Chase Case 7

[Jason Boggs]

After the latest data, I'm still sitting in Clarendon. I have some cirrus overhead, but a good cu field has developed around my location.

 

[JHardy]

I'm freaking out trying to figure out where to go next. I am going to stay put until I see something on radar. I think I am in a good location so I will sit still and wait here in Lubbock Tx.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Odd min. on the meso data in W.Kansas....things should flood in once the very strong wave moves in. I will maintain my late afternoon position at Scott City KS with a close and weary eye on the bubbling DL west and a little deeper LL moisture to my east and southeast. Things should be popping in next hour or two...quite vigorously. First supercell echoes will mean racing to get in to position. Standing by....

 

[JF Massicotte]

(20Z) Will move further north to Dighton, KS.

Will take about 2 hours and should be there @ 22Z

 

[Jeff Duda]

SWS

*Chase time is approximately 2130Z*​

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL MEADE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 333 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TILFORD...OR ABOUT
8 MILES SOUTH OF STURGIS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
STURGIS BY 350 PM MDT...
BEAR BUTTE BY 405 PM MDT...
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 46...

 

[L.B. LaForce]

Good grief. I should have stayed in Amarillo. I'm gonna get out of Dodge and head to Darrouzet, TX (or however the heck you spell it).

No kidding...things look better in TX, but I think its too late now, so im gonna sit tight here in Minneola, KS and see what plays out.

oh yeah, what the dilio if we use GR3? what you got for us

 

[David Wolfson]

If the development near Scott City at 21Z becomes the target, I'll need to move a little bit south to catch it coming by. But for now I'm staying nere in Norton, KS.

 

[Jeff Duda]

22Z Update

22Z Update​

Satellite:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Mid-Mississippi valley

Surface graphics:
Theta-e and advection
Surface vorticity and 0-3 km CAPE

Wind profilers:
Lower Troposphere
Upper Troposphere

Radar: (regional)
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Central Mississippi valley

Ah! Luck smiles upon you...you managed to get an image from KDDC on GR2:
KDDC_2215Z

-------------------------------------------------

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS TX PANHANDLE E OF
DRY LINE. WITH AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WRN OK/TX BORDER...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEWD ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

---------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 354 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SHANNON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 31 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PINE RIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHWESTERN SHANNON COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

---------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
NORTHERN CROSBY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LORENZO...OR ABOUT 19 MILES EAST OF ABERNATHY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CONE AND
FLOYDADA. ALSO...THIS STORM WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY 62 SOUTH OF
FLOYDADA.

----------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
EASTERN HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AIKEN...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PLAINVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LOCKNEY.

-------------------------------------------

This is all happening starting around 22Z. GO!​

______________________________________________________________________________​

Ahhhh! But wait! Just a few minutes after 22Z...​

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SWISHER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
SOUTHERN BRISCOE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CLAYTONVILLE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CAPROCK CANYON
ST. PARK AND SILVERTON.

---------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 515 PM MDT

* AT 416 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SCENIC...OR ABOUT 38 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF RAPID CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SCENIC BY 440 PM MDT...
WALL AND WASTA BY 510 PM MDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 113...

---------------------------------------

Current wayfaring map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60773

 

[L.B. LaForce]

Sweet, some storms are firing to my NW. I'm gonna jet up towards Jetmore, KS, and wait for these storms to come to me.

 

[David Wolfson]

Ah, ok. At 22:15Z from the DDC radar I'm going to zero in on the developing cell which looks like it has the upper hand approaching Oakley. 23:00Z will find me at the intersection of KS23 and KS123 south of Dresden, KS.

[edit based on 22:45 radar: due to radar and visual en route, am continuing southwest on KS383 and in Selden, KS, as of 23:00Z]

 

[Brad Goddard]

im gonna run south out of Pampa down to I40 and try to get out in front of the tornado warned storm NE of plain view.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Ok, some nice storms to my S/SW. A tornado warning to my SW also. I'm now going S out of Clarendon to get a better view and let the storms mature a little more. Last swallow of Allsup's burrito and last chug of lemon/lime Gatorade. It's go time baby!!!

 

[Scott Hammel]

Okay, I just got home and have gone through all the updates and I am afraid my lack of commitment to the S in the TX panhandle and lack of faith in northern target has left me out of position at the moment. I'm still E of the dryline and I think my best bet is to head S from Kinsley down 183 to Coldwater, KS and wait.

 

[John Hudson]

Time to take a bit of a jog to the west. Heading to Protection, KS to hopefully be in the sweet spot just ahead of the dryline.

John Hudson
VE4 JTH

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm not much admiring my in-flight position, but maybe it's not too bad. Two cells just getting started down in the northern TX panhandle look to move northeast into the OK panhandle. I'm dropping down US 283 to US 64 and heading west toward Turpin, OK, roughly an hour's drive. That town is just my best guess based on storm motion; the actual target from here on will be determined by the radar and whatever the sky tells me.