CHASE CASE 6

[Ben Holcomb]

The radar images are the same URL for Midwest and North plains, so I can't see how bad I'm busting in Minnesota!

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Going to maintain pursuit of the cell west of Canadian, TX.

ditto headed that way right now

my

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Still on US-36, arguing with myself if I should take US-73 to Falls City or stay on the storm on top of 36. With the roads here, a lot of people can outsmart themselves and see nothing but gorilla hail.

 

[Verne Carlson]

The cell I'm on in IA has a nice flying eagle shape to it - it might have produced by now.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

I believe I know the date now, but not sure. I would be in position at this point on that beast of a storm south of Perryton currently.

 

[Bob Hartig]

The radar images are the same URL for Midwest and North plains, so I can't see how bad I'm busting in Minnesota!

Probably about as badly as I am. Well, at least they've thrown us dogs a bone with that weak tornado touchdown in Goodhue County. I doubt I caught it, though. I've been gone all day and missed a couple model runs. In real life, with a good, old-fashioned squall line, I'd be relying pretty heavily on SRV and I'd like to think I'd be onto any rotation I could reasonably get to. At this point, though, that's about all it boils down to: riding herd on rotation out in front of the CF in southeast MN. I smell the strong aroma of a good skunking, but the day isn't over yet, so we'll see what happen.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Am signing out and going silent....I now recognize the chase event. I did not chase this one, but did some nowcasting on this one.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I'm in Villisca,Ia appproaching the line to my west.

Hey while your in Villisca you ought to stay at the Ax Murder house which is supposed to be haunted. I almost made it there on a chase in IA this year.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Well I guess I just keep following that crap line east and start heading home, watching for anything fun along the way. Maybe find some big hail or some wind damage.

I also cheated and looked up the day after the last update, so I am out now.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Hey while your in Villisca you ought to stay at the Ax Murder house which is supposed to be haunted. I almost made it there on a chase in IA this year.

No thanks Greg, I really,really don't like bloody murders

Anyway, I really don't like this line, I'm starting to think that we're gonna chase nothing more than a little meso inside the squall.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

So are we going to get a final update or something?

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

So are we going to get a final update or something?

Yeah, I've been in Falls City for 26 hours! The Sheriff's deputies are looking at me funny

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm getting antsy too, but I'm assuming that Matt is a working man and will give us the final lowdown once 5 p.m. rolls around for him. Looking forward to it, as I've been chasing this stupid squall line across Iowa and Minnesota for over 24 hours now.

 

[Matt Gingery]

23Z DATA​

SORRY THIS IS COMING IN LATE. . .


VISIBLE SATELLITE

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/25qq0dk.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/k0gchl.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/eq6z5t.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/mllxy.gif

N PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/ok8pae.gif

S PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/2vhzmed.gif

 

[Matt Gingery]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS​

MD 1:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...FAR NWRN TX/OK
PANHANDLES...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

SVR THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NWRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLES AND
PORTIONS OF SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE NCENTRAL/NERN TX
AND ERN OK PANHANDLES WAS MOVING WNWWD AROUND 15 KTS AS MODEST
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR FURTHER WEST. EXTRAPOLATING THIS CURRENT MOTION
TAKES MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J/KG/ OF MLCAPE INTO THE FAR
NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS BETWEEN 00-02Z.
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION
/AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER NCENTRAL NM/SCENTRAL CO/
MOVES STEADILY EWD ACROSS SRN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT AN
EXPANSION OF CONVECTION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/NERN NM.
INITIALLY THIS ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS LIKELY
TO BE HIGH BASED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/.
BUT GIVEN VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS MAY ENSUE. THESE STORMS WOULD BE
ENCOUNTERING MODERATE LOW LEVEL S-R INFLOW /ESELY AT 20-30 KTS/ WITH
DMGG WIND THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT /GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION INITIALLY/. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT
WNWWD...THIS CONVECTION /OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOIST
BOUNDARY/ WOULD SUPPORT LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND A GREATER TORNADO
POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR NWRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLES AND FAR SWRN KS
AFTER 00Z.


MD 2:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN KS/SERN NEB/EXTREME NWRN
MO/SWRN IA




THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES.

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEWD THROUGH NERN KS/SWRN IA WITHIN WW 290.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW /SLY LLJ AT 30 KT/ WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO THIS EXTENDED AREA OF STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
FAVORING BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE WITH HEIGHT.

AIR MASS W AND N OF THIS PRIMARY AREA OF TSTMS /NW HUT TO EAST
CENTRAL NEB/ REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT EITHER ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NE-SW THROUGH THIS AREA OR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING
W/NW FROM PRIMARY REGION OF STRONGER ACTIVITY. THUS...LOCAL
EXTENSION IN AREA OF WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS INTO SERN NEB/WRN IA PRIOR TO EXPIRATION.

MD 3:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN WI...SERN MN...NRN AND CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES.

A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STG TO SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS WW/S /FROM WRN WI SWWD INTO SERN MN AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL IA/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE SVR STORM
MOTIONS OVER WRN WI HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE LINE /40-45 KTS/ AND MAY MOVE OUT OF WW BEFORE WEAKENING.
THUS THE AREA OF NCENTRAL/WCENTRAL WI MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF WW EWD A FEW COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY SVR MODE
SHOULD BE LINEAR WITH DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SVR THREATS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STG-SVR TSTMS FROM
NWRN WI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM WRN WI INTO NERN IA WITH MUCAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...THERE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR A CONTINUED SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE GREATEST SVR WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER WRN
WI...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WHERE SEVERAL BOW
SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN MOVING ENEWD FROM 40-45 KTS. MODERATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH/ OVER WRN WI AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF BOW ECHO TORNADO WITHIN EMBEDDED LINE
SEGMENTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS OVER FAR
NCENTRAL WI. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER WW /CENTRAL IA/.


THOSE OF YOU STILL CHASING THE EVENT I WILL BE POSTING THE RESULTS SOON. THOSE OF YOU THAT KNOW THE DATE AND CHASED THE DATE, PLEASE SUBMIT PHOTOS AND VIDEOS AT THE END. THANKS!!