Chase Case 7

[Bob Hartig]

Dryline is just to my west, and I'm thinking it may be a little too close for comfort. I see lower 60s Tds working up toward me from the OK panhandle, but I'd rather be east of initiation and have to backtrack than west of it and try to catch up with it. I'm going to nudge over to Dodge City, in the middle of the Cu field.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm moving a little east to Dodge City, Ks hoping to get a little more moisture and ready to go further east if necessary.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Adjusting from Plainview northeast a bit to Silverton, TX to wait for the show to begin.

 

[JF Massicotte]

as the dryline is closing by, I will move to Dodge City, KS, and wait there.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I am currently adjusting a little bit E of Dodge City and like where I am set up in Kinsley. I will sit and wait there for the action to come to me (hopefully).

 

[JHardy]

I'm going to jog north to Lubbock TX. Better internet coverage and a BWW to go!

 

[Jeff Duda]

Intermediate Update

*The current chase time is approximately 1930Z*​

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK (graphic)

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA


DISCUSSION...INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS COMMENCING ALONG
THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT NEAR SCOTTS BLUFF. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ACROSS WRN NEB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP/SPREAD NWD/NNEWD INTO SW SD. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
THE EVENING TO THE E/NE OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE. GIVEN
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY GROW INTO ONE OR
MORE LINE SEGMENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH STORM
MERGERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS.

 

[Bob Hartig]

C'mon, Jeff, throw us lads in SW Kansas a scrap!

 

[Tim Purington]

Still in Dodge City, KS. As always I'm trying to remind myself to stay patient. So I guess I'll head over to Dairy Queen for a Blizzard!

 

[Karla Dorman]

Dang. Too far south, too far south! But afraid if I move, I'll miss something. Staying here, waiting ... waiting ... c'mon, Texas, give me some Panhandle magic!!!!

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am holding my early afternoon position in Scott City KS....looks like things should go very shortly the entire length of the DL. Shear increasing and moisture depth looking better with cu racing north. Looks like some fast movers are in store in this strong deep shear regime in the Plains. Time to get ready....

 

[Michael Riedl]

I have a bad feeling I am too far South and too far East. There fore I am heading to Kinsley, KS. Nice clearing going on, warm temperatures and good Dewpoints. Am afraid that going to Liberal, my Second choice is potentially to far west.

 

[jaredleighton]

Going to cautiously start moving south after seeing the recent updates. Shamrock, TX

 

[Matt Gingery]

Going to head up HWY 70 towards Clarendon, Tx.. I think the bulk shear goes without saying. I do like the lower LCL's in this area and feel that the cirrus deck may help cool down the inversion layer for things a bit later. I should be in Clarendon by 20z. I am noticing a field of Cu going up to my northwest and feel confident that things will get active in this location. I am familiar chasing in these areas along Hwy 287, 70, and I-40.

 

[Jeff Duda]

20Z Update

20Z Update​

Surface graphics:
Observations (national)
Temperature/Dewpoint
Theta-e and advection
Frontogenesis

Satellite:
National
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains
Midwest/Mid-Mississippi valley

Radar:
National

Wind profilers:
Lower troposphere
Upper troposphere

SPC mesoanalysis graphics this hour:
SBCAPE and CIN
0-6 km shear
0-3 km SRH
3 km VGP

Remember, requests for additional data can be made. Expect another update around dinner time.