David Wolfson
EF5
Browsing 20Z data at about 20:20Z here in Norton, KS. Sure wish I could see more detailed regional surface obs.... Based on what I see, no reason to move right now, on the Theta-e nose with decent shear.
Chase Case 7
- Thread starter Jeff Duda
- Start date
Jason Boggs
I'm sticking to my guns and staying put in Clarendon, TX
Sorry, but I couldn't find any surface obs for 20Z. That's why I gave other surface graphics. Surface obs will be available at 21Z.
Intermediate update
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F SPREAD NWD/NWWD ON STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ALSO...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THE DRYLINE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ALSO...A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING
NEWD TOWARD W/NW TX...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE E CENTRAL AND SE TX PANHANDLE.
GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS IN AREA PROFILERS AND VWP/S...AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL
FORECASTS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. BY EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH MORE OF A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
-------------------------------
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...FAR SWRN NEB AND EXTREME ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR MOST OF WRN KS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU INCREASING IN DEEPLY
MIXED/DRY AIR ACROSS ERN CO...WITH ADDITIONAL CU FARTHER E INTO WRN
KS. NW-SE ORIENTED CLOUD BILLOWS ALSO INDICATE CAPPING IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF NEB INTO KS. MODIFIED 18Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE CIN
REMAINS ALONG AND W OF THAT LONGITUDE WITH STEEP MID/UPPER LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. CONTINUED PRESSURE
FALLS W OF DRYLINE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKED WITH INCREASING
SFC DEWPOINTS. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
REGION WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES LIKELY. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY BE STRONG.
*Current chase time is approximately 2020Z*
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F SPREAD NWD/NWWD ON STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ALSO...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THE DRYLINE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ALSO...A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING
NEWD TOWARD W/NW TX...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE E CENTRAL AND SE TX PANHANDLE.
GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS IN AREA PROFILERS AND VWP/S...AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL
FORECASTS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. BY EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH MORE OF A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
-------------------------------
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...FAR SWRN NEB AND EXTREME ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR MOST OF WRN KS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU INCREASING IN DEEPLY
MIXED/DRY AIR ACROSS ERN CO...WITH ADDITIONAL CU FARTHER E INTO WRN
KS. NW-SE ORIENTED CLOUD BILLOWS ALSO INDICATE CAPPING IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF NEB INTO KS. MODIFIED 18Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE CIN
REMAINS ALONG AND W OF THAT LONGITUDE WITH STEEP MID/UPPER LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. CONTINUED PRESSURE
FALLS W OF DRYLINE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKED WITH INCREASING
SFC DEWPOINTS. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
REGION WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES LIKELY. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY BE STRONG.
Brian Stertz
EF5
Looking like I am in a fairly favorable spot at Scott City...nose of theta ridge...strong deep player shear. Something's going to get nasty nearby. Looks like storm motions will be north-northeast and flying. Time to be on the chasing A game on this event. Got to like the swelling cu fields. Mmmm hmmmm.
Jim Cross
EF1
After leaving Plainview earlier this afternoon now sitting in Jericho, TX. I plan on staying just ahead of the trough thats moving through the panhandle.
Karla Dorman
First chase and it's a PDS?!? SWEET. Want to stay in Pampa, but things look to be cooking a bit further south - driving south on 70, from Pampa, will stop in Clarendon, TX and hope like thunder I didn't make a mistake ... awaiting new updates.
Tim Purington
52 miles to Garden City, KS from Dodge city. Going to step on it. Should be there just after 21Z to check data.
Matt Gingery
I like where I am at in Clarendon, Tx. Hanging out with Jason and waiting for the action to get going. Not a massive change in data from the last update. I can move in all directions if needed rather quickly. Now under a Tornado Watch and should see initiation along I-27 shortly.
Brad Goddard
EF0
Im still headed south towards Pampa. On schedule to be there by 21z.
21Z Update
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 56-62
F/ CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD/NNWWD INTO WRN KS FROM OK...TO THE E OF A
CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY FROM W OF LBL TO NEAR GLD. THE DEEPER MIXED
LAYER AND MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER IS LOCATED TO THE W ACROSS ERN
CO. THE SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY TEND TO CONSOLIDATE THROUGH
THE EVENING ACROSS EXTREME WRN KS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION. THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-MID 70S WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG/. AT THE SAME TIME...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN
KS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...STORMS MAY GRADUALLY
MERGE INTO A LARGER N-S CONVECTIVE BAND WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.
Radar: (regional)
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Central Mississippi valley
Satellite:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Midwest/Mississippi valley
Surface:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Upper Midwest
Mid Mississippi valley
Wind profilers: (unavailable at this hour)
SPC mesoanalysis graphics available this hour:
Effective SRH and inflow base depth
LCL heights
LFC heights
Mixed layer CAPE/CIN
Lifted Index
Current wayfaring map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60773 (I've tried to keep up with everyone's position updates, incorporating the rates of travel possible so that you may not be exactly where they said they'd be, or because I misinterpreted or misread your destination...sorry if I mess that up)
Are any of you using GRLevelX today? If so, I may have a gift for you...
And one more surprise...a severe thunderstorm has produced golfball to baseball sized hail in NW NE as of 21Z. Nothing yet anywhere else, though.
21Z Update
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 56-62
F/ CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD/NNWWD INTO WRN KS FROM OK...TO THE E OF A
CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY FROM W OF LBL TO NEAR GLD. THE DEEPER MIXED
LAYER AND MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER IS LOCATED TO THE W ACROSS ERN
CO. THE SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY TEND TO CONSOLIDATE THROUGH
THE EVENING ACROSS EXTREME WRN KS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION. THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-MID 70S WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG/. AT THE SAME TIME...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN
KS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...STORMS MAY GRADUALLY
MERGE INTO A LARGER N-S CONVECTIVE BAND WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.
Radar: (regional)
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Central Mississippi valley
Satellite:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Midwest/Mississippi valley
Surface:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Upper Midwest
Mid Mississippi valley
Wind profilers: (unavailable at this hour)
SPC mesoanalysis graphics available this hour:
Effective SRH and inflow base depth
LCL heights
LFC heights
Mixed layer CAPE/CIN
Lifted Index
Current wayfaring map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60773 (I've tried to keep up with everyone's position updates, incorporating the rates of travel possible so that you may not be exactly where they said they'd be, or because I misinterpreted or misread your destination...sorry if I mess that up)
Are any of you using GRLevelX today? If so, I may have a gift for you...
And one more surprise...a severe thunderstorm has produced golfball to baseball sized hail in NW NE as of 21Z. Nothing yet anywhere else, though.
jaredleighton
EF1
Gonna sit tight in the panhandle of TX. Currently in Shamrock, but am going to start to mosey west and wait for initiation and pick a cell.
Karla Dorman
Quoted by Jeff Duda
If you want me to, Jeff, I will. =] Need all the help I can get!! LOL Newbie here ... GAD I hope I get a tor!!!! Would be the way to start my chase off with a bang!
If you want me to, Jeff, I will. =] Need all the help I can get!! LOL Newbie here ... GAD I hope I get a tor!!!! Would be the way to start my chase off with a bang!
Bob Hartig
EF5
Good grief. I should have stayed in Amarillo. I'm gonna get out of Dodge and head to Darrouzet, TX (or however the heck you spell it).
