State of the Chase Season 2025

[JamesCaruso]

@Todd Lemery Sorry to hear. As for whether to risk the doghouse by chasing this weekend, I think it’s time to break out my Chasing vs Family Event Matrix. I don’t think anything on Fri/Sat will trigger the PDS (Particularly *Difficult* Situation) box!

SHOULD I CHASE? DECISION MATRIX (copyright Jim Caruso )

 

[William Monfredo]

...Northern Plains tornadoes in late June might as well be in Northern Russia...

Definitely have to set boundaries and criteria.
Many of you have seen more storms in more places than me of course, but a couple of years ago...
a friend wanted to see North Dakota & storms, so we went up to the northwestern counties just south of Saskatchewan.
Afterwards, I had the odd realization that I'd seen tornadoes in States from one international border to the other.
But generally, without some restrictions, you can go broke or crazy; I don't know which one first!

 

[William Monfredo]

The current La Niña favors a greater frequency of EF2 through EF-5 storms for the mid-South centered around Tennessee...

Looking back, that February idea held up decently as I glanced at the 5 locations experiencing EF-4 damages:
* Two in Arkansas, March 14
* One in Mississippi, March 15
* One in Illinois, May 16
* One in Kentucky, May 16
How will the tornadoes play out to the east as we head into the hurricane season?

 

[William Monfredo]

Something I find visually intriguing considering the seven tornado reports and many videos from yesterday's storms in Wisconsin...
Ever notice how tornadoes over treetops create fascinating patterns of pristine-looking condensation...
...that's often very different than say from what occurs with storms over dirt near Lubbock?
I've often thought the frequency of weak tornadoes might go underreported in forested places with less loose dirt, like Pennsylvania.

 

[Lucas Munzlinger]

Haven't been on here for a bit, though May 16, 2025, will go down as one of my favorite chase days ever!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Looks like we have a nice "second season" type chase day currently ongoing with a southward-moving supercell south of Dodge City, in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Anyone on it is either locally-based or one of the "never stop chasing" crowd, as the rest of us are not about to commit 2-3 days of PTO and ~14 hours of driving each way (at minimum) to a 2% in September.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm having a lot more fun concentrating on non-tornado subjects this year. Shot two wedges in May, no big deal, so did 1.5 trillion other chasers and shots were better than mine. So many tornadoes being filmed, its become rather over-rated in addition to over-crowded. Going to concentrate more on global shutter lightning, time-lapse, the monsoon, California wildfires and hurricane season (if it arrives).

 

[Brett Roberts]

To everyone's shock, the Dakotas ripped off yet another tornado bonanza today (2025-09-14) on an extremely non-traditional low-LCL, high-SRH setup that looked more like something you'd see in the Midwest.. or even during the extratropical transition after a hurricane landfall. Multiple tornadic storms spanning from late morning to sunset, several producing multiple NNW-moving hogs. It doesn't appear any were especially photogenic, although a few of the grungy wedges were visible from several miles away and had prominent debris. Regardless, the fact that this 2025 hotspot since June continues to hotspot -- even after multiple lulls and total pattern resets -- is crazy.

On a different note, I nabbed the brief and unremarkable tornado on the OK/KS border NNW of Woodward on 2025-09-08 that Andy mentioned above. The foreground was a complete coincidence -- just happened to be there north of the dirt road I was cruising down at the time, which I find amusing.