Chase Case #6 (2010 Version)

Jesse Risley · Dec 17, 2010

Back by popular demand, it's chase case #6. Everyone is welcome and encouraged to participate. We give you the raw information, including upper air data, visible satellite snapshots, radar composites and rawinsondes, along with MDs, watches and LSRs immediately preceding and/or during the duration of the event. This information is provided for you to make a virtual chasing target as if you were actually chasing that day.

So that you don't have to wade through pages and pages of posts, I will also copy and past updates in this post via the edit feature, besides posting a new reply within the existing thread (i.e., 30 posts deep).

The first round of data will come from the day before the actual event (12z - morning of the day before & 00z - evening of the day before). I'm including both the 12z and 0z data on the day before so that you can compare movement and juxtapositions of various upper air features.

You can decide on a preliminary target for the evening so that you can (virtually) be in a more proximal position when the 12z data is released on the day of the actual (virtual) chase.

Upper Air Data (12z day before and 00z evening before)
12z - 250 mb 0z 250 mb
12z - 300 mb 0z 300 mb
12z - 500 mb 0z 500 mb
12z - 700 mb 0z 700 mb
12z - 850 mb 0z 850 mb
12z - 925 mb 0z 925 mb

Misc. Data - 00z evening before
Satellite/Surface Composite
National Visible Satellite Imagery
National Radar Composite

SWODY2 1730z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST

--POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EPISODE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY

...SYNOPSIS...

MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GYRATE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...PRIOR TO INTENSIFYING INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...
..AS THIS OCCURS...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NEB
WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE INTO LOWER MI. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD WHILE TRAILING CF
MOVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO AND MS VALLEYS AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

Note: The next round of data will be for 12z on the day of the event, and that will include rawinsonde data.
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Update #2 - Posted Saturday, December 18 at 5:26 PM

Guten Morgen virtual chasers!

Let us know where you're targeting today, after reviewing the morning suite of data. It's now 13z; there will be another suite of surface and radar updates at approximately 16z.

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SPC 13z SWODY1 Summary

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
MCS CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY...LATER TODAY DEEP ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST....GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPE...FCST SKEW-T PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT....A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON....TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED AS STORMS SHIFT EWD AT 40-50 KT AND MERGE INTO BOW ECHOES/LINES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]

SPC MCD
1042 AM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN/NW MS/ERN AR/SE MO/WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

SPC MCD
1134 AM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY AROUND 18Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

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Update #4 - Posted Monday, December 20 at 9:36 PM

It's now 18z; there will be another suite of surface and radar updates at approximately 20z-21z.

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18z Surface Data
National Satellite/Surface Composite
Wichita, KS Regional (ICT)
Evansville, IN Regional (EVV)

18z Upper Air Data
300 mb UA obs
500 mb UA obs
700 mb UA obs
850 mb UA obs

18z Radar Data
National Radar Composite
Central Plains Composite
Central Mississippi Composite

18z Visible Satellite Imagery
National Satellite Imagery
Evansville, IN Regional Composite (EVV)
Wichita, KS Regional Composite (ICT)

Watches

TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SE IOWA / W CENTRAL ILLINOIS / MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE FROM 1230 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA / NE KANSAS
NW MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE FROM 115 PM UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

MDs

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED......PARTS OF NE MS/NRN AL AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 255 PM CDT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. * UNTIL 330 PM CDT. * AT 253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSCEOLA...OR 35 MILES SOUTH OF DES MOINES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 322 PM CDT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA. * UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 357 PM CDT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA. * UNTIL 415 PM CDT. * AT 356 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR ELDON...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEOSAUQUA. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Watches

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NC AND NE ARKANSAS / THE MO BOOTHEEL

EFFECTIVE FROM 325 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE FROM 350 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

MDs

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH

CONTINUE WW. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

Skip Talbot · Dec 17, 2010

Put me in Des Moines for the evening. That trough looks well established over the plains and there was probably a good chase day on the day before of this event (what the current data is showing) across SW KS into TX. Couple of nice storms there on the radar.

Perhaps that will low will eject dragging the warm front north with it as the trough moves into the Midwest. Des Moines, IA should be a good spot to move east and west on 80 and south on 35 if the warm front doesn't progress north enough.

Dan Melby · Dec 17, 2010

Looks like a possible chase day in my backyard. I am going to sleep in my own bed tonight in Grimes, IA. Really hope the low will push northeast enough so we can all enjoy a good Iowa chase day!

James Gustina · Dec 17, 2010

Set me up in Galesburg, IL

Verne Carlson · Dec 17, 2010

I'd be chasing in southern OK on the day before. Looks like some isolated cells worth being on right now. So after chasing I'd be staying in Wichita, KS for the next day coming up.

Chip Redmond · Dec 17, 2010

I think I will sit in Macon, MO and see what the 12z data brings....

Matt Sellers · Dec 17, 2010

Starting this event in Ames, IA.

Marcus Diaz · Dec 17, 2010

Wrapping up my chase the day before in W OK, I'll make my way towards Witchita, KS and await the 12z data.

Dennis Dennison · Dec 17, 2010

Des Moines, Ia for me too-mainly for the ability to move easily in any direction needed. gonna catch a shower and a shave and some chow at the flying J

Bob Hartig · Dec 17, 2010

Des Moines for me, too, please.

Nick Nolte · Dec 17, 2010

Green Rock, IL for me please

Damon Scott Hynes · Dec 17, 2010

Saint Joseph, Mo. I can be in Topeka in one hour, Des Moines in three.

Jacob Ferden · Dec 17, 2010

I definitely would have been chasing SW OK today, so I also would be in Wichita, KS to reduce the drive north tomorrow.

Andy Jackson · Dec 17, 2010

I'll start out around Kansas City, MO

Colin Davis · Dec 17, 2010

I'll start in Kirksville, MO, I suppose; although in reality, I wouldn't need to leave Canton (or Galesburg) to start the day.

Chase Case #6 (2010 Version)

Jesse Risley

Skip Talbot

EF5

Dan Melby

EF1

James Gustina

Verne Carlson

EF5

Chip Redmond

EF4

Matt Sellers

EF1

Marcus Diaz

EF5

Dennis Dennison

Bob Hartig

EF5

Nick Nolte

EF2

Damon Scott Hynes

EF4

Jacob Ferden

EF4

Andy Jackson

EF3

Colin Davis

EF1

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