State of the Chase Season 2024

[Warren Faidley]

Long rage models are in generally good agreement in keeping western sectors precipitation free for the rest of the month. As previously discussed, this could / will effect dryline placement and create possible visibility issues further east and NE due to dust. Some hits of a change in early May, but I would not count on it ATM.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I try not to look at long-range models; since my chase trips are largely fixed in time, I would only be torturing myself about missing stuff before I can get out there, or seeing unfavorable indicators for when I can. But yesterday I just happened upon a Tornado Titans video that was bullish on mean southwest flow from late next week into early May. It further noted that it might turn less favorable in mid-May - you know, exactly when my chase trip begins…

Although they did suggest southwest flow would return after a brief lull in mid-May, and that the month looked pretty good overall, perhaps the best since 2018 or 2019.

I haven’t corroborated this with any of my own analysis; for the reasons noted above, I was sorry I even saw this! And of course we all know the long-range outlooks are of dubious value anyway. But sharing this FWIW, and curious as to others’ perspectives.

 

[Jeff House]

James I don't see anything too concerning on the long-range models or weeklies. Not that they are very valuable past week 3, but it's nice when they don't show a ridge train wreck. They don't.

Before Mother's Day the southwest flow looks to visit off and on. Mother's Day seems like a good dividing day since it's a PDS family day.

After that going into mid-May there's nothing wrong with the pattern, no big Plains ridge or East trough. One could infer split flow, which is just par for the El Nino course. Nino is fading but it'll take a bit. Plus the -TNI also contributes to slop. Still that would allow modest to moderate flow, systems, and chances.

CFS and ECMWF weekly products agree with the above. GEFS weekly, which I don't trust farther than I can throw the rack of servers, is ridgy. Don't worry it's wrong!

State of the Chase Season looks average to me and slightly above average starting this weekend through Mother's Day. Keep in mind Average in late May is still plenty of action.

 

[Derek Weston]

Haven't spent a ton of time on the long range models... but GFS certainly is thinking the next two weeks are going to be really active. Although the moisture is a bit of concern.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Models are still hinting of favorable westward intrusions of decent RH during the first week of May onward. This, along with favorable upper air configurations via NCEP models, make me increasingly positive about the first week in May+. In other words, the overall outlook would appear to be better than the last few years.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Models are still hinting of favorable westward intrusions of decent RH during the first week of May onward. This, along with favorable upper air configurations via NCEP models, make me increasingly positive about the first week in May+. In other words, the overall outlook would appear to be better than the last few years.

Just hope the second half of May will also be good. I guess to @Jeff House ‘s point above, even just an average second half (peak climatology) should mean at least as much activity as an above-average late April / early May. I just start to get very concerned when I see a lot of early activity. It always makes me paranoid that it means an early end to the season. Although, it always stuck with me what @Jeff Duda noted a few years ago, the concept that the atmosphere can indeed “use up” its troughs for the season; there’s only so many times it can reload. Jeff maybe you can weigh in on that again, it’s been awhile, I’m sure I’m missing a ton of technical nuance, and many of our newer members could benefit from your insights there!

Of course, if the Plains were dead right now, we’d all be worrying about what *that* meant for the rest of the season…. So that’s the optimistic view, that these are early signs of a better season this year. And even IF the atmosphere is spent on the bigger troughs and outbreaks early on, the more subtle mesoscale setups can make for some of the best chase days later in the season anyway.

 

[Jason N]

Models are still hinting of favorable westward intrusions of decent RH during the first week of May onward. This, along with favorable upper air configurations via NCEP models, make me increasingly positive about the first week in May+. In other words, the overall outlook would appear to be better than the last few years.

I think your thoughts on visibility will be put to the test somewhat this week, lol

 

[Jeff Duda]

Although, it always stuck with me what @Jeff Duda noted a few years ago, the concept that the atmosphere can indeed “use up” its troughs for the season; there’s only so many times it can reload. Jeff maybe you can weigh in on that again, it’s been awhile, I’m sure I’m missing a ton of technical nuance, and many of our newer members could benefit from your insights there!

Unfortunately, I have nothing new to add to this. This is simply a semi-empirical observation that may not have any roots in science. It may or may not be true. As far as I know, there's no physical law that prevents a certain rate of trough formations and passages over a given location on Earth.

My own sense so far is that we haven't seen a ton of big springtime troughs roll through the central US. No big Dixie Alley outbreaks. This would tend to suggest that the Plains may be "due" for a more active year. But take that possibly freezing-cold take with a few atoms of NaCl.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just hope the second half of May will also be good. I guess to @Jeff House ‘s point above, even just an average second half (peak climatology) should mean at least as much activity as an above-average late April / early May. I just start to get very concerned when I see a lot of early activity. It always makes me paranoid that it means an early end to the season. Although, it always stuck with me what @Jeff Duda noted a few years ago, the concept that the atmosphere can indeed “use up” its troughs for the season; there’s only so many times it can reload. Jeff maybe you can weigh in on that again, it’s been awhile, I’m sure I’m missing a ton of technical nuance, and many of our newer members could benefit from your insights there!

Of course, if the Plains were dead right now, we’d all be worrying about what *that* meant for the rest of the season…. So that’s the optimistic view, that these are early signs of a better season this year. And even IF the atmosphere is spent on the bigger troughs and outbreaks early on, the more subtle mesoscale setups can make for some of the best chase days later in the season anyway.

I'm also hoping for a solid second half of May as well James, given I fly out May 20th. I see nothing to be concerned about at this stage, all medium-long range modelling suggests troughiness out west to some extent. All you need during the second half of May really is broad SW-W'ly flow to kick up the goods. Models however maybe beginning to hint at a slightly less active period/southerly tracking jet around 2nd week of May.

 

[JamesCaruso]

@Jeff House one of your earlier posts above had me feeling better about not heading out until mid-May until I saw your post over in the 4/25/24 Events thread!

“I'm afraid this could be 'the sequence' that seems to happen in April instead of May recent years. Thursday kicks off days through Sunday.”

 

[Andy Wehrle]

One of the things to like about the next several days is that there are plenty of legit targets each day to spread out chasers...no guarantee they will all verify of course, but there are several that look potentially good each tomorrow, Friday and Saturday.

 

[Jeff House]

Well @JamesCaruso I'm not as concerned now. Yes this weekend has another couple good days. However yesterday is like the 3rd inning of baseball - once through the order - and none of my player props have hits. Sports metaphors are sometimes all I have. Glad I didn't wager!

Looks like another trough swings through right around the 1st of May and might yield 2-3 days. Too early for details, just that another Plains trough is forecast. Right now it doesn't look too inspiring. Though with zonal flow (forecast) subtle setups can become apparent closer to time.

Then the middle of May could be that down week Quincy used to write about. Just as well with Mother's Day PDS family weekend.

Finally late May is nebulous on the weeklies. The one good news, no death ridge is forecast. State of the Chase season remains good.

 

[Warren Faidley]

If one trusts the models anymore, it would appear that a front dives down through the CP's and disrupts Gulf RH trough at least the first week in May. Some of this is logical given it's not an unusual occurrence this time of year behind departing systems. The question becomes how soon quality RH recovers northwards and the timing of the next trough, as Jeff noted above. Since I generally devote about 30 days to this adventure, any May delay will allow some time for CO chasing and a few West Texas sneak attacks. Hopefully, we will not all be sucked back into the Clovis Triangle of doom this season!

 

[Jason N]

Well, after today adlyons just may be reporting above average numbers !

 

[JamesCaruso]

Since I generally devote about 30 days to this adventure, any May delay will allow some time for CO chasing and a few West Texas sneak attacks. Hopefully, we will not all be sucked back into the Clovis Triangle of doom this season!

I’m devoting about the same amount of time this year. After 25 years, this is the first season I will be able to devote more than two weeks. It won’t be all vacation time. It’s basically taking advantage of being able to work remotely. Instead of taking two weeks off, which may or may not be fruitful, I’ll take off as needed. The way to think of it is, spreading 10 PTO days over a month instead of wagering them on a fixed period. And hopefully I’ll squeak out more chase days in total since I’ll have weekends and the possibility of working at least half the day before chasing in the afternoon/evening. This does mean blowing off some marginal days that I would have chased if I was only there for two weeks, because I can’t just take unlimited time off all month...

My end date in mid-June is pretty much set, so delaying my start (May 13) doesn’t help me. I would only delay if it looked like a complete death ridge. No reason sitting in some hotel by myself just waiting for conditions to improve.

Almost feels anti-climactic already, with the best event of the season (and for the next who knows how many years) most likely already behind us. But you can only chase one supercell at a time anyway, and it only takes one tornado encounter to make it a great day, or even a career day. No way it makes sense to lose hope when May hasn’t even started yet! But it sure is hard not to feel like I’m late to the party already…

 

[Jason N]

I am seeing this pattern with you when it comes to your chase season chat @JamesCaruso (Positive Realistic Negativity) hahaha

I’m devoting about the same amount of time this year. After 25 years, this is the first season I will be able to devote more than two weeks.

POSITIVE

My end date in mid-June is pretty much set, so delaying my start (May 13) doesn’t help me. I would only delay if it looked like a complete death ridge.

REALISITC

Almost feels anti-climactic already, with the best event of the season (and for the next who knows how many years) most likely already behind us.

NEGATIVITY

 

[AndrewHamm]

Any predictions for the next couple of weeks? I'm pretty unexperienced, but its looking to me like the start of May looks active followed by a short lull possibly starting around May 14? Around May 7 looks like a potential severe day by some models, but its still far out to decide that yet.