State of the Chase Season 2025

[William Monfredo]

Seems like LP cells did well this season w/ getting tornadoes started in some locations.
This one from yesterday along the southern SD border produced hail in Gregory County.

 

[Jason N]

Seems like ND did have at least 1 pretty intense SC that cause some pretty heavy damage. Not to mention the straight line wind event as well.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

While 2025 is going to go down as nothing more than an average to below average year for me personally, as a whole 2025 has entered legendary status. 2025 reminds me of 2010 where you get mostly mesoscale days that produce highly photogenic tornadoes. I think there will be a few more northern plains tornado days over the summer. The quality of tornado days this year is just about unparallel, and the past 3 years have been among the greatest multi-year stretches ever on the plains. Most years, a day like Morton 2.0 would be talked about all summer, but after Wellfleet, NE and then Gary, SD, it already seems long forgotten. My best day was Arnett, and that day was quite special. I hope everyone has been able to get something good from this year. I am hoping we get more troughing up north in July. I want to make a run up north to chase, but logistically it always seems to be too much to pull off with ongoing life responsibilities.

 

[Tony Laubach]

While 2025 is going to go down as nothing more than an average to below average year for me personally, as a whole 2025 has entered legendary status. 2025 reminds me of 2010 where you get mostly mesoscale days that produce highly photogenic tornadoes. I think there will be a few more northern plains tornado days over the summer. The quality of tornado days this year is just about unparallel, and the past 3 years have been among the greatest multi-year stretches ever on the plains. Most years, a day like Morton 2.0 would be talked about all summer, but after Wellfleet, NE and then Gary, SD, it already seems long forgotten. My best day was Arnett, and that day was quite special. I hope everyone has been able to get something good from this year. I am hoping we get more troughing up north in July. I want to make a run up north to chase, but logistically it always seems to be too much to pull off with ongoing life responsibilities.

I have to agree with the sentiment that we're in the midst of one of the greatest three-year stretches for storm chasing. I saw this topic discussed on Facebook and considered opening a new thread to discuss that. Certainly this year is probably among the top in recent memory all on its own for the quality of storms, and the last couple weeks in the central/northern plains have probably cemented that fact.

Unfortunately due to work, I missed the Wellfleet as I was in PA; probably the biggest sting over the last two weeks given that was three hours from home while I was 1,500 miles away. The Dakotas, while amazing, don't sting AS much given it be up for debate whether I would've made those kind of hauls this late in the season. The weekend shows, while also amazing, I opted to NOT chase as I had plans at home that I wanted very much to carry through, so while a bit urked, I made the choice myself, so it's not as problematic to me. I am animate in saying I'm not part of the 'never stop chasing' crowd, and I hold myself to that. If I don't feel it, I don't chase it. And I had a very respectable season, plus coming off a 3,000 mile non-chase round trip, I just didn't feel like adding several days and thousands of miles to that.

But... I had mentioned how I was debating on whether to put 2025 at #1... and while that COULD still come through pending any awesome summer events (August in Colorado has produced some eye-popping events in the past), I probably will keep this year out of the #1 spot for me given what I have missed over the last couple weeks which leaves a little sour taste in my mouth. There is a little bias of the recent variety, so maybe I'll reconsider this over the summer, but as Greg also mentioned, the Morton 2.0 seems long forgotten after the recent stretch of incredible tornado days. That, unfortunately, rings more in my brain right now than that chase.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

While 2025 is going to go down as nothing more than an average to below average year for me personally, as a whole 2025 has entered legendary status. 2025 reminds me of 2010 where you get mostly mesoscale days that produce highly photogenic tornadoes. I think there will be a few more northern plains tornado days over the summer. The quality of tornado days this year is just about unparallel, and the past 3 years have been among the greatest multi-year stretches ever on the plains. Most years, a day like Morton 2.0 would be talked about all summer, but after Wellfleet, NE and then Gary, SD, it already seems long forgotten. My best day was Arnett, and that day was quite special. I hope everyone has been able to get something good from this year. I am hoping we get more troughing up north in July. I want to make a run up north to chase, but logistically it always seems to be too much to pull off with ongoing life responsibilities.

I have to agree. I don't know if it's just a great year, or the amount of coverage, or maybe just the visibility of it but I feel like I really missed the boat on this season after doing what I felt was ok up to the third week of May.

From what I saw, not only were the tornadoes what we all dream about and chase for, but the way they were chased by those who were there was on another level. Super Duper close ups with vehicles right next to drill bits, looking straight up into the rotation above, dancing vortices around twisting trunks...I honestly don't know how it could get any better, and I missed it all. Goodness it's hard to not feel like the game has changed a bit and I've been sitting in the cheap seats watching an epic show take place.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Will try to save my long winded pontificating for the season epilogue thread, but I have to agree on two points: 1) this season has leapt forward to reach unquestionably above-average status over the past couple weeks, with some argument* for being on the all-time greats list; and 2) the run of 2023-2025 has been a stunning reversal of fortune from what I'd consider a decadal scale drought in chase quality immediately prior to that run.

It's been a long time since June has served as the cornerstone of a season... probably since 2014, and even longer since a season that was actually good overall had a great June... 2010? It's quite humbling to look back at my ambivalent posts a few weeks ago complaining about the lack of SW flow and discernible trough ejections in the medium range. IMO, the only easily targetable event after the Morton sequence was the ND setup on June 20, with the rest being mesoscale or otherwise environmentally flawed setups that went off anyway. But the frequency of these setups ripping off photogenic tornadoes, when you can easily remember long stretches in other years that failed over and over again, only deepens my suspicion that perhaps there could be boundary conditions or other seasonally persistent factors that our current forecasting techniques are underappreciating.

*My reservations about calling this an all-time great year boil down to the same as the past two years: virtually no outbreaks or obvious days that panned out. In fact, a few obvious, outbreak-looking days that mostly or completely crapped the bed. That's a huge deal for anyone who's limited and trying to be selective. The undisputed all-time greats like 2004 and 1991 looked very different in that regard.

 

[Dan Robinson]

At least for me, Northern Plains tornadoes in late June might as well be in Northern Russia, I’m never going to be able to chase up there with the consistency needed to catch these rare performers. As such, they don’t really factor in to my personal season quality assessment which is focused on the times and places I can realistically chase. For those that can do that, my hat’s off to you as this latest stretch rivals pretty much any legendary stretch in chasing history.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I returned from my chase trip on June 9, after what I thought had to be one of the best personal 4-day stretches (June 5-8) in at least the past decade. I haven't closely followed every day since, but anecdotally it seems the northern Plains have been quite active ever since. If I didn't have family and professional obligations, I would have loved to have extended my trip, or done a second trip, just working remotely and selecting the better days. Not sure I would have bothered chasing in Minnesota, or if I would have successfully identified or prioritized all of the mesoscale days while trying to work remotely and minimize PTO usage, but it would have been great to have the option. I've never chased in Montana or North Dakota, usually because my trips were earlier in the season and there would mostly be one-off opportunities that were just too long hauls to have to return back to the central or southern Plains to chase or to fly home.

Most years, a day like Morton 2.0 would be talked about all summer, but after Wellfleet, NE and then Gary, SD, it already seems long forgotten.

as Greg also mentioned, the Morton 2.0 seems long forgotten after the recent stretch of incredible tornado days. That, unfortunately, rings more in my brain right now than that chase.

I agree with Greg and Tony. There is no logical reason why something we saw should seem less special just because someone else saw something better. This goes for an individual chase day too. Contentment requires being satisfied with what you saw, even if someone else saw something better that day or a different day. But it's easier said than done. As a chase vacationer, I am all too familiar with the feeling of missing stuff before or after my chase trip. But it doesn't get any easier. It's particularly frustrating as I get older and more acutely aware that I have fewer chase trips ahead of me than behind me. When the hell will I *finally* be able to spend the amount of time chasing that I want to?!? Now that I finally have the ability to work remotely, it seems that now it's family obligations holding me back. This year was exceptional, with all three kids having graduations. Hopefully next year will finally provide some more freedom.

I have to agree. I don't know if it's just a great year, or the amount of coverage, or maybe just the visibility of it but I feel like I really missed the boat on this season after doing what I felt was ok up to the third week of May.

From what I saw, not only were the tornadoes what we all dream about and chase for, but the way they were chased by those who were there was on another level. Super Duper close ups with vehicles right next to drill bits, looking straight up into the rotation above, dancing vortices around twisting trunks...I honestly don't know how it could get any better, and I missed it all. Goodness it's hard to not feel like the game has changed a bit and I've been sitting in the cheap seats watching an epic show take place.

Sean captures my feelings exactly. Similar to what Greg and Tony said, I felt "successful" coming home with Morton etc. I felt I did OK through that first week of June, but now it's hard not to feel like I missed the best stuff. And it's particularly frustrating that some of the best stuff came so late; it's fine for those who can chase everything all season, but I don't think anyone would have chosen these last few weeks as their *only* weeks. With talk of 2025, or even the three-year stretch 2023/2024/2025, being among the best, it's hard not to feel like I failed to optimize it (I know I screwed up a couple times in 2024, and I can't even remember what happened in 2023 but that alone tells you something about how that year went, I just can't recall if it was because of the timing of my trip or because I screwed up). This is particularly hard to swallow, when you never know if or when it will repeat, and what your personal situation might be if/when it does. It's like a football team putting its best roster out on the field and failing to win the Super Bowl before its best free agents depart.

It's been a long time since June has served as the cornerstone of a season... probably since 2014, and even longer since a season that was actually good overall had a great June... 2010?

Yes, and that's ironic, because I really don't think anyone can ever bank on June being the cornerstone of a season. In other words, if one has only a two or three week fixed chase vacation, I don't think there is a basis for doing anything other than prioritizing the second half of May and the first week of June. June is just too capricious. I actually disagree that this season was "good overall" and just capped by a great June. May was actually relatively inactive, except for the May 16-18 stretch; meanwhile, the 16th was not in traditional chase territory, the 17th wasn't supposed to be great but still disappointed, and we all know the 18th crapped out except for Arnett and the after-dark southwest KS behemoth.

My reservations about calling this an all-time great year boil down to the same as the past two years: virtually no outbreaks or obvious days that panned out. In fact, a few obvious, outbreak-looking days that mostly or completely crapped the bed. That's a huge deal for anyone who's limited and trying to be selective.

Absolutely right. I'm not sure I would have done anything differently this year, as I still spent nearly three weeks out there (in two separate trips) , mostly based solely on hope of mesoscale setups presenting themselves, and even if there were other synoptically-evident setups personal and professional commitments would have prevented me from heading out (although I seem to remember some opportunities near the end of April that I squandered by accepting social commitments). Plus it truly is a pain in the ass (and costly) to fly out more than once. I fly at least once a month for work, and it seems two out of every three flights is delayed. But this is my longer-term strategy for years that I can still work remotely and don't have as many personal commitments.

they don’t really factor in to my personal season quality assessment which is focused on the times and places I can realistically chase.

That's a smart approach, and gets back to simply accepting there will always be good events both before and after a chase trip. I guess the only criteria for a quality season is to be able to answer two questions in the affirmative: (1) Were there good opportunities during the window I was able to chase? (2) Did I optimize those opportunities? I guess when one has flexibility to schedule one or more trips, that expands the window in #1, and deciding when to head out becomes part of answering #2. That's where the lack of "obvious" days can become a factor.

My own Epilogue is still to come (as are my chase reports; I'm so behind, I've been completely under water with work and family events since I've been back). I guess right now I feel generally positive about the season and my own performance, although some failures on the May 16-18 portion still sting. But I do feel a sense of longing and regret over all that's happened since I came back on June 9, wishing that I could one day finally be in a position to maximize my chances of catching those mesoscale accidents.

 

[John Farley]

I agree with Greg and Tony. There is no logical reason why something we saw should seem less special just because someone else saw something better. This goes for an individual chase day too. Contentment requires being satisfied with what you saw, even if someone else saw something better that day or a different day. But it's easier said than done. As a chase vacationer, I am all too familiar with the feeling of missing stuff before or after my chase trip. But it doesn't get any easier. It's particularly frustrating as I get older and more acutely aware that I have fewer chase trips ahead of me than behind me. When the hell will I *finally* be able to spend the amount of time chasing that I want to?!? Now that I finally have the ability to work remotely, it seems that now it's family obligations holding me back. This year was exceptional, with all three kids having graduations. Hopefully next year will finally provide some more freedom.

Sean captures my feelings exactly. Similar to what Greg and Tony said, I felt "successful" coming home with Morton etc. I felt I did OK through that first week of June, but now it's hard not to feel like I missed the best stuff. And it's particularly frustrating that some of the best stuff came so late; it's fine for those who can chase everything all season, but I don't think anyone would have chosen these last few weeks as their *only* weeks. With talk of 2025, or even the three-year stretch 2023/2024/2025, being among the best, it's hard not to feel like I failed to optimize it (I know I screwed up a couple times in 2024, and I can't even remember what happened in 2023 but that alone tells you something about how that year went, I just can't recall if it was because of the timing of my trip or because I screwed up). This is particularly hard to swallow, when you never know if or when it will repeat, and what your personal situation might be if/when it does. It's like a football team putting its best roster out on the field and failing to win the Super Bowl before its best free agents depart.

For 99 percent of us, there are ALWAYS going to be days and seasons where, no matter what we saw, somebody else saw something better. Getting upset by that is a sure route to chaser insanity. My own personal example, on June 5, I saw/documented six tornadoes, five from the Morton storm. But not the Morton tornado, because I had started on the next storm north, which did produce a couple tornadoes but then fizzled. I could obsess over the fact that I missed the most photogenic tornado of the day, or I could be pleased that I got six others, a few of which were pretty photogenic in their own right. And by making the right maneuvers and having good luck, I was able to catch up to the Morton storm from behind, which is not always possible. I choose the latter thinking option, being happy I got six tornadoes rather than being unhappy over what I did not get. Being unhappy over a successful day or a successful season because someone else was more successful is a route to craziness. Because on most days and in almost every season, someone else WILL be more successful. Of course I would love to have started out on the Morton storm or to have been in the Dakotas the past 10 days or so, but the fact that those things did not happen does not reduce the fact that I had an excellent day on June 5 (after a long drought of such days) and an above-average season for me. If I let these things bother me very much, I would have quit chasing years ago. And missed a lot of great experiences as a result.

 

[Tony Laubach]

At least for me, Northern Plains tornadoes in late June might as well be in Northern Russia, I’m never going to be able to chase up there with the consistency needed to catch these rare performers. As such, they don’t really factor in to my personal season quality assessment which is focused on the times and places I can realistically chase. For those that can do that, my hat’s off to you as this latest stretch rivals pretty much any legendary stretch in chasing history.

That's usually why I never factor the southeast into my equation... I chase down there for work and if it weren't for that, I'd be hard-pressed to do anything across Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee... while I do include the tri-state area of Southern IL, Southeast MO, and Northwest AR as I have ties there, I usually disregard anything in the southeast.

North Dakota also gets a pass for me as that is well beyond my favored area. South Dakota, on the other hand, does get factored in, but coming off that 3,000 mile round trip road trip, I just had no desire to make that haul despite how juicy the setups may or may not have looked.

As I mentioned, truthfully the only day that stings so bad is Wellfleet cause that would've been a no-brainer chase three hours from home, but it was the ONE DAMN WEEK they decided to get us all into headquarters for training, so I was a hard out no matter what. Bad timing, unfortunately. If I had my choice and was going to absolutely have to miss something, I would've scheduled the training for this passed week just cause it was all northern plains that I may/may not have chased on my own.

I agree with Greg and Tony. There is no logical reason why something we saw should seem less special just because someone else saw something better. This goes for an individual chase day too. Contentment requires being satisfied with what you saw, even if someone else saw something better that day or a different day. But it's easier said than done. As a chase vacationer, I am all too familiar with the feeling of missing stuff before or after my chase trip. But it doesn't get any easier. It's particularly frustrating as I get older and more acutely aware that I have fewer chase trips ahead of me than behind me. When the hell will I *finally* be able to spend the amount of time chasing that I want to?!? Now that I finally have the ability to work remotely, it seems that now it's family obligations holding me back. This year was exceptional, with all three kids having graduations. Hopefully next year will finally provide some more freedom.

I agree with this to a small extent... again, I had an incredible season. It just rain out of juice for me at the end, and work/'burn out' had settled in (I have to wonder with NO headquarters work trip what may have changed outside Wellfleet. The misses, while very fresh, don't tend to linger cause they, too, will vanish from the headlines, but I will always have ready access to everything I saw prior. Again, recency bias is a big now factor, and right now, it's been all the misses. And I have the fortunate situation to chase whenever I want, so a lot of that is on me.

So I'll move on from that and see where things stack up. The year, technically, is only halfway over even as the height of the tornado season is behind us. Colorado is a funny place, and I always hold out hope for a sneaky day or two in August. July is historically my deadest month as I don't venture too far after a season full of miles, and the setups tend to be WAY off for a one-and-done deal, so unless I sneak something close, I typically lie down in July. If August spits out anything remotely on the level of Yuma 2023, then I'll revisit this thread. I think I said earlier that I was one more good tornado chase away from putting 2025 at the top of my list, so there's still six months to go to.

But to end this babble... I'm definitely putting 2025 in the top 3 for me right now, whether it gets to #1 remains to be seen, but if nothing else noteworthy happens for me the rest of the year, then 2023 will probably remain #1. I know this is only important to me, myself, and I, so it's not important to anyone else reading this. But I'm a numbers guy, and I like to do this, so I'll keep simmering on it and see how I feel once the stings of the recent misses clears and my focus returns on how truly epic it was for me.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

And I have the fortunate situation to chase whenever I want, so a lot of that is on me.

This is probably my biggest pain point if there is one. It's not so much that I missed all the tornadoes (although I'd love to have seen them), it's that I could've been out there for any of them and I simply chose not to go, and have continued to make that choice more often the last two seasons. So I'm kind of kicking my own butt for not making the effort. But as Greg and Dan alluded to, the Northern Plains setups, while always desirable to chase, always seem so far away, not to mention the time commitment that's needed which increases the chances of conflict with the family schedule when decisions have to be made about going.

As I've mentioned before, I can usually move forward with little regret by taking the "If I'm not there, it didn't happen" approach. But, the last few days have certainly put that to the test. Maybe it's not such a bad thing that there's a little Fred Sanford in the back of my mind saying "Get out there ya big dummy!".

 

[JamesCaruso]

This is probably my biggest pain point if there is one. It's not so much that I missed all the tornadoes (although I'd love to have seen them), it's that I could've been out there for any of them and I simply chose not to go, and have continued to make that choice more often the last two seasons. So I'm kind of kicking my own butt for not making the effort. But as Greg and Dan alluded to, the Northern Plains setups, while always desirable to chase, always seem so far away, not to mention the time commitment that's needed which increases the chances of conflict with the family schedule when decisions have to be made about going.

As I've mentioned before, I can usually move forward with little regret by taking the "If I'm not there, it didn't happen" approach. But, the last few days have certainly put that to the test. Maybe it's not such a bad thing that there's a little Fred Sanford in the back of my mind saying "Get out there ya big dummy!".

Unless chasing is your job, I don't think there is any way to avoid considering probabilities when deciding whether it's worth chasing on a given day. Every day requires a cost/benefit, or risk/reward analysis. Even on chase vacations, I'll often decide a particular setup isn't worth the drive, especially if it would also result in a longer haul the next day. I've said this before, but when there's maybe a 1% chance of seeing something great on a certain day, you have to ask yourself if you'd be willing to make that drive 100 times to see it. Then there's the human element - call it complacency, but, like gambling, if you win the jackpot one night, maybe the next day you pocket your winnings and go home, because what are the odds you're going to win again?? Sometimes it's discouragement - to stick with the gambling analogy, why double-down on losses, and throw good money after bad? This was my thinking on El Reno in 2013, after a string of bad luck, a decision I still regret. Even this year, after a frustrating sequence from 5/16 - 5/18, and having to go home for family stuff, I was so discouraged that I had no motivation to get back out. My son and I came back out on Memorial Day, instead of on the Friday before, which resulted in missing the Akron tornado that day and other stuff that weekend. Of course, it's not just about the drive, it's also about other things you'd be giving up to chase, like work, family time, or other personal time. For example there were reasons to get back home on El Reno day, and there were reasons to enjoy part of Memorial Day weekend at home with family, and to give my son time to celebrate his graduation with friends, before heading out.

 

[William Monfredo]

I have a few thoughts about the odd, rare event: The Dickens-Wellfleet storm in Lincoln County, Nebraska on June 16.
With my home bias in play, I did not drive four hours away. I had possible storms in my area of the 2-percent tornado-risk that day.

First, what was it? It started as a landspout lasting 8 minutes that travelled less than a mile.
After an 8 minute pause, it developed into a mesocyclonic tornado that moved mostly south for 3 miles over the next 3/4 of an hour.
Humans can walk that fast. A walk-up tornado? Chuck a bottle into the storm like Bill Paxton in the movies.

It reminded me of the Jarrell, TX 1997 slight-risk F-5 that I did not see. The environments both featured a cold front, high instability & low shear, starting as a landspout, then a “real” tornado. The Nebraska twister moved slowly south, the Texas one propagated deviantly to the southwest.

What appeared unusually fascinating to me with this 2025 storm…
the rotational couplet first appeared so much on the western edge of the storm, it almost seemed like a mistake.
I hardly believed what I was seeing, and noted that the NWS took their good ol' time issuing that warning, too.

But, here’s the kicker: Whereas 20 tornadoes occurred in the San Antonio to Dallas area of TX on the day of the Jarrell tornado,
the Dickens-Wellfleet tornado was the only supercellular tornado in Nebraska that entire day.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Trey Greenwood (Convective Chronicles) analyzes this event at about 3:07 into this video and also mentions the comparison to Jarrell. (Note this is a forecast video for a day or two after that, but Trey adds this post-mortem analysis of Dickens-Wellfleet at 3:07).

I’ll tell you one personal learning from this is that I will never automatically discount a cold front again. I always associated cold fronts with strong linear forcing and failed to differentiate between that scenario and a slower moving cold front without a big temperature contrast on the cool side. The western OK panhandle storm of June 8 this year is another example of a storm I missed by discounting a cold front.

 

[Todd Lemery]

The state of the season for me is pretty sad. Due to a truckload of personal obligations that seemed to be strategically placed, I’ve barely been out and am now looking at this Friday-Saturday for my next chance. I’d have to cancel stuff both Friday and Saturday to pull it off which could easily put me in the doghouse.
Watching multiple photogenic tornadoes that seemed like everybody and their mother were on makes it a bit tougher to swallow. I’m happy for all of the chasers who’ve been lifted out of their droughts this year though. A drought is a little easier to swallow by not being out there than it is having a drought when you’re out there day after day!