Chase Case 7

(22Z), With convection to my NW and W, I'll make a move to my NW north of Elkader, KS. From there I will judge by visual wichever base I should chase. Oakley, KS could be my next move after that if the developping convection looks good to me. Else I will play new D along the dryline.


23Z Edit: I am too far south of the severe convection in Thomas Co but I will still make a move to Oakley, KS. The nce development in Greeley Co is under my radar but I don't have any good option W from my position. I'll be monitoring closely that development almost abover my head. Should any of these 2 bases go crazy I'll be there.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Intermediate update

*The chase time is approximately 2330Z*​

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX INTO FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06Z...AND
A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT THAT TIME.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TCU HAVE DISINTEGRATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS RELATIVELY COOL AND CAPPED...YET HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
RETREATS NWWD. MODIFIED 18Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CAPPING. STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO FORM ALONG DRYLINE AS HEATING HAS
ENDED. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WITH COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE LATER
THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

Radar images available:
KDDC_2315Z
KDDC_2345Z
KLNX_2330Z

------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19
MILES SOUTH OF FOWLER...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENGLEWOOD...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOWLER...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN MEADE COUNTY.

--------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CLARENDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENBELT LAKE...
HOWARDWICK...
CLARENDON...
LELIA LAKE...

----------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BRISCOE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A DEVELOPING
TORNADO NEAR CAPROCK CANYON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CAPROCK CANYON
STATE PARK.

-------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
WESTERN DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT (730 PM CDT)

* AT 521 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF HAIGLER...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. FRANCIS...
MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAIRD
AND ALVIN

I plan on posting the 00Z update in a few hours and then probably the final update, 01Z, late tonight. Since it's New Year's, I can imagine many may not see the 01Z or even the 00Z updates until later, so I will delay the posting of the final results till later tomorrow. Many have figured out this date, and I understand why. If other people figure it out to the point that everyone knows, I will end the case.
 
Don't know the date, but who cares! Got my first tor on my first chase and am video-ing it now! =] Whoo-hooo!!! =]
 
00Z Update

00Z Update​

Daylight is fading, but as many of you know, the chase is far from over.

Satellite:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Mid-Mississippi valley

Wind profilers:
Lower troposphere
Upper troposphere (unavailable this hour)

Radar: (regional)
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Mid-Mississippi valley

SPC mesoanalysis graphics: (out of service...error from SPC site)

Local radar: (you were able to capture a short animation out of KGLD)
GLD loop ending at 00Z

------------------------
Now the tornado warnings are starting to fly out like hotcakes:
------------------------
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM MDT

* AT 545 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHARON
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL WALLACE COUNTY AROUND 600 PM MDT
RURAL NORTHERN WALLACE COUNTY AROUND 610 PM MDT

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 134 AND 156.

-------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 606 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MORGAN
LAKE...OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GORDON...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 20 AND IRWIN ROAD BY 635 PM MDT...
9 MILES WEST OF MERRIMAN BY 645 PM MDT...

------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HANSFORD COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
NORTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PRINGLE...
OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTH OF BORGER...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORSE...
PRINGLE...
GRUVER...

---------------------------------

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR DONLEY
COUNTY...

AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HEDLEY AND MOVING TOWARD
HEDLEY. RESIDENTS IN HEDLEY...AND RESIDENTS SOUTHWEST OF HEDLEY NEED
TO TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

-----------------------

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
WALLACE COUNTY...

AT 555 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

-----------------------
 
Of course since my last post I know what event this is. I'm still chasing though!!!
 
Got my tor just outside Clarendon, since first time chasing, and nighttime coming on, backing out. Fun, though, thanks for letting me participate! =]
 
Being in Oakley @23:30Z my onl;y option was to move west towards Wallace County. Intercepting this storm around 00:20Z.. I may be late on the storm time will tell if I scored or not...
 
Jeff Duda said:
Many have figured out this date, and I understand why. If other people figure it out to the point that everyone knows, I will end the case.
Click to expand...

Nah, there are still a few savvyless goobers out there who don't have a clue, me being a prime example. Let's just say that I did at least figure out two important things: a) hey, these storms in the northeast panhandles are all training straight north, so b) that means I need to go west.

So I'm on the tail-end Charlie by Booker, TX. No doubt this is my last gasp during daylight. Why, oh why, didn't I just stay put in Amarillo? Instead of driving north out of the sweet spot like an idiot, I could've camped out at the Big Texan till show time, eating omelets and sucking down coffee, and then left the waitress a nice, big tip. <Banging head on steering wheel.>
 
Bob Hartig said:
Nah, there are still a few savvyless goobers out there who don't have a clue, me being a prime example. Let's just say that I did at least figure out two important things: a) hey, these storms in the northeast panhandles are all training straight north, so b) that means I need to go west.

So I'm on the tail-end Charlie by Booker, TX. No doubt this is my last gasp during daylight. Why, oh why, didn't I just stay put in Amarillo? Instead of driving north out of the sweet spot like an idiot, I could've camped out at the Big Texan till show time, eating omelets and sucking down coffee, and then left the waitress a nice, big tip. <Banging head on steering wheel.>
Click to expand...
Bob, trust me you're doing just fine in Booker, TX!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Brian McKibben
2024-05-25 EVENT: OK/KS/TX/MO/AR
3 4 5 6 7
Replies
92
Views
6K
Dan Robinson
Dan Robinson
adlyons
State of the Chase Season 2024
13 14 15 16 17
Replies
244
Views
22K
Jason N
Jason N
Brett Roberts
2024-03-24 EVENT: TX/OK/KS
Replies
11
Views
1K
Andy Wehrle
Andy Wehrle
Jesse Risley
2024-02-08 EVENT: IA/IL/WI
Replies
1
Views
432
Andy Wehrle
Andy Wehrle
JamesCaruso
Minimalist Chase Forecasting: Avoiding Analysis Paralysis and Separating the Signal from the Noise
2
Replies
28
Views
2K
RRogers
RRogers
Back
Top