface analysis map from 15.43Z till 3.43Z: I think there's a pretty nice low formed in NW Ks; I would have expected a focus of convective development just in Hill City neck of the woods, and I would have been pretty sure to see a supercell forming. Instead we had the convection started at least 60miles north, I think in Beaver City,Ne.

I would have bet that tornadoes would have formed between Hill City and Edmond with that low. Don't you think the same? It sounds a little strange to me and don't understand the reason.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Man I busted too. Good case though Dustin.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks Dustin for this case.
I busted too in Tx Panhandle...To be sincere I'm a "triple p." man, but this time I couldn't resist to remain in Tx Panhandle, after have seen a good shear, and a "bulging" dry line like that.

I wanna call your attention, guys, after have seen surface analysis map from 15.43Z till 3.43Z: I think there's a pretty nice low formed in NW Ks; I would have expected a focus of convective development just in Hill City neck of the woods, and I would have been pretty sure to see a supercell forming. Instead we had the convection started at least 60miles north, I think in Beaver City,Ne.

I would have bet that tornadoes would have formed between Hill City and Edmond with that low. Don't you think the same? It sounds a little strange to me and don't understand the reason.

I mean, I would have expected something like June 9 2005; compare both of them with surface analysis. Those look like very similar except thermodynamic fields.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

I remember this one and i chased here like i did that day. It was a beautiful sunset. If i remember right there was a larg convergence in Shamrock, but I could have that all mixed up because the best western always seems to be a chaser convergence.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Busted this one as well. TX hates me. Luckily for me if this were real life I probably would have been in NE instead. Since these are virtual though I assume I can have a starting point anywhere.

Good case though and one I will probably look over closely a few times to watch how things evolved and perhaps look into why TX never took off.

Thats the name of the game though, to think youre gonna never bust is just foolish. Now its time to chase the next best thing, those purdy southern cowgirls who can down more shots of jack than I can.