State of the Chase Season 2022

[Brett Nickeson]

View attachment 22880

View attachment 22881


That's it. That's the post.

 

[Andrew Butler]

LOL. ^That's great.

Everyone was jumping out of windows and off bridges last few years because of death ridge. I mean at least the jet is still not, nor will be anywhere near Canada for the foreseeable future. This counts for something, right?


Right???

 

[Jesse Risley]

Since it's early June, it's important to keep in mind that you can still have over performing setups, especially across the Northern Plains, northwest flow events across the Midwest, and terrain-induced supercells east of the front range all the way up into Montana. It's important to monitor the location of embedded mid-level perturbations, the extent and placement of moisture, and associated lifting mechanisms at the surface but I've had some of my best chases within otherwise mediocre mid and upper-level patters.

So while we may not be getting massive troughs that yield synoptically evident severe weather outbreaks, there may still be plenty of opportunities in June for those able to capitalize on severe weather mechanisms coalescing across climatiologically favorable areas. I suspect we still have several days in June where Colorado and perhaps Southern Wyoming will reward, and hardly a year goes by without a spectacular supercell or three across Eastern Montana into the Western Dakotas. Canada is also back open for business this year for those with passports.

June typically rewards but it sometimes takes patience and picking the right setups.

 

[Randy Jennings]

Another slow May in the books.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532528095168581634

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The above pretty much confirms my perception of this past month...fairly active for storms in general, but frustratingly slow for tornadoes (especially classic supercellular, photogenic ones although those will always be a relatively small subset). Don't regret saving the gas money and sitting out this past Monday and Tuesday when what had looked like a potentially decent or even spectacular (if Monday had actually lived up to the early comparisons to 6/17/2010) 2-day regional setup went up in smoke (apart from the nocturnal tornado in IL, needed that to happen around 20-22Z Tuesday afternoon as the initial HRRR runs to come in range had depicted).

As an aside, anyone else not getting the little bell alerts for watched threads anymore? I only saw the posts after Monday in here because I went and clicked into the subforum.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Today is June 4, so one month has passed since the last “big” tornado day near Vernon TX on 5/4, and the only photogenic tornado I know of since that one was Morton TX (which I don’t think anyone could have predicted, so still didn’t have the makings of a great chase day…) Put another way, just two “quality” tornados in the month of May. Even from a forecast perspective, only two “big” days - 5/4 and 5/30 - I don’t consider Morton a “big” day from a forecast perspective, and as we all know 5/30 was a big disappointment…

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Ok, I got the little bell alert for @JamesCaruso 's post this morning, first one I'd gotten for this thread since Monday.

 

[Matt Hunt]

Another slow May in the books.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532528095168581634

So that means we're due next year, right? RIGHT?!

 

[JamesCaruso]

It’s always hard to get back from a chase vacation and keep looking at Plains weather without feeling some frustration or regret about missing events… I was out from 5/21-6/3 (flew back on 6/4) and before I left for the Plains I spent a few days considering a one-week shift to 5/28-6/10. My first full week 5/21-5/28 included only two chase days, but if I had instead delayed the trip and still been out there this week, I would have already had four going back to Saturday (of course, the week of 5/29-6/3 I would have been out there on either schedule). Not sure how “quality” any of these tornadic storms over the past four days have been, but it certainly seems like it has been a decent stretch considering the overall pattern… Of course, if I had shifted the trip, I would have missed Morton, but my only actual sighting of that tornado was from a distance, and the rest of the time when I was closer there was no visibility due to rain and dust. Morton was still an exciting storm with great structure. Not sure how some of this week’s storms might have measured up to it though…

 

[Jeff Duda]

So that means we're due next year, right? RIGHT?!

 

[Jeff Duda]

I wanted to chase yesterday across E CO, and it looks like I would have at least had a few supercells to choose from, but the tornado threat was nil (all reports except for the Lusk, WY one were landspouts, and I don't chase for landspouts), and given the $4.70/gal. gas in Colorado right now, I just didn't feel sufficiently motivated to get out and chase. It's gonna take a setup a bit more substantial for tornadoes to get me out with those kinds of prices.

 

[Sam Soud]

It’s always hard to get back from a chase vacation and keep looking at Plains weather without feeling some frustration or regret about missing events… I was out from 5/21-6/3 (flew back on 6/4) and before I left for the Plains I spent a few days considering a one-week shift to 5/28-6/10. My first full week 5/21-5/28 included only two chase days, but if I had instead delayed the trip and still been out there this week, I would have already had four going back to Saturday (of course, the week of 5/29-6/3 I would have been out there on either schedule). Not sure how “quality” any of these tornadic storms over the past four days have been, but it certainly seems like it has been a decent stretch considering the overall pattern… Of course, if I had shifted the trip, I would have missed Morton, but my only actual sighting of that tornado was from a distance, and the rest of the time when I was closer there was no visibility due to rain and dust. Morton was still an exciting storm with great structure. Not sure how some of this week’s storms might have measured up to it though…

I chased Morton myself, and it was one of those storms where you had to be close. After the strong tornado, we backed off and got thrown into dust and chaser convergence. We went back in for another look, once we got within about 3 miles the visibility was fine. The very slow storm motion allowed us to get close fairly safely.

The big problem we had on that storm was data. Massive chaser convergence caused our data to go out, and we were essentially forced to chase on visual cues only.