State of the Chase Season 2022

[Andrew Butler]

I'm a bit shocked at the lack of talk about the northern plains in here. As much as I like how much less crowded the roads are up here compared to the central and southern plains, I feel like I need to mention that the northern plains has great terrain and offers some great storms (despite the busts up here the last couple of weeks). This weekend looks like it'll have some decent chances up here. For anyone on a chase vacation, it is probably worth the time to venture north for what could be a multi day stretch.

Hush. Just keep it our secret.

Saturday and Sunday (I'm going off the euro, which SPC seems to be hugging pretty tightly) look very "MCSey", maybe even a Sunday derecho a la a couple weeks ago riding up out of Nebraska through South Dakota and MN. Monday has my full attention. Very do-able 750mb temps and the Euro pops off both the cold front/dryline and the warm front up here.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm a bit shocked at the lack of talk about the northern plains in here. As much as I like how much less crowded the roads are up here compared to the central and southern plains, I feel like I need to mention that the northern plains has great terrain and offers some great storms (despite the busts up here the last couple of weeks). This weekend looks like it'll have some decent chances up here. For anyone on a chase vacation, it is probably worth the time to venture north for what could be a multi day stretch.

That's all perfectly reasonable, but there's no point in chasing over terrain that has nothing to chase. The northern Plains season happens later on in the year, and we're not quite there just yet (June is right around the corner, though).

I'm not seeing a ton of instances of the ingredients coming together in a great way over the Dakotas/W MN/E WY/E MT on the latest GFS forecast. But that will likely change as we get into June.

The encouraging thing I see on the GFS is that it is still tossing out massive troughs in the western CONUS out past 300 hours, rather than going dead or developing a death ridge.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

That's all perfectly reasonable, but there's no point in chasing over terrain that has nothing to chase. The northern Plains season happens later on in the year, and we're not quite there just yet (June is right around the corner, though).

I'm not seeing a ton of instances of the ingredients coming together in a great way over the Dakotas/W MN/E WY/E MT on the latest GFS forecast. But that will likely change as we get into June.

The encouraging thing I see on the GFS is that it is still tossing out massive troughs in the western CONUS out past 300 hours, rather than going dead or developing a death ridge.

Ah yes, the "blind squirrel and the acorn" parable. Eventually, it'll be right.

Yesterday was my fifth local/regional chase through May 25th, a personal record although with little to show for any of them. It was probably the most productive/enjoyable of the lot although it was an almost exact repeat of my April 30th chase where I drove in a big loop targeting storms developing east of I-39 only for them to crap out and/or move into the Chicago suburbs, reoriented towards new storms further west that looked somewhat interesting but didn't seem in a big hurry to do anything and I didn't really expect it to given mediocre parameters (slight or marginal risk) so I left it and started for home, only for it to go tornadic in the IL/WI border area once it was just out my reach.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

I'm a bit shocked at the lack of talk about the northern plains in here. As much as I like how much less crowded the roads are up here compared to the central and southern plains, I feel like I need to mention that the northern plains has great terrain and offers some great storms (despite the busts up here the last couple of weeks). This weekend looks like it'll have some decent chances up here. For anyone on a chase vacation, it is probably worth the time to venture north for what could be a multi day stretch.

That's because the northern plains have been utter trash for chasing for the better part of a decade. Haven't seemed to have a decent setup verify since about 2014.

 

[Dean Baron]

That's because the northern plains have been utter trash for chasing for the better part of a decade. Haven't seemed to have a decent setup verify since about 2014.

That may be true but with the D3/4/5 outlooks from the SPC I would have thought there would be some more excitement than there is considering those are the only opportunities coming up. A D4 enhanced risk in KS would probably spark some excitement. The same risk up here doesn't seem to get much attention.

Back on topic. NAM has some big parameters for Sunday in the northern plains. Very warm H7 temps in the 12-14c range will likely limit the day but there is some potential for CI, particularly in western MN or the eastern Dakotas IMO.

Monday has potential too but how much potential depends on which model you want to believe. 0z GFS looked solid, but has trended crappier the last couple of runs. Euro is more bullish. Either way I don't get too excited or bummed until we get in range of the medium range models which won't be until tomorrow.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

That may be true but with the D3/4/5 outlooks from the SPC I would have thought there would be some more excitement than there is considering those are the only opportunities coming up. A D4 enhanced risk in KS would probably spark some excitement. The same risk up here doesn't seem to get much attention.

Back on topic. NAM has some big parameters for Sunday in the northern plains. Very warm H7 temps in the 12-14c range will likely limit the day but there is some potential for CI, particularly in western MN or the eastern Dakotas IMO.

Monday has potential too but how much potential depends on which model you want to believe. 0z GFS looked solid, but has trended crappier the last couple of runs. Euro is more bullish. Either way I don't get too excited or bummed until we get in range of the medium range models which won't be until tomorrow.

I mean...it nice that there's some potential, gives the chasecationers something to do, but there are enough questions about whether this event will actually yield quality tornadic supercells that most people are holding off on getting excited. Case in point, the EHI map at FH84 on today's 12Z NAM looks gorgeous, but all the soundings are ironclad capped.

 

[Andrew Butler]

That's all perfectly reasonable, but there's no point in chasing over terrain that has nothing to chase. The northern Plains season happens later on in the year, and we're not quite there just yet (June is right around the corner, though).

I'm not seeing a ton of instances of the ingredients coming together in a great way over the Dakotas/W MN/E WY/E MT on the latest GFS forecast. But that will likely change as we get into June.

The encouraging thing I see on the GFS is that it is still tossing out massive troughs in the western CONUS out past 300 hours, rather than going dead or developing a death ridge.

Zero signs of death ridge when the past several years we were into it and the jet was well into Canada. CFS june precip maps don't look terrible either. What CFS is doing with region 3.4 is a little bit exciting too. I should know better but it still is intriguing especially since it nailed the early spring failure to make it out of la Nina and is now forecasting a rapid warming-too little too late? Maybe.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Andy is correct. So far this year the northern plains have had two different longer-wave troughs eject over the course of multiple days and it hasn't yielded a single notable tornado, or even supercell. Virtually everything this time of year through August is an MCS, if anything. Count me in the camp of 'I'll believe it when I see it'.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Look at those CAPE, SRH and LI numbers...then look at that vertical temperature profile and CINH number (sob).

Huge area of 3KM EHI >7 on that run, from southern KS to upper Michigan, and it's ALL like that.

Unless something changes, 2022 is gonna go down as the year of "close, but no cigar" in the atmospheric violence department. At least I'm listening to thunder right now...

An aside, but what does it signify when SHARPpy doesn't give you a critical angle value on the hodograph, as in this sounding? The ones I'm taking over Wisconsin for this run/FH are the same way.

 

[ScottCurry]

Looks like we weren't the only ones who decided to visit the Twister Museum while waiting for storms to start this weekend.

 

[Matt Hunt]

I'm a bit shocked at the lack of talk about the northern plains in here. As much as I like how much less crowded the roads are up here compared to the central and southern plains, I feel like I need to mention that the northern plains has great terrain and offers some great storms (despite the busts up here the last couple of weeks). This weekend looks like it'll have some decent chances up here. For anyone on a chase vacation, it is probably worth the time to venture north for what could be a multi day stretch.

I'm excited, lol. I've never chased the northern plains, so looking forward to it. And yeah, I'm not expecting much the next 2 days, but Sunday looks better, and beyond that I haven't looked as much, as I've been more focused on the short-term. But just having at least 4 straight days is a plus. I feel like the prettiest storms I've ever seen pictures of have been in the northern plains. And I'm completely fine if most chasers decide to sit it out!

 

[Andrew Butler]

0z GFS last night was absolutely on fire for the next 2 weeks. Nothing but troughs. And not just for the northern plains. 06z isn't much different. When it actually all busts then I will eat crow. Until then it's just exciting to see an active pattern headed into June. For a large part of the plains.

 

[Bobby Little]

I really want to head out to the Dakotas for the next targets but after my Southern Plains chase a few weeks ago (3k mi driving ) , I am not sure if i want to drive 12+hrs and fight Memorial Day traffic. I may just sit out the weekend and target/wish/hope early June for Northern Plains serves up. But...if someone here can guarantee me a good solid week...i am gone....Anyone

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

This year I decided to take two chasing vacations. The first one was in early May which produced the beautiful Crowell, TX tornado, but not much else. The second one is coming up in the second week of June. And I have to say I’m feeling pretty optimistic. As someone else pointed out, the GFS has an amazing pattern all the way till the end of its run. Its ensembles agree with it, as well as the Euro ensemble suite. The CFS has also been very consistent in showing low height anomalies in the west for weeks. There’s still time for things to go wrong, but as it stands now, I’m feeling pretty good about 2 weeks from now.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

If you have a chasecation planned in the next two weeks, you should be getting pretty excited. Central and Northern Plains into the midwest look active along with a few high plains upslope setups possible. Also, don't count out the southern plains for another chase op or two. I think overall, the pattern should promote some "mesoscale maddness" with a day or two possibly offering more of a regional tornado threat.