CHASE CASE 4

[CZandbergen]

Can we get updated radar?

 

[Dean Baron]

A little late updating but from the 20z sat. I'd be heading south to the developing storm in the OK panhandle. It's just getting going so if it falls apart and the storm in the TX panhandle is still going strong I'll try to make a run for the TX storm. Heading towards May, OK for an intercept. Should be there in under 2 hours.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Continuing west beyond Plains, TX into NM. Haven't latched onto a storm yet, but I'll make up my mind soon.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Bob I am leaning more to the south towards Lovington. I guess I am walking

Edit: I can see, from Tatum, the cells to my WSW coming at me. In reality! I am thankful I had my car here. Like I would walk. I think I may move SW a few miles on some back roads out of Tatum.

Okay, wait looking at the map there arent really any back roads that move SW out of Tatum so I Am going to drift south on 206 toward Lovington. I am watching the tail end charlie get it act together: 22z

 

[Matt Gingery]

21Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i45.tinypic.com/snozo4.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/2epk0mb.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/2qn9ijn.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/qq4ayt.gif

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/mcrxuc.gif

SURFACE ANALYSIS

MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/ehkk3.gif

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/iokol5.gif

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE​

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABQ HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR QUAY COUNTY IN NEW MEXICO UNTIL 2150Z. AT 2120Z NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LOGAN. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LOGAN, A ROOFTOP TORN OFF CHURCH AS WELL AS SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES DEMOLISHED. SOME INJURIES..EXTENT UNKNOWN

 

[Matt Gingery]

2130Z MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM AND TX/OK PNHDL REGION INTO PARTS OF SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY


VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF
SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW. ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AROUND
700 MB STILL APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. IF STORMS ARE NOT ALREADY
SURFACE-BASED...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR THIS TO OCCUR...AS LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION...REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SHEAR IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS ALREADY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS. AS
ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED NEAR SURFACE...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TOWARD DARK.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Going for the cell WNW of Hobbs. Repositioning to Lovington. Will get into position from there.

 

[Wes Carter]

Going for the cell coming North out of the TX Panhandle into the OK Panhandle. It looks like it is a nice storm.

 

[Matt Gingery]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED​

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON FROM 440 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF DALHART
TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. .

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AN
AXIS FROM WEST OF AMA INTO SOUTHWEST KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I will follow the storm moving into the OK Panhandle and move west from there if needed.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Chasing the second cell from the tail end near Lovington, NM - will drop to the southernmost tail end storm if this one weakens.

 

[Matt Gingery]

SEVERE UPDATE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLARK COUNTY, KS. AT 2125Z NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS SHOWING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. AT 2145Z BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS 11 MILES NE OF ASHLAND. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM ALTHOUGH RADAR NOT SHOWING STRONG ROTATION AT THIS TIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THOSE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER AND MONITOR IN CASE THIS WARNING IS UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WARNING.

 

[David Wolfson]

I continued on to Loco Hills, NM, waved (I think) to CZandbergen, and a/o 21:00Z slipped southwest about ten miles onto NM 360, to the inflow notch area of the supercell. In about another 15 minutes I must decide whether to stay with this storm or hightail it east southeast past Halfway to position for the tail-end cell currently between Loving and Ochoa at 21:00Z. So, we'll say for now Halfway, NM, at 22:00Z

 

[Matt Gingery]

22Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i50.tinypic.com/2e1dcas.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/1z4ehy8.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/wmjktk.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/1payde.gif

S PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/34h9yfp.gif

SEVERE UPDATE​

AT 2215Z THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MAF HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR LEA COUNTY, NM UNTIL 23Z. LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SEVERAL SPOTTERS REPORT A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 12 MILES WNW OF LOVINGTON MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25MPH. THOSE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS TO SCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CNTRL KS AND SCNTRL NEB THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE AREA...A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

A BROAD ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION
PERSISTS INTO CNTRL KS THIS EVENING BENEATH BENIGN SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON SURFACE AND RUC FIELDS
WOULD INDICATE THAT CINH ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AND MLCAPE WAS BUILDING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NRN OK NWD
INTO KS. WHILE ROBUST SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST...ACROSS SWRN KS...CU FIELD
ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF KS HAS SHOWN LITTLE AGITATION. THIS
HAS...HOWEVER...CONTRIBUTED TO GREATER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
WHICH COULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

GIVEN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR TWO
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIOS COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS SWRN
KS MAY SPREAD NEWD OUT OF TORNADO WATCH AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL KS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL WATCH.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY...SUPPORTED BY SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS
LATEST GFS AND NAM-WRF...IS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR
WARM FRONT TAKING FORM ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN THE REGION WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS OF HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Based on the 20Z and 21Z updates, I would have moved south and west from Lehman, TX toward Lovington, NM and could have easily made it there by 21Z. I am now in Lovington looking to intercept the storm in northern Eddy County as it moves into Lea County.

Edit: Looking at the 22Z update, I will continue to move with the tornadic supercell west of Lovington, NM!