Intermediate update
*The chase time is approximately 2330Z*
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (
graphic)
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX INTO FAR SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06Z...AND
A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT THAT TIME.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TCU HAVE DISINTEGRATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS RELATIVELY COOL AND CAPPED...YET HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
RETREATS NWWD. MODIFIED 18Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CAPPING. STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO FORM ALONG DRYLINE AS HEATING HAS
ENDED. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WITH COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE LATER
THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
Radar images available:
KDDC_2315Z
KDDC_2345Z
KLNX_2330Z
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19
MILES SOUTH OF FOWLER...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENGLEWOOD...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOWLER...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN MEADE COUNTY.
--------------------------
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CLARENDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENBELT LAKE...
HOWARDWICK...
CLARENDON...
LELIA LAKE...
----------------------------
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BRISCOE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 627 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A DEVELOPING
TORNADO NEAR CAPROCK CANYON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CAPROCK CANYON
STATE PARK.
-------------------------
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
WESTERN DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 630 PM MDT (730 PM CDT)
* AT 521 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF HAIGLER...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. FRANCIS...
MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAIRD
AND ALVIN
I plan on posting the 00Z update in a few hours and then probably the final update, 01Z, late tonight. Since it's New Year's, I can imagine many may not see the 01Z or even the 00Z updates until later, so I will delay the posting of the final results till later tomorrow. Many have figured out this date, and I understand why. If other people figure it out to the point that everyone knows, I will end the case.