CHASE CASE #2

[James Wilson]

Going through Greensburg on way to Liberal, KS and roads in all directions.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Is it to late for me to jump in?

I have left Tulsa and am heading south on I44. I will be heading to Hobart OK as a starting point and make adjustments from there. My "target area" is actually Wheeler TX but I am concerned with the movemnet of the dryline and when the shortwave will arrive. It looks like mid level temps are quite warm the farther south you go which will limit the southern extent of convection IMO. I probably will not go any further south and may actually have to move to the north later.
Right now Chad Berryhill and I are eating some of my summer sausage from my 8 pointer I shot with my bow during deer season as we make our way south.

 

[Matt Gingery]

12Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i46.tinypic.com/33opgk4.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/t6t6k8.jpg

MISS VALLEY: http://i45.tinypic.com/2emzy90.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/jtq53l.jpg


SURFACE PLOTS

S PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/15fou55.gif

C ROCKIES: http://i49.tinypic.com/rr7fac.gif

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/2ro5k43.gif

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/2pqm68z.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/2urwn5k.gif

SYNOPTIC CONUS: http://i48.tinypic.com/11me0s3.gif

UPPER AIR CHARTS

300MB: http://i49.tinypic.com/118jcpk.gif

500MB: http://i48.tinypic.com/2vlnz8x.gif

700MB: http://i50.tinypic.com/23vknrc.gif

850MB: http://i46.tinypic.com/2ep62qh.gif

SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS

AMARILLO: http://i48.tinypic.com/bhktwl.gif

DALLAS: http://i46.tinypic.com/2ryopxw.gif

DEL RIO: http://i47.tinypic.com/2qas02w.gif

DODGE CITY: http://i49.tinypic.com/iqd65z.gif

NORTH PLATTE: http://i45.tinypic.com/ru1w13.gif

OMAHA: http://i46.tinypic.com/35i7mzp.gif

OKLAHOMA CITY: http://i45.tinypic.com/34zhhj6.gif

RAPID CITY: http://i46.tinypic.com/140f3pz.gif

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

SPC
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK..

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EXTREME WESTERN IOWA...EASTERN
NEBRASKA...CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
90 S MRF 15 NNW INK 50 WSW AMA 25 NNW LBL 25 ENE MCK 35 W 9V9
40 WSW ABR 50 W AXN 40 E STC 15 WNW VOK 15 NNE MLI 25 WNW UIN
45 SW SZL 25 SSW JLN 20 NW FSM 50 NW TXK 10 NW SHV 45 NE LFK
45 ENE ACT 30 W SEP 30 SSW ABI 55 W SJT 40 SE P07.

---SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE PLAINS STATES---

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES
AND POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. DRYLINE
WILL BE PRONOUNCED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTFLOW ENHANCED
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL INTERSECT DRYLINE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. STATIONARY FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL INTERSECT DRYLINE IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTEND EAST ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA
BORDER.

...TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX...N CNTRL TX...SWRN OK...
FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH TOWARD RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE
INTERSECTION SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM.
WITH RATHER STRONG INSOLATION...AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIRECTION
SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
OF 35-45 KNOTS VEERING RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY AT 50-60 KNOTS AT 500 MB
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF MID/UPPER JET. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
APPEAR LIKELY. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG RETREATING
WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE HIGHER AND LCL HEIGHTS
LOWER.


...CENTRAL KANSAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...EXPECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE SURFACE PER 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT DDC/LBF MIX DOWNWARD AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S F. COUPLED WITH MUCH COLDER 500 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -17 TO -20 C...EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. POLAR BRANCH OF MID
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THIS
AREA...AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE ALONG
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS
AREA...POSSIBLY ENHANCED NEAR AREA OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AREA.

 

[Jim Cross]

After spending the night at the Best Western in Shamrock,Texas heading over to Brauns for lunch. Will make adjustments after lunch.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Is it to late for me to jump in?

I have left Tulsa and am heading south on I44. I will be heading to Hobart OK as a starting point and make adjustments from there. My "target area" is actually Wheeler TX but I am concerned with the movemnet of the dryline and when the shortwave will arrive. It looks like mid level temps are quite warm the farther south you go which will limit the southern extent of convection IMO. I probably will not go any further south and may actually have to move to the north later.
Right now Chad Berryhill and I are eating some of my summer sausage from my 8 pointer I shot with my bow during deer season as we make our way south.

ITS ALL GOOD LANNY! YOU JUST NOSED AHEAD OF THE 12Z UPDATE.


15Z UPDATE WILL BE EITHER LATER TONIGHT, OR EARLY SATURDAY.

 

[Wes Carter]

After a long day yesterday driving from Nashville, TN I checked the 12z and decided to lay back down for a couple of hours. I'm pretty happy with where I'm at, will everything out later in the morning. I'll probably head down to Wichita Falls around 10AM, but right now I'm staying put here in Lawton, OK.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Getting more excited after looking at the 12z data. May have to keep a super close eye on the northward advancing WF and the mixing out dryline. Have a feeling that the triple point may end up being slightly further northeast than prev. thought. See lots of sig TOR potential today....

Sitting in Pampa sniffing the nice Texas Panhandle air....ahhhh choooo

 

[Randall Cooper]

Well, after waking up and analyzing 12z data and SPC text, I am glad I didnt drive all the way down to OK or TX last night. I think we have just as much a chance of seeing some action up here than the chasers down in OK/TX, plus Im that much closer to home.

If you have not guessed already, I am gonna take the not so popular choice and play the Northern target in KS, I think I will eat breakfast and than take the short 45 minute drive down to Topeka, KS and hang out there for a while til something catches my interest and makes me move North or South and likely west! Good luck to everyone and have fun out there!

EDIT: Not sure I wanna make a move in either direction yet. Im gonna do somemore analyzing and make a decision. Right now I am torn between going a little Southwest toward Topeka or going Northwest toward Lincoln. For now, keep me placed at home eating breakfast in St. Joseph. I will analyze somemore and than make a decision.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

After looking at the very encouraging 12Z update, I'll be relocating to Memphis, TX where I can nap and check in on the 15Z update. {Questionable Rationale}

 

[jaredleighton]

Deep moisture still in west central Texas, and although SPC says the moisture will move further north, I'm gonna leave my perch in Lawrence and head to Sayre, OK. Should arrive around 18Z to mull over more data. AMA sounding looks nice, and with some nice heating in the western panhandle we will see lapse rates start to improve. I think the show will be farther west, but I'll stretch my legs in Sayre for now.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm staying put in Woodward, OK. The capping concerns to the south have already been pointed out, but I don't see that being an issue here, and while the moisture hasn't arrived yet, it's on the way.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Leaving OUN at 9AM, to Clinton, OK. Good road options. Hope the fog goes away

 

[Randall Cooper]

Ok, After analyzing it more, I have decided to head toward Emporia, KS. I can be to Emporia in about 2 hours, putting me there at around 10:00 AM. Will hang out there and wait for more data to come out.

 

[Patrick Kerrin]

I would target the Thermal Boundary/Dryline Triple Point, say a Floydada - Paducah ellipse - and readjust later as needed.

 

[Danny Neal]

From ICT will head west on 54 as I said but turn north out of Pratt and sit in Great Bend, KS. For the next update.