22Z UPDATE
VISIBLE SATELLITE
CONUS: http://i50.tinypic.com/2e1dcas.jpg
MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/1z4ehy8.jpg
S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/wmjktk.jpg
RADAR COMPOSITE
MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/1payde.gif
S PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/34h9yfp.gif
SEVERE UPDATE
AT 2215Z THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MAF HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR LEA COUNTY, NM UNTIL 23Z. LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SEVERAL SPOTTERS REPORT A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 12 MILES WNW OF LOVINGTON MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25MPH. THOSE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS TO SCNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CNTRL KS AND SCNTRL NEB THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE AREA...A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.
A BROAD ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION
PERSISTS INTO CNTRL KS THIS EVENING BENEATH BENIGN SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON SURFACE AND RUC FIELDS
WOULD INDICATE THAT CINH ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AND MLCAPE WAS BUILDING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NRN OK NWD
INTO KS. WHILE ROBUST SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST...ACROSS SWRN KS...CU FIELD
ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF KS HAS SHOWN LITTLE AGITATION. THIS
HAS...HOWEVER...CONTRIBUTED TO GREATER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
WHICH COULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
GIVEN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR TWO
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIOS COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS SWRN
KS MAY SPREAD NEWD OUT OF TORNADO WATCH AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL KS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL WATCH.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY...SUPPORTED BY SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS
LATEST GFS AND NAM-WRF...IS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR
WARM FRONT TAKING FORM ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN THE REGION WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS OF HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.