State of the Chase Season 2024

[JamesCaruso]

Unfortunately, both the GEFS and EPS seem to agree on meager moisture at least through 5/19, with the exception of the GEFS for some areas but only east of I-35.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm booking my first class ticket on PanClovis Airlines tonight!.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

When I was out chasing last year, the Clovis storm on May 24th was the peak of my chase and on my last day too. I've never seen a storm with such ferocity. Bit of enhanced flow over that region and it can definitely still produce the goods.

Having a look at GEFS and EPS, I do tend to agree with James. Fortunately, I don't fly out until 20/05 this year.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The extended forecast for western sectors will be void of any major chase opportunities after Monday's day at the zoo. I'm assuming the next **remote** chance might be next weekend, but it's not looking that exciting ATM. I'm starting to see the dreaded NW flow wording in some NWS discussions. Too early.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

In keeping with the running theme for "classic" southern/central Plains high risks for over a decade now; yesterday proved not great for chasing with the bulk of the significant tornado activity occurring after dark while doing major damage in populated areas.

After a couple of potentially active days in parts of the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley/mid-South, I do think we quiet down for perhaps 10-14 days, which sucks for people who booked tours or chasecations in that timeframe. However even "active" chase seasons always have ebbs and flows, and May can surprise even in a seemingly unfavorable large-scale pattern. I suspect we will have at least one more decent sequence of synoptic-scale days coming down the pipeline in later May through mid-June.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I know y’all are probably sick of me whining, but if I can’t share my frustration with other chasers here, then who else can I vent to that would ever understand how it feels?

I was planning to head out on May 13, right after spending Mothers Day with my wife, and seeing my daughters’ dance recital on Saturday. Their recital is usually a week later in May. So this was going to be the earliest I am able to head out in like 10 years. And yet somehow, incredibly, it’s still not early enough. I feel like I missed all the best action already. Even though yesterday was largely a bust from a chasing perspective, I would have loved to be on the ground for the drama and nervous energy of a day like that. Not to mention 4/26 and several days last week. Every year I say that I will jet out for a big synoptically-evident event forecast days in advance. But I always end up failing to pull the trigger, either because I failed to keep my work or family calendar open enough, feel that it’s a bad time to break away from work on short notice, or just feel like it’s not a sure enough thing to justify the inconvenience, time and money.

For my actual chase trip, I can stay out for over 4 weeks this year, until Fathers Day. It’s not all vacation time; I’ll be working remotely, but still should get more opportunity to chase than ever before, since I started in 1996. But I’m already looking at the first week, maybe even the first two weeks, being in the crapper. Leaving little more than the usual two weeks left by then (if anything happens even then).

Last year I could have stayed on the Plains three weeks. But after just 11 days, it became apparent nothing else was on the horizon for the first half of June. So I just went home. I fear a similar reduction in viable chase time this year.

The years I only had two weeks, I tried to time the best possible pattern. I don’t need to do that this time. My end date is set no matter what. So I might as well just get out there. Even if the pattern’s not the best, it's better than nothing. But on the other hand, I’m not interested in working out of a hotel room by myself for no reason. So if there’s just northwest flow or no flow, I will probably wait a week before heading out.

basing success purely off of capturing tornadoes I think sets people up for failure. I'm spending time and money, am away from family and responsibilities, and I didn't get one darn tornado! , repeat that for several years and I am not surprised people have the attitudes towards it the way they do. I site JamesCaruso as possibly one of those and he can correct me if I am wrong.

Jason wrote the above a week or so ago. Jason, you said to correct you if you’re wrong. You are. For me it’s really not about frustration relative to time and money. It’s profound disappointment over loving something so much, looking forward to it all year, practically having to devise an algorithm to figure out when would be the best time to chase relative to professional and family commitments and weather patterns, only to see it vaporize just as it’s in reach. A small window of opportunity opens, and it closes before you know it, with little to show for it more often than not. This year’s window was supposed to be open longer than ever, but it already seems to be closing. It doesn’t have to be a tornado. But some years, especially recent ones, there aren’t even many supercells that are not HP grunge.

Hopefully the season keeps cranking after just a week or so lull. I’ll be very happy if this post doesn’t age well and I turn out to have been whining for nothing. But if I’m right, I’m already warning my family and work colleagues that they are not going to want to be around me.

 

[Jason N]

I totally respect that!, and I appreciate your response. From the angle of loving a thing, I am in that same boat man. I just don't have the family to have to factor in, but it's just as annoying and sometimes aggravating when you have limited time from work, that's my situation as work defines my life!!.. though it shouldn't, money and living require it!! .. but yeah, I wasn't trying to pick on you, more just jesting to the points I think a lot of us feel, you are just very vocal about it! lol .. not a bad thing at all.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Season seems to be transitioning into the "now typical," late May climatology, dominated by a sudden shift in upper air patterns, void of any favorable opportunities. It's like the storm Gods wake up one morning and say, "Ha Ha! Lets pull the plug on those idiots who waited to chase the once classic late May period!" Gone are the days of gentlemanly transitions from big, fast-moving systems to prolonged periods of sloshing dryline action. Now days, the evolution is: big spring systems -- cutoffs -- zonal -- NW flow -- ridge -- go home.

Nothing in the extended has me logging into my Holiday Inn Express app to make reservations. Looks like some really "far out" convection is possible late this weekend from an anemic-looking cut off low positioned over the four-corners area. Something to watch, but not enough to get me out the door -- yet.

It's still too early to call the rest of the season a bust, but we are approaching the middle of May and none of the models are jiggy about the extended.

 

[Jason N]

by 15 May, I'll have a good idea of what will or "won't" be happening. if it turns into a microcosm of events here and there and last-minute upgrades from marginal to slight, so be it. Less chaser activity, and I will go far and wide to chase near sunset photogenic structure over tubes, even though I am always hoping for it.

 

[Bobby Little]

Somewhat flustrating season for me so far. Spent 2nd week April with a OK/TX bust followed up by nocturnal s ( i dont do) rare early morning La. (was too late). Chasing catch-ups in the Al/Fl panhandle with no success into Florida.
Skipped the big late April event for personal reasons. UGGGGG!!
Chased Michigan yesterday. Thankfull that this chase was in the home state . Even though my initial target was spot on.SW MI. corner , I choose to skip early"initiation" that proved to be better than the my eventual flexible "position.. wait for mode" choice.
I did catch 2 nado storms speeding up to 45-50, lifting to mesos that raced over my head. Not the best choices sooooo far this year.
Will miss the rest of May going to Ireland. Do they have Tornados in Ireland?
hopefully June is Good. good luck to all!

 

[Jason N]

starting to focus on 23 to 1 June time frame. most of the models only take this out to 24May currently.

I used June's NMME precip anomaly, which seemed to line up with the CFS height anomaly for the end of May. I won't speak to whether this is trustworthy, or not, I am putting it here so in a week, I can come back and look to see if the pattern remains consistent, it won't, but it's a short-term archive lol .. but at the moment, it suggests a northern plains signal. (MJO Below)

 

[JamesCaruso]

As of now, there’s almost no chance I am heading out to the Plains on Monday the 13th as originally planned. Euro looks awful through the end of its run on the 19th. Doesn’t look like it would be any better if it went out a few more days either. Tack on the period shown by the maps Jason posted, and the longest-ever 4 week trip I was so excited about appears to already be down to about 2 weeks, and who knows if those will even be any good.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I could use a break, we have seen 5 tornadoes, but poor decisions and having to be home right before Hawley and Ft. Stockton make my season pale compared to a fair chunk of chasers. Still, being retired has its perks, I love the high plains, so here's hoping late May/June is good, I have a hard time believing this is the end of the season already.

 

[Jeff House]

I'm going to quit the hobby and save for international eclipse trips. If I badmouth it enough, will we get a trough?

CFS and ECMWF weeklies fill that hideous eastern trough late May. Intermittently Plains heights are manageable. Could get some weak systems with mesoscale set-ups. That's normal late May climo. I do believe the above normal activity is going to calm down. Normal in late May is usually pretty workable though.

State of the Balance of the Chase Season is typical 2020s.

 

[Warren Faidley]

You know it's bad when the long range forecasts don't include NW flow events over the SP. So much for plan B.

Plan C is E. Colorado which is still a possibility.

The overall lack of RH out west (and a serious cap) will limit the possibilities of "sneak attacks," which was plan D.

It's looking like a very busy hurricane season, so I might cut my loses and focus on tropical weather which is plan E.