State of the Chase Season 2025

[Hannah.Taylor]

View attachment 27273
Reports, though preliminary, still remain the best year-to-date over the last 14 years...since 2011. I admit the chase aspect of some of the events, whether at night or in the Southeast, may not have been optimal, nor has some people's schedules and commitments cooperated. But, despite early- or mid-May slow-downs, my long-standing recommendation is to always chase on Memorial Day weekend or make some great plans.

I have the 22-26th off. I will be out chasing ANYTHING and EVERYTHING I can.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The scary thing about having to depend on the last two weeks in May is the possibility that period could also go bust. I'm rearranging all of my schedules to make sure I can chase during the first 10 days in June just in case. I know a lot of people cannot do that, and I feel their pain. Chasing is a fickle mistress.

It's hard to believe we are already talking about NW flow events and Denver cyclones, but those are the back-up plans. The NCEP models are consistent with no-go set-ups until around May 11th. when they start to go haywire with a **suggestion** of SW flow by the 15th+. This could be one of my latest deployment dates ever.

If the latest CFS verifies, things will go nuts after May 13th. with significant events in June. We will see!

This is of course, sorcery-level guessing.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Exactly why I am trying not to look… I can’t get out there until the night of the 12th anyway. Hard to believe we won’t start seeing something by the 13th, as we will have had almost nothing for two weeks by then. I only have a week, and then I’ll miss the 21-23 when I have to fly back home for my son’s graduation, So mark those three days for the setup of the year, maybe of the decade. Then I’ll be back out from May 24 through the first week of June. I’m pretty bullish on having enough time in total for some good chase days. But we all know how fast that window can close… And I’m truly afraid I’m going to suffer the cruel irony of getting screwed during that three days I can’t be out there.

I don’t need a perfect pattern to draw me out there on the 13th, but since it’s only a week I do need enough to make it worth the back-and-forth, if only to make sure I don’t burn too much PTO on crap setups and unproductive travel time. I’m really not interested in NW flow events, unless I’m near the end of my season and that’s all there is. But I’m not going to use up PTO for it if that’s all there is starting the 13th.

 

[Jeff House]

Easy to get negative when the forecast is nebulous, but I really don't see any problems after the Omega block passes. Should get going again at least seasonable around May 15 give or take.

Note the Omega block is not a Texas based death ridge, which would shut down the central and southern Plains. Quite the contrary with AN heights North the Southern High Plains could be active.

Weeklies are in disagreement for the back half of May. CFS looks good both Dashboard and some 500 mb flow. GEFS weekly and ECMWF weekly are less bullish. GEFS is pretty bearish but it's the least reliable. More skillful ECMWF is neutral not really bullish or bearish.

Bottom line: I honestly don't see anything wrong with the May 15-31 time period. Nothing stands out, but nothing cries bust either.

 

[Paul Bird]

Can’t ask for much more than this heading towards peak season