Chase Case 7

[Greg McLaughlin]

I know the date so I am out. All I have to say is I remember watching this event unfold from Arkansas and was wishing I was on the Plains chasing.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I've decided to sit in Clarendon,TX. I'd rather be too far north than too far south.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm going to move out of Ulysses and head E through Dodge City toward Kinsley where I'll await more data...

 

[Brad Goddard]

As of 18z im gonna head south towards Pampa, TX google says I should be there by 21Z

 

[Verne Carlson]

Yup that MD looks familiar to me and now I know the date. I will sit this one out and see how everyone does!

 

[John Hudson]

Going to blast north to Medicine Lodge, KS. The surface winds are a little more backed, good juice flowing and thin cloud base.


John
VE4 JTH

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

I enjoy the lower LCL's and higher SRH around the central Texas panhandle. I like Childress, Texas, where I can use 287 as a springboard wherever development begins.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Gonna slip north on Hwy 207 to Silverton, Tx. May jog east to Caprock Canyons State Park after that. I like the lower LCL's in the area and this will be my target for the afternoon. From Pampa to Lubbock and points east and northeast. I should be in Silverton by 19z.

 

[Jeff Duda]

19Z Update

19Z Update​

Surface:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains (not available at this update)
Upper Midwest
Midwest/Mid-Mississippi valley

Satellite:
National (unavailable)
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Mid-Mississippi valley

Radar:
National

SPC mesoanalysis graphics available this hour:
0-3 km CAPE and sfc vorticity
Bulk Richardson Shear
1 km EHI
3 km EHI
Effective Shear
LFC heights

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...SW SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS IS ALSO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TO THE EAST OF THE WYOMING FRONT RANGE.

DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS PRESENTLY
VERY WEAK. BUT...MID-LEVEL COOLING IN THE EXIT REGION OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY HIGH LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AND...LIFT SEEMS LIKELY TO OVERCOME WEAK INHIBITION
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

AS THIS OCCURS...IN STRONGLY SHEARED DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH STRONG
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED WITH RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH
AS THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY WILL ENHANCE
FORCING FOR STORMS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF COOLER LESS UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

Current wayfaring map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60773

Expect the next hourly update tomorrow afternoon, and expect three updates tomorrow.

 

[Michael Riedl]

I am going to stay put in Pratt. After checking the Data twice I like where I am.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Am thinking about positioning a little further south...closer to the deeper moisture
aimed north from the TX Panhandle. I will stop at Scott City KS and re-evaluate later data.

 

[Karla Dorman]

Arrived Pampa, like where I am, but may adjust a bit east and north into SW Oklahoma if needed. Line may form just east of here, awaiting further data before I make a decision.

 

[L.B. LaForce]

Hmm, this last update says get your butt moving! No stopping in Liberal, KS, I need to get NE quick before these storms fire..don't wanna get behind em. I'm headed straight to Minneola, KS

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I will stay put in Meade, KS. I see towers forming out west.

 

[David Wolfson]

Oakley is drying out, with the the best moisture and shear still northeast of me. I'm sort-of committed to the north option, so 20Z will find me in Clayton, and Norton, KS, about 20:20Z. Hopefully things will be starting to pop about then.