2025 Chase Season Epilogue

[Dan Robinson]

It feels a little strange posting this end-of-season recap thread on the same day as one of the better tornadoes of the decade in western Nebraska, but that's storm chasing for you. So, how was your season?

Despite logging 8 "stat-padder" tornadoes, it was a below-average spring for me. Of course, season quality is subjective from chaser to chaser - it all depends on if the days you chose to go out produce spectacularly, and even if they do, you still have to make all of the right decisions on those good days. That means one chaser can be having the season of their lives, while others are struggling. I did not come away with this season with a "wall hanger" tornado - but then again, I don't most years. The inverse of this was last year, when I added three all-time best tornado intercepts to my logs in a personal record-breaking season, one that not all chasers came away with great results in. I see my 2025 in that context, simply the law of averages playing itself out.

My big catch of the season was Grinnell, Kansas on the 18th, a close tornado experience with stark visuals and sound.

The big and defining event of the season for me, however, was missing the May 16 tornado in St. Louis. It was a monumental failure of a costly, decade-plus home target bias that hopefully I can just let go of now. The silver lining of it is that after forensically recapping that day, I just don't see a scenario where I could have reasonably seen it coming in time. Supercells (that appeared to be elevated) were entering the metro with a dewpoint of 52F at Lambert airport at 1PM. The DP at Scott AFB/MidAmerica had just shot up to 66F just prior to the tornado - which was the one thing that could have altered my day had I noticed it. Still, I expected the frontal zone to be in the southern Metro (south of I-270/I-255), oriented NE/SW with the storm of the day well north of it. Despite a couple of fake-out RFD surges, the storm appeared to have a dominant northeasterly motion that would pull it farther north away from the front. The only way I would have caught it is if I'd just parked downtown in the morning and sat there, an action that would have made no sense given the setup - under no scenario would I have done that with incipient supercells in the better environment to the east. In a nutshell, it was just an impossible situation that no other chasers saw coming either - so I'm not going to dwell on it much going forward.

I try to make it a practice to focus on the things to be thankful for, despite the misses. My season was free of major incidents or problems, and I *did* see 8 tornadoes. I didn't have to use up a lot of PTO to make my trips. My gear all performed like it's supposed to. Any year when I can get out there is a good one!

Spring 2025 totals:
Plains expedition trips: 2
Plains miles: 3,968
Plains days on the road: 5
Plains chase days: 4
Plains tornadoes: 3
Midwest tornadoes: 5
States covered: 4 (Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri Illinois)

I have all of my 2025 Plains season logs on my site here:

Great Plains 2025 Storm Chasing Expedition Logs

 

[Tony Laubach]

I'd definitely feel safe to say that my season isn't done yet (Colorado is known for summer-time surprises; Yuma 2023)... but given I am out of action through this week due to a work trip in PA (so I missed yesterday's tornado three hours from home AND the baseball hail that hammered my house at 4am), I'd say I'm probably far enough along to epilogue my season to this point...

I've had great debate (three-day cross country trip allowed for plenty of windshield time) regarding where this season stacks up for me, and it is among one of the highest. Going in to this season, I would've rated my best years as follows...

#1 2023; #2 2016; #3 2009; #4 2010; #5 2008

Those seasons after #3 would probably shift with a bit more recollection of the chases, but the top 3 are pretty solid years..

2025 ranks as one of my highest in tornado quality by far... particularly that May 14-23 stint that included the photogenic landspouts in Nebraska, the Blodgett tornado, Scott/Grinnell, Kansas event, plus Akron '25. Those on their own would've put it up in the top 3, but then came Morton, which even further elevates the season as a whole. I certainly have come away with some of the best images/video of my career. Hands down, Grinnell's encounter on I-70 and my clips of Morton rank among some of the best I have ever shot (and certainly the most 'viral').

I tend to sit on things for a bit before I race a ranking to #1. I did this with Akron 2023 despite 19 tornadoes and one of the most photogenic twin tornado sequences ever, but after stewing over it, it was an easy decision to let it take over the #1 chase spot. Now, there is NO change in that; June 21, 2023 is still the #1 chase of all time for me, but the season as a whole...

With the two tornadoes I saw last Friday in Nebraska, my running total is 36 for the season which is third all time (only behind 2023 [50] and 2010 [43]), so the numbers are definitely there. But the quality of a lot of those is hard to deny, even as the majority (as usual) are stat-padders.

I'm gonna give it through the summer... I'm probably one more good tornado chase away from making it the easy #1 (had I been home on June 16 to play that southwest Nebraska day, I wouldn't even be having this discussion). And even still, I'm thinking pretty hard about it now. 2023 had the quality, and it and 2016 could go back and forth, but it's hard to deny what 2025 has been as a whole.

Outside of tornadoes, the season has provided some great hail (April 17) and several good lightning opportunities, which usually come after June when our monsoon season kicks in, so I'm already well scored on that, too. Professionally, it's been a great year for me as well, highlighted with the live coverage of the Blodgett tornado. I feel like this season, I took so many lessons of years past, and it resulted in some awesome images. I was very deliberate in taking photos, making sure I shot the hell out of stuff, and let my video take a backseat (meaning I was using mounted cameras and just rolling). I made good decisions; didn't waffle around much on questionable days, and I was in good positions on the days that counted.

It's an easy top 3; and I imagine it's gonna find its way taking the crown as my best storm chasing season. I won't call it yet, but should another good tornado day loom for me, it will undoubtedly claim the spot with no further discussion needed.

TOP TORNADO DAYS OF 2025
1. June 5 (Morton/Lubbock) 10 Tornadoes
2. May 16 (Blodgett/Sikeston) 3 Tornadoes
3. May 18 (Scott/Grinnell) 6 Tornadoes
4. May 14 (Hershey/North Platte) 3 Tornadoes
5. April 17 (Fremont/Tabor) 3 Tornadoes

SEASON STATS AS OF JUNE 17
TOTAL LOGS: 34 (21 'Chases')
MILES: 22,058
TORNADOES: 36
TORNADO DAYS: 11
STATES CHASED: CO, WY, NE, KS, OK, TX, NM, IA, MO, IL, AR, TX, TN, MS, AL

 

[Andy Wehrle]

@Tony Laubach interesting that you rank 2009 as your No. 3. I wasn't actively chasing then (outside of local spotting outings, which were very sparse that year) but I remember it as one of the slowest seasons of all time; the only high-ceiling threat in the Plains being the April 26 high risk which (like every more recent Plains high risk post-4/14/12) was largely a dud that produced only one significant/photogenic tornado, really nothing at all of note in May and only the Goshen, WY tornado in early June providing some redemption for those chasers who were able to be on it. What else did you see that year?

 

[JamesCaruso]

@Tony Laubach interesting that you rank 2009 as your No. 3. I wasn't actively chasing then (outside of local spotting outings, which were very sparse that year) but I remember it as one of the slowest seasons of all time; the only high-ceiling threat in the Plains being the April 26 high risk which (like every more recent Plains high risk post-4/14/12) was largely a dud that produced only one significant/photogenic tornado, really nothing at all of note in May and only the Goshen, WY tornado in early June providing some redemption for those chasers who were able to be on it. What else did you see that year?

I had the same thought. I was chasing back then but I recall delaying my trip because it was so slow. I recall even VORTEX being stymied until Goshen.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I echo Andy and James's surprise at 2009 being a favorite. But I do recall one or two fairly big overperforming CO days, which might've been a factor for Tony. For the core of the Plains on reasonably foreseeable setups, it was pretty awful until June. Then I'd call June that year slightly above average, but not exceptional... with LaGrange WY of VORTEX-2 fame and Aurora NE being the highlights. Incidentally, 2009 was also the year that tortured me more than any other... after the Aurora day in mid-June (which I sat out due to frustration with preceding setups that were superficially similar), I spent a few weeks legitimately trying to convince myself that I needed to stop chasing for my sanity!

 

[John Farley]

2009 was a pretty good year for me, driven mostly by my best-ever Illinois day (where I lived then) with a photogenic long-track tornado near Roodhouse and Manchester on August 19 on a day with a setup very similar to today's, which produced multiple tornadoes in the same general area. But getting this thread back on track, I would rate this season thus far as above average for me. A month ago, when I drove 1625 miles to miss Arnett by 45 minutes or so and see nothing interesting the next day, I was ready to say one of my worst seasons ever. Pretty much resolved then not to go east of the Panhandles and western KS from my base area in southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico. But the first week of June changed my assessment of the season big time. June 5 was a top 5 all-time day for me with 5 or more tornadoes, even though I missed the most photogenic one near Morton. But I did get some good ones earlier in NM and later closer to Lubbock, and the Lubbock storm was one of the most intense I have ever seen. And that was one of 4 days in a row in which I caught something interesting, including a rotating wall cloud and likely funnel, hail accumulation, and a mud flow/rockslide within 30 miles of home on the 3rd, nice LP structure in NM on the 4th, and two tornadic supercells in the OK Panhandle on the 6th. (Still sticking to my resolution not to go chasing east of the Panhandles, though, as my experience that week reinforced the notion that I do not have to.)

And expanding the horizon a bit, a nice thundersnow stint in the NM mountains in early May and a couple days experiencing the rare combination of snow and hail (real hail, not just graupel, although there was some of that, too) at the same time. And earlier, April 25 was a pretty good day, too, with four supercells, most of them photogenic and with lots of hail, all within 50 miles or so of Santa Rosa, NM. For a variety of reasons, I am not in a position to chase as much as some of you are able to do, so given the amount that I can get out, I am quite happy with this season. And in Colorado, there is still potential for more, even though northeast Colorado is a bit out of reach for me, unless something happens when we will be driving through there on a road trip next month. But there is usually good lightning with the Monsoon in CO and NM (looks like it will start around Monday), and every once in a while it even offers up a surprise tornado.

States chased: CO, NM, KS, OK, TX.
Chase mileage: Around 3600 miles.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I don't wanna hijack this thread, so I opened a new one talking about my 2009 season...

Why 2009 Was One Of My Best/Favorite Seasons

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Despite some bouts of pessimism in the state of the season thread (including from myself, I admit) I think 2025 has turned out to be an at least average, if not slightly above-average chase season. Although there was a continuance of the annoying theme from recent years of high-ceiling synoptically evident days rearing their heads on the models and then either downtrending or inexplicably underperforming their potential (particularly in the "heart of the season," late April through May and during daylight), there has been a solid amount of quality activity spread throughout the season both spatially and temporally.

Between...
Early season mid-MS Valley and Dixie wedges (mostly at night, but a couple of daylight ones)
Tabor
SandhillsInsanity
Marion/Blodgett
Arnett/Grinnell/Greensburg 2.0
Akron
Morton and the days that surrounded it
Wellfleet
6/18 in Illinois
last night in ND

The only really dead period was those first 10-12 days of May, so if you had a vacation/tour outside of that there's a good chance there was at least something to chase.

For me personally, the frustrating thing has been the lack of setups within 3 hours of home (mainly eastern Iowa/northern Illinois) that I could chase on a workday without booking PTO. The early season stuff was moisture-starved and/or after dark up this way, and Wednesday was too far south too early in the day. I haven't been able to chase since the day after Arnett.

 

[JamesCaruso]

The only really dead period was those first 10-12 days of May, so if you had a vacation/tour outside of that there's a good chance there was at least something to chase.

I’ll write up my own Epilogue when I get a chance, but my recollection is that the inactive period was longer than that. With the exception of the 5/16-5/19 sequence, and a couple days on Memorial Day weekend, the whole month of May was pretty much a disappointment and June salvaged the season.

The 5/16-5/19 stretch had its own issues: 5/16 was outside of traditional Plains chaser territory; 5/17 featured the Paul’s Valley tornado but disappointed in the NW OK target; 5/19 featured a messy, unchaseable convective mode. 5/18 was Arnett day but I would argue still somewhat disappointing relative to the overall synoptic setup, especially if, like me, one targeted southwest KS, where the storm of the day occurred only after dark. I see this day as somewhat similar to 5/25/24, which did perform well in one region (in TX just south of the Red River) while disappointing in the primary target area (southwest OK). Maybe 5/18/25 was better because it featured both Arnett as well as the northern KS storms, but southern KS had the best overlap of instability and shear yet was ruined by the cloud cover that lingered until afternoon.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I’ll write up my own Epilogue when I get a chance, but my recollection is that the inactive period was longer than that. With the exception of the 5/16-5/19 sequence, and a couple days on Memorial Day weekend, the whole month of May was pretty much a disappointment and June salvaged the season.

The 5/16-5/19 stretch had its own issues: 5/16 was outside of traditional Plains chaser territory; 5/17 featured the Paul’s Valley tornado but disappointed in the NW OK target; 5/19 featured a messy, unchaseable convective mode. 5/18 was Arnett day but I would argue still somewhat disappointing relative to the overall synoptic setup, especially if, like me, one targeted southwest KS, where the storm of the day occurred only after dark. I see this day as somewhat similar to 5/25/24, which did perform well in one region (in TX just south of the Red River) while disappointing in the primary target area (southwest OK). Maybe 5/18/25 was better because it featured both Arnett as well as the northern KS storms, but southern KS had the best overlap of instability and shear yet was ruined by the cloud cover that lingered until afternoon.

Yeah, despite my own success that day, 5/18 was one of the days I was thinking of in my little diatribe about synoptically evident, high-ceiling threats in the Plains in what should be peak season repeatedly underperforming their potential due to surprise failure modes over several years (possibly going on 8-10 now).

If not for that cloud cover (which was unexpected, either the second or third SPC outlook mentioned in the text that they expected strong heating to commence shortly in the moderate and adjacent enhanced risk areas), I think it could have been one of the most memorable Plains tornado outbreaks in quite some time. The fact that southern Kansas still produced tornadoes in spite of it (not only the nocturnal cyclic beast, but an earlier storm produced a couple of fog-shrouded, but strong tornadoes in the Kinsley-Garfield area) IMO speaks to that.

"If not for (x)..." could also be said about each of 4/27, 5/6 and 5/25 last year, as well as 5/26/21 (lingering capping, subsidence or whatever the hell that was along the dryline in Kansas), 5/20/19, 5/18/17, and I'm probably missing a few others.

 

[JamesCaruso]

southern Kansas still produced tornadoes in spite of it (not only the nocturnal cyclic beast, but an earlier storm produced a couple of fog-shrouded, but strong tornadoes in the Kinsley-Garfield area)

I forgot about that one… Maybe I should have stuck to my southern KS target (which was closer to Coldwater, but would clearly have been in range). I had been hanging out in Buffalo OK at the time, having adjusted to current conditions and waiting for something to go up just over the border to the north. I left Buffalo for the Arnett storm too late to get the tornado there, and too early to get the action in Kinsley. Once I was on the has-been Arnett storm with its shriveled LP tower, I was no longer even paying attention to KS, until I noticed the Greensburg beast cranking after dark, at which point I startled my chase partner by banging on the steering wheel, yelling profanities to nobody in particular…

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I forgot about that one… Maybe I should have stuck to my southern KS target (which was closer to Coldwater, but would clearly have been in range). I had been hanging out in Buffalo OK at the time, having adjusted to current conditions and waiting for something to go up just over the border to the north. I left Buffalo for the Arnett storm too late to get the tornado there, and too early to get the action in Kinsley. Once I was on the has-been Arnett storm with its shriveled LP tower, I was no longer even paying attention to KS, until I noticed the Greensburg beast cranking after dark, at which point I startled my chase partner by banging on the steering wheel, yelling profanities to nobody in particular…

After scratching my head in Pratt early in the afternoon, trying to will the cloud cover away and getting the sinking feeling I'd been lured on an 800-mile (one way) drive for another bust, I gritted my teeth and steeled myself for an unexpected two-plus hours of additional driving to western Oklahoma (per Google Maps I actually could have gotten to Arnett an hour faster than I did had I known to go straight there, but I went to Seiling, Gary England's hometown, first and then west on US-60/OK-51). However I'd also seen the other 0-3KM CAPE bullseye progged on mesoanalysis northeast of Dodge City, and that area was also on the western edge of the cloud shield. I'd taken some hard lumps in the past by impulsively straying too far from my original target area (most notably on the Pilger day in 2014, and on 5/26/21) so that was on my mind as well. I actually pulled over and turned around on 281 south of Pratt, heading back towards town and that northeast of Dodge City target, before spinning another uie and committing to Oklahoma. I must have looked like a panicked squirrel after darting out into the road.

Over time I'm coming to realize that there's almost always an emotional roller coaster involved even on supposedly high-end chase days, with once clear-cut targets becoming muddled and confusing, and learning to manage that is just part of the game.

 

[John Farley]

I won't re-hash the summary I posted earlier in this thread, but after 2 weeks I have finally finished writing up my chases the first week of June, getting me caught up with writeups on all of my chases this year. If you are interested, you can find all of these writeups linked from my 2025 page at:

https://www.johnefarley.com/svrwx2025.htm

 

[Dave C]

Overall, objectively, 2025 saved itself from an abysmal year and upgrades to an average one with several very photogenic storms and tornadoes, finally. It still seems to have been sparse over favored chase terrain, and strongly biased to Dixie Alley and the TX panhandle area, with only a few outlier storms being worth anything from a visual perspective in other areas.

My personal/subjective 2025 Chase Statistics:

1. Only 3 chases attempted. Lowest tries since I started 14 years ago.
2. 2.5/3 chases were subjectively failures. All storms chased had tornadic supercells, but none were that photogenic by my standard. Meanwhile surrounding days with poorer forecasts outperformed and were immensely photogenic. 2024 was almost as bad for me but yielded one great structure day in four chases.
3. 2025 Failure Quality: 97%. If you are going to fail, do it right! 2025 was formally my most frustrating year so far.

It is hard to conceive of a crappier outcome when I dedicated a full six weeks to possible chasing from Colorado, only to have nothing decent within 7-8 hours one way the entire time except the Akron day, which in my opinion was a vastly overrated storm unless you were up close taking large hail to get the view. None of the season setups looked like viable multiple day setups worth the resources to stay out. I don't even bother with Oklahoma anymore - too many people, too far, too annoying, so some of the setups are non starters.

The one day that looked great ahead of time via typical forecast metrics was Morton, TX. and that is one of the only days during May and half of June I had a life obligation by sheer bad luck. The only time I was actually out chasing (day after Morton) and thought staying for a second day looked great ( 2nd day produced NM structure) I had another bad luck obligation in the CO mountains and so had to head home. I am not a "never stop chasing" type and unwilling to spend infinite PTO and money on seeing storms and have not been that into it for many years. With my limited commitment, this was not a kind year to me. It actually doesn't even appeal to me anymore to think of chasing everything, there is lots else to do in life than always be driving. If that is what it will take, I may just retire. Otherwise, I will continue to chase a few good looking (relatively) setups each year and hope for better luck than the last two years.

I hang my hopes of seeing any photogenic storms this year on Monsoon season at this point, but not optimistic about it right now. Synoptic weather patters have been garbage for over 6 months, with starved moisture the more west and south you get. The dry pattern has made nature/storm/landscape photography in the cloud free west and southwest quite boring for over 6 months.

 

[Dan Robinson]

A big part of season quality is what type of chaser you are. If you're out there all season or had a fixed 2-week chase vacation during any part of June, you probably had an above-average to excellent 2025. Opportunistic "pattern chaser" (my category) results will vary depending on how you executed the days during those times. The synoptically-evident pattern days during the traditional season (late April through early June) this year were really not that great unless you were on the one or two storms that produced the most photogenic results. The biggest events in June were either subtle-forcing/mesoscale days or long-past traditional chase season windows (which ends around mid-June for most) and in far northern areas.

A strong June like this one is the exception rather than the rule. The last comparable years I can think of with big late-June action were 2010 and 2003. If climatology is any indication, it may be another 10-15 years before the next one. A common reaction to a season like this is to shift future plans to chasing into late June and/or farther north, foregoing traditional peak season and southern/central Plains action. Climo still heavily favors the central/southern Plains during that traditional April to early June window (that's the reason it's traditional, after all). Shifting one's chase trip timing based on a year like this will usually result in missing the next series of Dodge Citys and Benningtons once the pendulum swings back.