Big signal for troughing in the west starting next weekend. Looks like the northern plains could come alive with this. Of course this is when I have to fly home…
State of the Chase Season 2024
- Thread starter adlyons
- Start date
Dan Robinson
EF5
The Northern Plains looks viable for the foreseeable future, but instability/upper flow juxtaposition is nebulous and no huge days are evident. It looks analogous to the past 10 days in the central/southern Plains, as in there will probably be a couple of good mesoscale events for those who can chase up there every day and get the target right. Montana and North Dakota are out of my range given the state of my PTO/travel fund budget, so if Friday-Sunday doesn't come together, that will be a wrap for my season.
Ryan Schwartz
EF1
Northern Plains setups also have to overcome the gauntlet of morning convection. Generally, the setups are ruined by that.
Brett Nickeson
EF2
Northern plains setups also have to overcome the fact that they are northern plains setups and it's not pre-2014 lol. Still waiting for that decent June tornadic setup in NE/SD or thereabouts. Feels like it's been a decade.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Sunday will be 10 years since P****r. It's a dirty word to me since that was my first real, serious solo chase and my leaving-the-house target was Sioux City by 3 PM. However, I got a later start than planned and then during a late morning data check in Iowa Falls, I saw convection ongoing over the Missouri River, assumed I would need to get south of its inevitable outflow and retargeted to Omaha, heading south on I-35 and then west on 80. I was chasing without mobile data, so I only knew what was going on when I stopped for another data check (I was relying on McDonald's and rest stop wi-fi) in Omaha. I blasted north, arriving just in time for the last-gasp EF0 near Hubbard (which I couldn't even seen the ground circulation of, observing the storm from a distance along US 75/77 just north of Winnebago, NE, but it occurred during the time I was watching the storm and I could see a bowl lowering with nub funnel beneath the still dramatically-structured updraft). Then the storm began to rapidly weaken and die; it seemingly occurred along the differential heating gradient and had moved into air stabilized by that very morning convection I had been concerned about.
Brett Roberts
EF5
Since we're on the subject: 2024 has certainly met the threshold of being a pretty good chase season, especially by modern standards. In my book, it will be a close call whether it tops 2023, which had activity spread a bit more evenly across the season and had the geographic centroid of chase days notably farther west. But, unless something drastic changes in the next 10 days, I don't see it seriously challenging 2004 or 2010 in the end. The reason is primarily because we're falling back into the typical June pattern of the past 15 years: we simply can't get decent flow over seasonably decent moisture to save our lives. Historically, it doesn't require much to get tons of mesoscale setup days in June, of which you can count on some percentage going gangbusters. But what little it does require just isn't materializing very often these days. Last June was the rare exception from the past decade, and even that hinged on a lot of subtle shortwaves barely sneaking 20-30 kt of flow onto the High Plains behind dominant eastern troughing. (Plus, in fairness to the more northern contingent, most of the activity even into late June was pretty far south... albeit far enough west that the terrain was generally great).
I think what Brett raised hits the nail on the head: it's simply remarkable how rare those late season strings of legitimately interesting setups in the corridor from say Limon-Hays across NE to Pierre-Sioux Falls have become anymore. Sure, there are "hope and pray" setups various days every spring (including over the next week), but almost never a week with 4-5 days of 5% tornado probs and a couple that go 10-15% hatched. This is probably a footnote to some folks who saw several big days in Iowa or Texas this year and are ecstatic with good tornadoes wherever and whenever, but I don't know... that late season, high CAPE, slow mover regime that offered long stretches of opportunity has always contributed a disproportionate share of what makes me anticipate chase season so eagerly in the dead of winter. If it's as close to extinction as the last 15 years suggest, eventually it may make me rethink things a bit.
I think what Brett raised hits the nail on the head: it's simply remarkable how rare those late season strings of legitimately interesting setups in the corridor from say Limon-Hays across NE to Pierre-Sioux Falls have become anymore. Sure, there are "hope and pray" setups various days every spring (including over the next week), but almost never a week with 4-5 days of 5% tornado probs and a couple that go 10-15% hatched. This is probably a footnote to some folks who saw several big days in Iowa or Texas this year and are ecstatic with good tornadoes wherever and whenever, but I don't know... that late season, high CAPE, slow mover regime that offered long stretches of opportunity has always contributed a disproportionate share of what makes me anticipate chase season so eagerly in the dead of winter. If it's as close to extinction as the last 15 years suggest, eventually it may make me rethink things a bit.
William Monfredo
EF3
I agree. I moved to ~ 15 miles south of the NE/SD border in Fall 2016 and have waited "patiently" many times for the season "to come up this way." This morning, I thought, hey, where's June going? Doesn't seem like a lot happening tornado-wise.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
While a few people had good catches with the Clarkson, NE storm yesterday, this whole "uptick" has been a bit disappointing. Had hoped to see a few more clear-cut 10# or 15# days emerge, and/or things come closer to home here in southern WI with a good "ring of fire" pattern for us/N IL/E IA. Instead, everything has remained well out to the west and/or north and that looks to continue.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Kind of ironic - but par for the course in my experience - that since I left the Plains on 6/5 even though I could have stayed until 6/14, the only decent day was 6/15, when I would have had to fly home anyway. Not that it would have been worth staying out there another 10 days just for yesterday, but just sayin’ - this seems to be the way it always goes for me, With my luck, chasing will ramp back up in late June and continue into July like it did last year, when I am unable to do even a quick targeted trip because of family events and business travel. So I think the season is over for me, despite the flexibility I should have *in theory* from being able to work remotely… Oh well, maybe there will be some good stuff in the Philadelphia area (HAHA) or maybe I’ll finally get a hurricane chase ticked off my bucket list.
Dan Robinson
EF5
My perception of what’s ahead is the typical Northern Plains: huge-parameter days that are more likely to cap bust or fall apart than any central/southern Plains one, but require chasing up there for 2 weeks (giving up all the May action) for years to hope that one of them performs. It’s the classic June/High Plains/Midwest situation where 99% of the setups don’t perform, but when that 1% ultimately does, it’s so incredible that it cements that region’s reputation that it arguably doesn’t deserve.
It’s been a long time since there has been a big day up there so I guess it is due, but to me the upcoming setups aren’t really ones that scream “go up there now”.
It’s been a long time since there has been a big day up there so I guess it is due, but to me the upcoming setups aren’t really ones that scream “go up there now”.
Dupree II is overdue
I have a sick feeling the remainder of the 2024 central US season is going to be very stingy in what it gives. Even though the 30-day precip anomalies have retained some 100%+ values over the central Plains, in most other areas things have really started to dry out. Denver in particular has gone pretty dry since early May and my grass is brown and crispy. The pattern has calmed down a lot, and as we swing out from El Nino into La Nina, it seems like not a promising large-scale pattern for good setups.
Brett Roberts
EF5
Apologies if this veers into a topic more suited to the season epilogue thread, but: the ENSO state is a significant part of why my tone the past several weeks has probably been more conflicted than the tornado action this season would suggest on paper. This El Nino episode really ended up splitting its impact between late season 2023 and early-mid season 2024. I consider the fairly active pattern from late May to July 2023 on the High Plains a really nice bonus that wasn't at all guaranteed for a "pre-Nino" spring season. On the flip side, its impact on 2024 has been fairly disappointing for the High Plains, which are statistically favored to slide into drought by next spring -- potentially a multi-year drought, even, where we may see the dreaded mid-afternoon moisture mix-out on a large proportion of setups well W of I-35 (as PTSD from 2011-14 floods many of our memories).Dupree II is overdue
I have a sick feeling the remainder of the 2024 central US season is going to be very stingy in what it gives. Even though the 30-day precip anomalies have retained some 100%+ values over the central Plains, in most other areas things have really started to dry out. Denver in particular has gone pretty dry since early May and my grass is brown and crispy. The pattern has calmed down a lot, and as we swing out from El Nino into La Nina, it seems like not a promising large-scale pattern for good setups.
I had 2024 marked on my mental calendar as the best chance for prolific opportunities in the best chase country -- e.g., something like 21-25 May 2016, or even perhaps some great stretches for places like E CO, SE WY, and W NE that haven't had successful "obvious" setups in a long time. By and large, that just hasn't materialized: 2024 has offered lots of tornado days, including quality tornado days, but they've been relentlessly focused at the southern and eastern edges of the traditional chasing alley. It just sucks to think there's a decent chance we look back in a couple years and find that areas like E CO and W KS/NE haven't done a whole lot for much of the early-mid 2020s, with the exception of a couple overperforming days in 2021 and 2023. I feel like Front Range-based chasers have to be really quite disappointed with this outcome.
Of course, I should add the obvious disclaimer that ENSO doesn't dictate the pattern on its own, and there's no guarantee of severe drought or a total dearth of southern-central High Plains setups next spring; it's just a noteworthy thumb on the scale, statistically.
Ben Holcomb
EF5
Tomorrow?Dupree II is overdue
I agree at least on this season; I'll hope for the best in the future. I'm typically based on the Colorado front range during the entirety of spring and early summer chasing and prefer a one way radius of 6-8 hours max from Denver. 2024 has been the worst dud for me in a decade. I had one cap bust near Goodland, one good structure night near Last Chance, and one waste of gas for HP nonsense out near Medicine Lodge. Locally there was one surprise sculpted supercell and a few unexpected lightning chances all with little predictability to get there in time. I did miss a couple decent western Nebraska days that might have ranked the year a bit better in my eyes. I am an unashamed structure, lightning and photogenic tornado princess
and from my location this was a year where a monster expenditure of time and money and chasing everything would have been required to see what I mostly don't prefer to see anyway just for a rare couple things I do want to see.The majority of 2024 storms widely celebrated by many this year were nearly all on the eastern edge or even further east of the central plains ecoregion. From my location that is 9+ hours one way. Many setups were complex (high risk / high reward) forecasts, near metros, mid week out and back chases that subjectively waste PTO, etc. I used to chase east of I-35 ad south of I-40 much more frequently, and a lot less selectively than now. After enough years of averages of visual garbage, higher likelihood to experience bad crowds or observe bad damage in those areas which are also expensive in time and money for me, I lost the will or need to make those long hauls. I just don't get the experience I want to have in those areas often. I'm not into season statistics and don't feel achievement or failure based on outcomes, but I certainly do start to miss pretty storms in years where I don't see them, similar to not seeing wildflowers or a dark night sky - after a while I just really miss them.
This season is what some chasers live for, and I'm quite happy for those who enjoyed and were successful after patiently waiting multiple years for those kind of opportunities. This year was heavily not my flavor or location for chasing and that is perfectly ok. I don't regret not seeing damaging tornadoes or dealing with the long trips or crowds out east. I do miss pretty storms and tornadoes, of which there were a few way out there, but I am already looking to other hobbies and next year.
Monsoon season is looking kinda grim right now too, but we will see if it shapes up somehow. I'm very concerned about the wildfire season at the moment seeing how dry the western and southwestern regions have become.
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William Monfredo
EF3
I think KS and OK during the daytime this season left much to be desired with respect to isolated supercells & tornadoes. I'm preconditioned to favor an outcome of tornadoes. For example: Was I pleased to visit the OK City Bombing Memorial? Yes, but I don't want to see evaporating storm-clouds in its reflecting pool as they approach I-35 at sunset.
It's a fine balance being thankful and goal-oriented at the same time.
