State of the Chase Season 2024

[John Homenuk]

Regarding the season thus far, I would have to agree with Brett more than John in the posts above. Yes, it definitely has been above average in terms of numbers of tornadoes and numbers of promising setups. But aside from April 26th, and a few back-to-back days in central TX that I get the sense not a lot of chasers went after (though some smart ones did), most of the tornadoes were after dark, hard to see due to low clouds and rain, and/or in poor terrain. So despite the large number of tornadoes, I think it has been somewhat disappointing in terms of chasing, except probably for people who chased the aforementioned events. But like Brett said, there were many promising-looking setups in prime chase territory that just did not work out.

All that said, we are just now getting into peak chase season, there are signs of the current pattern changing, and there will be lots of opportunities, including a lot of time in late May and June that is still now beyond the reach of reliable forecasting. So no reason to lose hope at this point, unless you are tied into one particular period that does not work out.

First, I totally respect your opinion so I don't want this to come across as argumentative or brash. But isn't this highlighted part kind of the point? To have an outbreak of photogenic tornadoes in late April followed by three straight days of visible/photogenic tornadoes in Texas all before May 5th is a bit of a feat in itself when it comes to any storm chasing season. How can we actually sit here and call that disappointing if it's not just a personal bias at play? You specifically said it has been disappointing "except for people who chased the aforementioned events". Which reads to me as - it hasn't been disappointing from a chasing perspective, I just wasn't there to see it.

Just my opinion, and at the end of the day we each rank our chasing seasons differently. Here's hoping we all have nothing to disagree about in about 3 weeks time after this stretch is over

 

[Brett Roberts]

I am a bit flummoxed as to the overall sentiment regarding the season so far both here and on social media. The 16-day stretch we just saw in late April and early May was one of the most active such periods on record and included several photogenic tornadoes in multiple states from multiple storm systems. There were opportunities for everyone who was willing or able to get out there. In fact, I can't remember such a favorable period during the start of peak season in the Plains or Midwest since 2019 - and before that you're probably going back much further to find a comparison. The dilution of such an impressive stretch across the storm chasing community is confusing to me and makes me wonder if folks are simply just judging the season based on their own ability (or inability) to chase these events. Anyway...

IMO it partly depends on whether you're measuring on an absolute or relative scale. The early season was fairly impressive for the early season by any reasonable metric, no doubt. There are plenty of years where virtually nothing memorable happens before mid-May, and this year wasn't like that at all. Still, the early season is the less desirable and less prolific part of chase season for various reasons, so it's not like even an 80th percentile March-April period is sufficient to make the entire season amazing. I think we should appreciate what we got, but hypothetically if the rest of the season turned out to be a dud (and there's always that fear when the early season pattern is so consistently active, plus there's almost unanimous agreement already that June is all but cancelled), I don't think 2024 would stack up as a banner year in the final analysis.

Then there's the other factor I mentioned already: wasted potential. I will admit this has a strong component of geographic bias. The southern Plains were teased relentlessly the past six weeks with a parade of negative-tilt troughs we could only dream of most recent years. Every well-advertised event in this region crumbled before our eyes from a chasing perspective, and there were probably 4-5 of those, more than any other early season I can remember. Anyone in this region trying to be selective and shake off other commitments to chase only on higher-confidence days probably got burned badly, as frankly has been the case for many consecutive years now.

To reiterate, none of this changes the fact that April 26 was an historic, top-end chase day. Outside that, we had several good overperformer setups that were not obvious even the morning of, a.k.a. the lifeblood of the modern chasing era. Also to clarify, I was able to see tornadoes on April 26 and May 2, so I'm not even complaining from the perspective of my own season. The gap in fortunes between hardcore chasers vs. casual or constrained folks trying to cobble together 3-5 days a year when they can escape commitments only continues widening ad infinitum since the early 2010s.

How can we actually sit here and call that disappointing if it's not just a personal bias at play? You specifically said it has been disappointing "except for people who chased the aforementioned events". Which reads to me as - it hasn't been disappointing from a chasing perspective, I just wasn't there to see it.

In the same spirit of trying to walk the line of being overly argumentative: this reads to me as "I'm from Minneapolis, and most of the setups that looked good within 400 miles of here have performed as well or better than advertised." I don't mean this negatively at all; I think it's just hard to appreciate how brutally the OK/N TX contingent has been whiplashed through through a series of 10% hatched or better outlook days that ended in zero visible daytime tornadoes or even structure, but sometimes destructive nighttime tornadoes (in other words, the worst of all worlds).

 

[Kem Poyner]

I am not being disrespectful, but for several years contributors seem to only view the season through when they will be out there. This thread should discuss the entire season as a whole and not just when you will be on your chase vacation. I have heard several posts that actually say " I won't be out there then so I don't care".

 

[James Wilson]

I see both views here.

I saw the tornadoes on 4/26 in NE/IA and had a few others like Stillwater and Stinnett in that time frame BUT I also was out on the high risk day in OK that was after dark. The Stillwater tornado was the only real tornado during light on that day as well. Timing has been off on some days and other days were just too late to see much. That all started for me on the Alta Vista day were we saw the tornado RIGHT at dark. I think most views will be impacted on if you have seen much or missed 4/26. For me this has already been a great year as I was on those days in NE/IN/OK/TX but also a pain to be out on badly timed days. It looks like the season will ramp up again for the end of May and I expect to make the most of it by being out regardless.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Boiling it down to its most simplest form, when the thread is the "State of the Chase Season", it should probably be viewed through the most current lens. Right now, the state is not great because it's pretty quiet at the heart of the season (although SPC has a couple of slights in the coming days). A few weeks back, it was tremendous. Who knows what the next 30 days brings.

I think seasons need to be evaluated through several different lenses, starting broadly and honing in from there. How much opportunity did we have? This year so far, the atmosphere has offered ample opportunities, which hasn't been the case for many years, especially on the southern plains. Have those opportunities yielded tornadoes? Maybe not as many as expected on a regular basis, but definitely has delivered on multiple days. Were those tornadoes/storms quality? Many were, but just as many weren't. Was I there to catch them? Some of them, but not all.

Personally, I've seen more tornadoes at this point in the season than any other time in my career. Will it continue? Who knows. I can only catch what's served up and hopefully the atmosphere will give us a few more opportunities so the ball can be in my court to make the season what it is.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Season quality’s always been relative and depends on each individual’s schedule constraints and whether you picked the right targets on the days you were out. This year so far is like 2012. If you made it out for April 14 that year, you had a great season because of that one day. If you were like most that has to schedule a fixed trip in advance for late May, 2012 wasn’t that great (unless you got the Rago day). 2003 was a legendary spring, but a bad one for me as I busted on every big day.

I’d consider this to be a good year for those with the ability to chase when the atmosphere says it’s time to go. That’s because like 2012, the best synoptically-evident day made itself known in advance enough to make arrangements to be there. You can’t ask the Plains for much more than that most years.

The ones who can chase everything always have better perceptions of a season than most. They get the northern Plains and Colorado gems on the one out of 20 2-percent days that goes crazy. For them, that makes a year stellar when for the rest of us it was “meh”.

In my attempt to rank season/event quality objectively a few years ago, I gave points for late May events that had easy forecasts, as those were factors that maximized the number of chasers who would be there to witness it. Dodge City is the gold standard not just for its innate quality, but that it happened in a way and time for most of us to be there to see it.

 

[Jeff House]

Let's get this derailed thread back on track.

Next week looks significantly better than it did just 36 hours ago. Operational models have followed the AI versions into southwest flow aloft. Of course, it's too early to nail down days or even regions; so, don't expect 15% outlooks just yet. Maybe Thursday or Friday 4-8 Day for next week?

For example the Euro Op favors Tuesday over Monday; but, that could change, because everything else is still on Monday. Then the rest of the week will depend on that wave, boundaries, and all kinds of other variables. Another wave or two is likely. It's a get out there and ask questions later type of forecast. That's not a gamble in late May.

I expect 3-4 chase days next week, but the exact days cannot be placed attm. If there is a down day, we don't know that either. Then there is always a possible bonus day early or late that we can't see now. Mesoscale accident.

This does not mean we are going out there. I try to forecast each sequence for whoever may be going or is out there. Maybe we'll end up joining; maybe not. I believe posts should include a forecast. I don't care isn't a valid post.

Hopefully tomorrow I see most of the trash on page 8 is removed by Mods. This isn't Target Area, but we can do better.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Once we get through this week I’m more optimistic than a was a couple of days ago. Three of my chase partners have to fly in when there’s going to be at least a few days with a “chance” of producing. It looks like that will be happening starting next week. A quick looks shows there will be plenty of moisture and shear to make things interesting. The details are far from being worked out. My biggest oh-oh coming up is my worry that the better moisture seems like it might struggle to get far enough West to get in a better chase area. Beggars can’t be choosers and everything is far enough out where it’ll change five times. It looks promising though.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Sure, the "wasted" potential of some of the recent setups was disappointing from a chaser standpoint, especially as has been pointed out, patterns like that don't come around in late April-early May every year (or even every several years, lately). The time to fret about details for individual days will come, but the SCP maps are lighting up like a Christmas tree for the foreseeable future starting next Monday, which sure beats the alternative.

 

[Matt Hunt]

I feel like every year this thread is full of doom & gloom! From my perspective, as someone who has yet to chase this season, I feel it's been a more active season than usual. It seems most years we're worried nothing is going to kick off, and once we get to May that concern grows even stronger. But this period of downtime hasn't been that long, and it looks like next week should be very active. Lucky for me, my chasecation covers all of next week. It actually starts Thursday, but Monday (mayyyybe Sunday) will likely be my first day chasing. I'm too far away to get to Texas on Thursday, and I have no desire to chase in Dixie Alley.

GFS has been very consistent with SW flow over the plains next week, over the last several model runs. CFS and GEFS are in general agreement. No guarantees that any of these days will be a slam dunk from a chasing standpoint, but there should at least be storms each day.

 

[Jason N]

Next week looks significantly better than it did just 36 hours ago. Operational models have followed the AI versions into southwest flow aloft. Of course, it's too early to nail down days or even regions; so, don't expect 15% outlooks just yet. Maybe Thursday or Friday 4-8 Day for next week?

I got the feeling that looking at the weeklies and operational stuff that 23-28 ... maybe even out to 30may looks like a good stretch of days.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Jeff can overrule me, but personally I think rumination on the pluses and minuses of a season are fair game for this thread. The thread allows discussion of individual approaches to chase vacation planning, so some subjective impressions colored by individual experiences and chase vacations is unavoidable. Subjectivity is inherent in all of this: We all know the quality of an event or a season comes down to far more than the clinical tornado count statistics. It’s understandable that people plan chase vacations around climatological peaks, and it can be frustrating when the climatological peak has no activity, regardless of how great it was earlier. To me, that’s part of the frustration with this season, that the peak (for big days anyway) appears to have been too early for many to take advantage of. Admittedly, I'm partly mad at myself for not keeping my schedule more free of commitments to allow me to react to those larger events. But is is a place to commiserate in that, who else would understand the frustration? And who really expected there to be so many early events, and with some sustained activity in between too?!? To Brett’s point, in some ways I didn’t miss much anyway. And to Matt’s point, definitely true that if nothing had happened yet I’d be worried about that too! A lot is a matter of tone and degree - it comes across a little different to say “I don’t care” about a week that can’t be chased, but understandable to say you’re specifically only analyzing a week you can chase, or not as worried about a week you can’t.

In any event, hopefully the upcoming pattern makes everyone happy, including me! I am planning to head out Sunday, but I’ll be out there four weeks and only have about 10 PTO days to use, so I’ll be more selective about the better days - too soon to say which those will be next week. A little concerned to hear June being talked down already, hopefully it’s decent at least to mid-month so I don’t end up bailing early like I did last year. Also my longtime chase partner can’t meet me until the first two weeks of June so I hope for his sake too that there is some sustained activity then. But I am just trying not to worry about it too much yet, there is just too much uncertainty at this range.

 

[Jason N]

CFS 22-29 MAY and GEFS 20-27 MAY



EPS 21 -28 MAY / CFS WEEKLY PRECIP 27-03JUN (Stronger Signal SRN GREAT PLAINS)



CFS 500gph 22- 29May / GEFS 500gph Anomaly 24 May





CFS Runs today meshing better with the ensembles and the operationals' , so I would agree about the general trend towards potentially a good stretch from 23 to 28 May. The signals above for precip look to be centered further north which doesn't align to where the deeper moisture is further to the south, but if the mid-level winds presented on the Ensembles are any indication that the potential for the EPS/GEFS solution seems plausible and as we get closer in time will certainly shake out more details. Scrolling back to my last post on May 8 showing these maps, not alot has changed with the MJO, but as I said before that what I posted then wouldn't stay the same, (it didn't), which goes to show what a week can do.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Jeff can overrule me, but personally I think rumination on the pluses and minuses of a season are fair game for this thread. The thread allows discussion of individual approaches to chase vacation planning, so some subjective impressions colored by individual experiences and chase vacations is unavoidable.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

IMHO/experience, multiple days of modest SW flow over good moisture, with late-May climatology working for you is all a chasecationer needs. As always this time of year, details are only knowable day to day, so it’s pointless to fret over specifics now.

At the very least, this pattern is a far cry from many recent late Mays. If I may quote John Homenuk on X, “this is about as good as it gets.”