Chase Case #6

[Matthew Fischer]

After having a good breakfast in Wichita i hit the road and is heading for Medicine Lodge, KS. Going to stock up on Mountain Dew Code and some turkey sandwiches. Going to see what comes off the dry line into the more moist air here.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Made it to Salina and saw the update, and now do not think that Goodland is far enough east. Planning on setting up shop near Hill City as I feel like the low developing in Colorado should track fairly close to my location. That 850 "forecast" worries me a bit due to the lack of deep moisture and potentially high cloud bases, but I didn't drive all this way to turn around now.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

20 Z update....

http://severechase.com/stcc20.html

Next update will be later this evening, I am going to go play around in what has become a full blown Blizzard!!!

 

[Dann Cianca]

Well, I like where I'm at in SW Nebraska ... (still would rather be in Montana thanks to the lightning map), but I'm doing to drop a bit south to US 34 and follow these storms that are overhead right now.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

I was going out on a limb here as I was initially targeting Shamrock, TX. I might be moving to Childress or further south, but will sit tight as I watch the CU field develop to the west.

 

[Danny Neal]

Gonna head west and play with the wind and hail producers in Central Nebraska.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks,Dustin for this further help I did need these fine surface plots. It seems to me to catch sight of a bulge just in Tx Panhandle, if I'm correct; that said, it is a synoptic structure I like so much when I decide to stay along the dryline. I'm moving from Liberal,Ks to Pampa,Tx.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm leaving Guymon and heading as fast as I can for Childress, TX. Wish I was closer to the dryline bulge, and that is really my target, but it's a long way off; right now I just want to head south along the dryline and see what pops up along the way. Street Atlas says it'll take me 3:47 minutes to reach Childress. Street Atlas is an old maid. Subtract one hour from that time and that'll be about right.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Going to hang tight in Guthrie as I can see a great cu field to my west. I am just NE of the dryline bulge and I like the new MD.

 

[Marc Austin]

I'm going to go north on 83 out of Perryton, TX then east on 270 towards Seiling, OK. The dryline progressed eastward much faster than I thought it might. There looks to be a zone of surface confluence over the far eastern TX Panhandle. I'm hoping initiation will occur along the dryline and kick up some isolated sups in western OK. I'll keep an eye on the sky and look for the next update as I'm moving east to reposition. Directional shear looks decent, moisture looks ok, although dew could be a little higher. If nothing else, perhaps I'll get an LP sup with some great structure!

Edit: After looking at 20Z data and just having arrived in Seiling, OK, I will move southwestward closer to the dryline in the eastern TX panhandle. I'm making a move SSWwd toward Childress, TX. I know this is still far east, but it's a 3 hour drive from here and I'm hoping to catch anything that moves northeastward toward me. I have a sinking feeling about this case, but I won't give up just yet. The dryline has a way of pulling a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute.

 

[David Wolfson]

At 18Z the situation that brought me to northern SD at Mobridge hadn't changed much. By 20Z I'm thinking of heading a bit south, but I dunno... I will stay put for another hour and see if things come to me from the triple point east of Rapid City.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Going to move from Sioux City, IA to O'Neill, NE...gives me somewhat of a better road structure to move around if need be based on later data.....like the wind profiles here...moisture is limited but with the increasing jet and any outflow boundaries this is my only show based on my initial target choice....will see what happens....

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

After looking over the 18z data I believe I am out of place. I am really looking at the dryline buldge forecast in west Texas. Since I am currently in Woodward I will bust tail south on HWY 34 towards Altus, OK. I will be trying to get into position to intercept any supercells that develop north and east of the dryline buldge. Its a two hour drive, so I don't expect to be around Altus until after 3pm. I hope I am not too late.

I guess I am in better shape then some, but I still don't like my position. I have made it down to Altus, OK from Woodward and have just looked over the 20z data. From what I can see the dryline buldge that the 15z 9hour RUC was forecasting (was in the 18z data package) is materializing. That is what prompted me to head south. At this point I am going to continue south and west from Altus to Childress, TX and then decided where to go from there. I feel like I am still a little behind schedule and a bit out of place, but sometimes you can still have success when you make the right adjustments in the nick of time. I just hope this is the right decision. With no cu development evident in this area on satellite I have a little bit of time to get in better position before initiation.

 

[Joel Wright]

Hmm. After looking at 20z I think I still like my location and will still in Hays Kansas for now. May have to head northwest later, but for now will sit here. Deep moisture convergence is pretty nice in this area. Not too thrilled to be in a severe box, but at least I should see something today lol.

 

[Jim Tang]

Gonna move a bit north to Valentine, NE; winds are getting too veered for my liking down in North Platte. Starting to regret not going south to OK/TX but I guess we'll see.

edit: actually, maybe just east of that.