2025-03-02 EVENT: TX/OK

[Brett Roberts]

An early season cold core or quasi-cold core event appears possible tomorrow as a seemingly well-timed, compact 500 mb closed low kicks out over the southern High Plains.

Most NWP guidance depicts an initial arc of showers or weak convection developing around noon in the TX Panhandle. It quickly lifts NE toward S KS, followed by a cold/dry punch aloft that could lead to a focused area of destabilization and low-topped severe storm potential. With low-mid 50s dew points and temperatures potentially recovering into the low 60s, we'll have to see whether robust cells can develop along an arcing boundary in the E TX Panhandle into W OK during the 20z-23z timeframe. Today's CAM guidance has been surprisingly optimistic overall. NSSL MPAS runs even depict substantial UH from storms in this regime. HRRR/RAP forecasts of 0-3 km AGL CAPE exceed 100 J/kg over much of the area at 21z.

Pending morning satellite and model trends, targets like Shamrock, Elk City, or Canadian may be in play for southern Plains folks looking to break in the gear for 2025. Funny, we had a moisture-starved weekend setup in the same region last year on March 24 that teased us with some impressive funnels and RFD cuts. Compared to that setup, tomorrow will have weaker low-level shear, but perhaps modestly better moisture and more manageable LCLs.

 

[James Wilson]

Yesterday was basically a new gear test though we did get some structure and a shear funnel for our efforts. It did try a couple times but it ended up as we suspected.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Yesterday pretty much picked up where synoptically impressive Oklahoma setups left off last year. You could watch CAM forecasts overnight Saturday into Sunday morning start dialing back on significant UH as they trended steadily toward more extensive morning/lunchtime convection. IMO with a narrower and less cold-pool-y morning arc of elevated convection, we probably would've seen a solid tube or two in SW OK. Watching the Quanah storm go from ominous to no base in about 3 minutes flat was a callback to what I saw near Seiling on May 25 last year, the last in a season-long string of painful OK setups. The only thing missing yesterday was rain shrouded nocturnal nonsense to twist the knife in, but it looks like we should make up for that tonight.