Chase Case #6

[scott r currens]

I'm leaving Denver and heading up to central NE where there's good h500 diffluent flow, ample moisture and a weak surface low. Initial target: North Platte, NE

I think I'll meet up with Verne in North Platte, NE. The 12z data looks very familiar but I haven't figured out the date yet. The 500mb charts look similar to Brady, NE May 17, 2000. Maybe I'll know the date when I see the 18z update.

 

[Joel Wright]

I'll stay down in Kansas closer to the deeper moisture. I'll start our in Great Bend Kansas.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll head down I35 and jump west on I90 towards Sioux Falls, SD ready to readjust from there. The SPC outlook really helps. I'll sit in Sioux Falls till the 18z update before I make any major adjustments.

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

I think I'll play the dryline with this system. Hoping to get some isolated supercells. So a good start will be Childress, TX. I remember staying in a cheap motel there back in the 90's, so that's where I'll be.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Nope Scott...no Brady NE tornado day here on this one. But this does look familiar to me

 

[Bob Hartig]

Guymon, OK, for me. I'm torn between Amarillo and Dodge City, so this is my compromise. I can see the dryline setting up in Texas, but I'm not experienced enough with dryline chasing to know how well the Td contours will tighten up in Kansas. Assuming they do, I may head north, but here is a good place to hang for now.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Seeing the lightning definitely polluted my line of thinking. Originally I was thinking SW Nebraska (not the panhandle) ... but now I want some of that Montana action. I really want to chase SE MT ... but I'll take Hayes Center, Nebraska.

 

[John Farley]

Ignoring the lightning data I would not have ahead of time, my target would probably be the OK panhandle. I like the upper divergence, directional shear, and the sharp dryline that will be moving into this area from NM.

 

[Marc Austin]

I think I'm going to start the day in Perryton, TX. This will allow me to easily chase into the TX Panhandle or western/central KS. This is another baffling case and I can't wait to see the results. Those slight risk days are sometimes the most rewarding and surprising.

I see marginal dews over most of the map and with fairly weak surface winds over the southern plains, I don't expect too much more moisture to advect northward, but I don't think 60's dews are unreasonable by late afternoon as far north as the OK/KS border. Although soundings for OUN look good now, clouds from early convection will most likely hinder the amount of CAPE by late afternoon. I'm betting something fires from SW KS into the central TX/OK panhandles. I will grab some breakfast and await the 18Z update to see if I need to scream northward or southward.

 

[Marc Austin]

Since this is virtual Im going to start in Amarillo, TX. Ive never chased TX so lets see if I get lost or not. The AMA sounding was a little better than most and the lapse rates are maxed along with a better chance for some CAPE.

If this were real life I may sit this one out.

You probably won't get lost as long as you stay away from Wichita Falls, TX. We've gotten lost in that town on more than two occasions, and the last two times, we've had GPS! Texas offers some of the best chase terrain, but don't get down into the hill country.

 

[David Wolfson]

I just have a feeling that upper subsidence in the wake of the honking vortmax rotating up from eastern CO is going to squash some of the action in the southern high Plains. The short wave hanging back over western AZ may be a good sign in a few days, but not today.

Also the synoptics in eastern WY/MT and the western Dakotas have pretty good cold-core potential for later IMO, with all levels pretty well closed off (except the 700Mb, which I suspect is, too, but escaping the analysis). The surface low is in extreme northwest SD with nicely backed winds through the central and eastern Dakotas plus dews well up in the fifties -- almost as good as way down in OK and TX. I want to stay south of the front in far south ND angling east-southeast into northeast SD, where daytime heating will have a chance to work. The ABR sounding isn't half bad when you add a bit of mid-level cooling, daytime heating, and somewhat higher upper wind speeds -- all of which should occur later.

So my morning starting point is really hanging out there in the sticks, at Mobridge, SD. Fortunately I don't have to worry about the drive back to OK and TX.

 

[Jim Tang]

Going up north to N Platte, NE. Marginal moisture days typically don't work out if you're very far south of the base of the trough. LLJ a bit veered too. But am willing to change on a whim pending further data... tough case.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The lower instability/TDs combined with UL winds make me think this may be an earlier spring day. I'm also targeting southwestern Nebraska at this point, but I'm going to McCook because I don't want to be like everyone else, and because my options are good there.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm starting from Guymon,Ok: moisture is gonna rising up, shear is already nice, there's no a terrible cap, I will have a dry line, I love those zones; what do you want more?...It could be a nice place to start.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Based on 12 Z soundings, I imagine that things begin to destabilize more rapidly in the warm sector across S and Central Texas. Personally I would take my chances and head somewhere from Wichita Falls Tx to San Antonio. I would want to get out ahead of the system and hang out in Wichita Falls to wait for the dominant storm. Although Nebraska looks good, maybe hang in Lincoln until storms initiate. I don't base a whole lot on 12z soundings. I base alot off the soundings to get me in the general area, but the visible satellite is my baby when I am in the Lions Den. MLCAPE looks more favorable across the S. Texas area, but by 15z I am sure the energy rapidly pushes north. So, I would be in Wichita Falls Tx, storms line up SW to NE and if it looks bad north, it is much easier to head south to intercept.