State of the Chase Season 2026

[Jeff Duda]

I realize this may not have any scientific validity whatsoever, although I do remember @Jeff Duda several years ago mentioning something to the effect there are only so many troughs we can realistically expect the atmosphere to generate over time, and a lot of early activity can in fact exhaust the potential for later. I could very well be mischaracterizing this, so don’t quote me. Hopefully Jeff can comment, and offer the latest thinking on the subject, since that was a number of years ago. But as you can see the concept stuck with me and makes me worry every year that I see early activity!

Ha, I remember that discussion from some years ago. Also, I cannot defend that position with scientific data - as far as I'm aware there is no "budget" for troughs that the atmosphere obeys. It just seems to be a sense I have.

So here we are again...if there's going to be a quiet period between March and June I'd rather have it in March. Let's see if it gives way to an active period during a time of year where the days are longer, warmer temperatures are more likely, and we're less likely to see Gulf-clearing cold fronts.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Looks quiet in the near-term as a dominant western U.S. ridge shuts the pattern down and allows for an early spring heat wave to expand from the western U.S. into the Plains through late March. Possible there could be a few shortwaves embedded within a period of flattern zonal flow March 24-31 that allow for a crashing-cold-front style storm opportunity somewhere in the Midwest during that time frame but I'm mostly turning my attention to early April at this point. Not much to get excited about with respect to specifics, but global ensembles and other teleconnections are starting to flicker in the first half of April.

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I rambled a little more about it in a new blog here if you want to lean in: SKYDRAMA.NET • Pattern Quiets Down - Next Run of Severe Storms in Early April?

For some reason I didn't get the bell notifications for new posts in this thread starting with this one even though I'm supposedly "watching" it (I'm getting them for other "watched" threads such as the "THAT'S A LOT" one), but I'd certainly take this since I'm on the Founder's Tour for Trey Greenwood's Storm Chaser Coaching project which runs April 3-12. I knew it was a bit of a gamble going that early, but for that reason that tour was less expensive, and there have been plenty of years (including some recent) where May hasn't been all it's cracked up to be.