CHASE CASE #2

[James Wilson]

Home in Gardner, KS heading out early west down 54.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I think I'll take a ride up and hold up in Pampa...have very good luck around this town. I can almost hear the tornado sirens now....June 8th flashback.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Also, in real life I don't want to take off on a multi-day drive unless I feel there is a reasonable chance of success, given the time, costs, etc. So what I do in these chase cases is not necessarily what I would do in real life, where I would likely be slower to commit to chasing any setup not near home than I and most of us are to jump into these virtual chases.

I'm witcha. When I have to drive 500 miles just to be within range of wherever I'm going to drive the next 300 miles or whatever, it's not something I do lightly. That's one reason why I love these virtual chases. They're a great way to sharpen my forecasting skills so I make better choices when it really counts.

Matt, thanks for putting in the time and effort to make these chase scenarios happen. Big thumbs-up!

6Z SPC discussion makes me a happy camper right where I'm at in Woodward. Looking forward to the next model run.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Target: Lawton, OK

In the initial data, the copious amounts of dry air in the mid-levels and and very warm H85 underneath a cold H5 w/ dewpoints 63-65 has my intentions of a rather very unstable atmosphere. The wind flow in the mid-levels are rather flat and suspect any initiation westward to move in a ENE direction. The turning w/ height and increase in wind spd aloft are more than condusive for tornadogenisis. I'm expect a big day and will be setting up in SW OK.

 

[Wes Carter]

After mulling things over and second guessing myself repeatedly, I think I'll start out by heading out I-40 to OKC then cutting down I-44 to Lawton, OK and hanging out for a bit. I am not real proficient at retreating dryline setups, but I definitely want to position myself to take advantage of good quick roads in many directions to compensate for that. To my relatively unexperienced eye the Red River Valley is of interest to me, but everyone is looking more to the West which has me looking and thinking. But I'll go with my gut because this is about what I would do, not about following everyone else.

 

[Randall Cooper]

Im joining in kinda late on this one, but Ive been asleep all day considering I work nights.

Matt, would you please place me at home in St. Joseph, MO. I'll wake up in the morning and check on the latest data and than make my plan. As is, I am planning on waking up and heading to Wichita, unless something changes.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Will head out to Blackwell, OK and pick me up some Braum's chow and catch a few hours sleep and wait on more data....

 

[MatthewCarman]

I am moving to Dodge City KS and will wait for more information. I don't want to move to far south only to have the tornadoes in the north.

 

[John Farley]

I've made it to Springfield, and will check data in the morning and decide whether to head for Kansas or make the longer drive to the western OK/panhandles target. I will have to leave early and drive a long way from there for that target, so it will need to look really good relative to the closer target in Kansas for me to make that call.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I don't want to move to far south only to have the tornadoes in the north.

Isn't that the point of forecasting/chasing?

As much as I want to stay away from the hellhole that is Roger Mills County, Oklahoma, I guess go ahead and put me down Wheeler, TX.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I stay put in Amarillo,Tx, there's plenty of moisture down here, and I'm looking for the other chasers in this neck of the woods to discuss about this setup. Waiting for the next models run

 

[Nathan Edwards]

Sticking in Dodge City for the time being. Wasn't too keen on lack of moisture any further north last night, although given the SPC's wordings, that isn't expected to be as much of an issue as previously thought. Should have options for north or south come the morning and despite the moderate risk up here, the caprock was really tempting me earlier so we'll see whether I go north, south or stick around here

 

[Shane Adams]

Vernon, TX.

Will drift westward with the dryline through the day. Expect storm motions ENE around 35mph, so will err to the south of my target region to keep on the inflow side of any storm that forms north of me so I can see while running it down. Anything that goes south will likely be closer, giving me more time to take the "long way" towards the magic spot.

But I always suck at these virtual data sets, so it'll be interesting to watch that trend continue.

Just to clarify...these were my plans made from home, here in NRH, TX. Awaiting 13Z data to see how I actually execute the morning of.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Isn't that the point of forecasting/chasing?

I think the north area (OK/KS) has a chance at a few tornadoes and there is alot of people in TX so I will stay up here in Dodge City untill more information comes out. In real life because of the long drive I would probably not be in TX anyways.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Late to hop in..

I am starting in Fairview, Oklahoma.