State of the Chase Season 2024

[Jason N]

I refuse to worry about the chiclet chart. It shows today 4/30 and tomorrow 5/1 in the deepest blue. Yet there are TOR reports today and a 5% Day 2 convective outlook for tomorrow. Even Friday 4/26 and Saturday 4/27 - they hit the “X” threshold, but were still in the blue color family.

yeah, I am thinking that might be because its CFS I think? might as well be GFS with as much flip flopping as it seems to do, so I am inclined to agree with you.

 

[Jason N]

I just looked at the preliminary TOR count reports for 30APR and man, to take an anchorman phrase, "that escalated quickly" lol.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The models for next week derailed into a dynamite factory!

Monday looks like it will materialize too far east for me and will be followed by the doldrums.

The next logical ****possibility**** appears to be around the 9th+. I'll reset my launch date accordingly. The good news is that the NCEP Ensembles continue show some form of positive flow for the extended.

 

[Joey Prom]

I was planning to go out either late next week, or the week after, but it looks like I will be needing to reset my plans for a week. Good thing I fly out last weekend. Had a career day on Friday the 26th, capturing 11 tornados.

 

[Jeff House]

Monday still looks like it could be a day, but details are getting murky. At the surface and occlusion would cut off the best boundary intersection from the best kinematics aloft. Then a tear drop trough doesn't help matters. If those can resolve, Monday could still go off.

Of greater interest to me is a possible Midwest and Mid-South sequence Tuesday through Thursday. I'm not sure why the SPC mentions Louisiana! Looks more like the total eclipse path AR/MO/IL/IN etc. Upper jets punch through that region. LLJs respond into that region. Surface features are that region.

It's a lot closer to me than the Plains. Should be fewer data distracted solo new chasers east of the Mississippi River. What we give up on terrain we more than gain on driver safety.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Still looking dismal after early next week according to the 12z 5-2-24 GFS and all the long range models. RH will be lacking no doubt throughout the Plains. Could flip-flop of course.

 

[Jason N]

I got the distinct feeling looking at the runs today, that the 3rd/4th week of may might be like last year where your chase stays in west TX to Clovis. CFS is so vastly different than GFS at 384, almost makes going forward pointless, especially since CFS is significantly different from run to run itself from 384 to 500. I don't usually go past that, no point in it.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I got the distinct feeling looking at the runs today, that the 3rd/4th week of may might be like last year where your chase stays in west TX to Clovis. CFS is so vastly different than GFS at 384, almost makes going forward pointless, especially since CFS is significantly different from run to run itself from 384 to 500. I don't usually go past that, no point in it.

Yes, the Clovis triangle where magic and fun can be had by all!

I'm still counting on the NCEP Ensembles, which still show favorable SW flow past the 16th. The RH is more of a seasonal thing, so my deployment plans are based 75% on the RH return. I've learned over the years, any kind of SW flow with 55+ dp's and you go there.

I did some very quick research last week about May / June tornadoes in E. NM and discovered the majority occur after May 13th.

 

[John Farley]

If SPC is even close, the next week would be an ideal time for a chase vacation. For anyone lucky enough to have been in the Abilene, TX area yesterday, you would not have to move much for today and tomorrow. Then an easy drive north Sunday for Monday's setup, which it is increasingly looking like you could follow east for a couple more days. I am not in a position to chase in this time frame, but for anyone who is, especially if you are already in west-central TX, this is looking like a pretty active period.

 

[JamesCaruso]

^ Making it that much more likely it shuts down the following week when I get out there.

May 13 is the earliest I am able to get out there in many, many years - usually it’s not until May 20 or later - yet oddly and sadly it’s still not early enough. What an awful hobby.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Next week looks good for chasing if you don't mind the real estate after Monday, which appears to be a big day. After Monday, the pursuit moves too far east for me, into the Mekong Delta Regions where some chasers are still missing after 20 years.

Towards the end of the week, RH recovery will determine the next chase period.

 

[AndrewHamm]

Yes hopefully we get moisture return after Saturday/ Sunday next week. Kansas looks big time on Monday. Around Paris, Texas could be a target for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, albeit maybe not quite the risk as the MS Valley, but much better terrain for chasing. Then hopefully a RH return by Monday or Tuesday (13th or 14th) although models don't really show that

 

[Jeff House]

I see Illinois and Indiana days next week. Tuesday and Wednesday could be gems at about half the distance to the Plains for me.
Chaser partner and I are both jammed up Sunday, totally separate personal calendar items, so we can't travel for Monday. We are free the rest of the week though. Convenient.

Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday are all dependent on convection the prior night into morning. Hopefully it doesn't get rain-cooled into the Ohio River Valley which is dreadful terrain. SPC also gets the Mid-South which is threading the needle to stay in the Delta. Can we have a classic Midwest sequence instead? Keep the boundaries north of I-64.

 

[John Farley]

There is quite a bit of good chase terrain in Illinois, Indiana, and much of eastern Arkansas. Not everywhere, but the terrain is not good everywhere in OK, KS, or any other state. Storms farther east do tend to be somewhat lower-based and the skies sometimes hazy, but there are still good chases to be had in parts of IL, IN, and AR. So if you do not mind travelling to follow the setups each day, there could well be possibilities.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Although the next few days continue to look solid for early May, as advertised, global ensembles currently suggest a more substantial mid-month break than one would ideally like to see. The ECMWF EPS shows deep eastern troughing dominating the pattern after Monday through the end of its cycle around 5/19, while the GEFS and CMCE at least show some zonal to WSW flow nudging into the Plains starting around 5/15, and less pronounced troughing on the eastern seaboard.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest we could be headed toward periods in the late season with a similar pattern to last year: a tendency for some eastern U.S. troughing, but shortwaves continue to sneak into the Plains. Last year from late May into June, that led to a ton of mesoscale setups with modest flow, and many of them yielded good results. As always, ET and wet soil conditions are helpful in these subtler setups, so areas that have received lots of storms the past several weeks may have an edge in such a regime. But, needless to say, even the large-scale pattern could still turn out quite different than any current NWP guidance depicts at the 2+ week range.