CHASE CASE 1

[Matt Gingery]

STARTING OFF THE WINTER DREAD SEASON WITH CHASE CASE. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THE LAST CASE AND I MAY BE LACKING SOME ADVANCE DATA TO HELP YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY IN ADVANCE.


THIS CHASE CASE WILL BEGIN WITH ALL DATA FROM THE DAY PRIOR TO THE EVENT BEGINNING AT 12Z.



12Z DATA FROM DAY 1

UPPER AIR

850MB UA DATA: http://i47.tinypic.com/nmcle0.jpg

500 MB UA DATA: http://i46.tinypic.com/28rl4cn.jpg

SFC CONUS 12 Z DAY PRIOR TO EVENT: http://i45.tinypic.com/2ebwod1.jpg

VISIBLE SATELLITE: http://i47.tinypic.com/2u55b0i.jpg

Updated Data

Southern Plains SFC Analysis 12Z: http://i47.tinypic.com/1qla92.gif

Midwest SFC Analysis 12Z: http://i46.tinypic.com/154inpy.gif

Great Lakes SFC Analysis 12Z: http://i48.tinypic.com/2drs295.gif

300mb UA chart: http://i50.tinypic.com/20zwxah.gif





-REQUESTS CAN BE MADE FOR ADDITIONAL DATA
-THIS DATA SHOULD ALLOW THOSE TO HEAD TO STARTING LOCATIONS
-THIS IS A NEXT DAY EVENT
-SOUNDINGS WILL BE GIVIN ON THE 0Z CHASE DAY DATA SOMETIME SOON

FIND A PLACE TO START!

 

[Wes Carter]

Hmmm, based on what I'm seeing I'm going to head towards Colby, KS to keep my options open to head up in any direction.

 

[Danny Neal]

Call me crazy but I think I will set up shop near Thedford, NE.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I'll add my initial guess shortly, but if this is a "chase case" and we're getting 12z data from the day before, shouldn't we be getting the day 2 outlook instead of the day 3 outlook?

 

[Matt Gingery]

In theory yes we should be delving out that data, however to prevent any leads to the date I didn't want to post the day 2 data. Now, if there is any other data that you need to help out I will gladly take requests.

I am just trying to get a good pool of people in the room before I let out too much info.

Also, You will have plenty of adjustment time for chase day. Its basically a formality at this point, but I am sure some of you will place yourself within 12 hrs of the bullseye. I'll give a hint. . .This is not a desert southwest event

 

[David Wolfson]

I'd definitely like to look at a 200-300Mb analysis to see what's coming around the western trough. My sense is that there's a little more there than you can see on the 500Mb chart. 850Mb max displaced into far west TX is one tip-off for me.

I'm seeing enough to get my cheap motel in beautiful AMA, see the "sights" today and wait for tomorrow morning.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Exactly what I need, another reason to put off doing actual work.

After quickly looking over the data, I would probably setup in Dodge City.

 

[Shane Adams]

In theory yes we should be delving out that data, however to prevent any leads to the date I didn't want to post the day 2 data.

I guess I don't understand. How is Day 2 data going to give the date away anymore than Day 3 data? All you do is add an extra day and you get the same result. These exercises aren't really interesting as is, but when you start manipulating the data feed, that's just another reason I have no desire to do the "pretend" stuff. If these are supposed to be real, then make the data available as it would be in a real-world situation.

Now, if there is any other data that you need to help out I will gladly take requests.

Yeah, you can give me the 12Z data from Day 2, since this is a "day before" scenario.

 

[Marcus Hicks]

For me I'd set up in Valentine. Give me some quick options for a more southern route.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I'd definitely like to look at a 200-300Mb analysis to see what's coming around the western trough. My sense is that there's a little more there than you can see on the 500Mb chart. 850Mb max displaced into far west TX is one tip-off for me.

I'm seeing enough to get my cheap motel in beautiful AMA, see the "sights" today and wait for tomorrow morning.

Got the new data posted in opening thread. . .

300mb UA, SFC analysis as well 12 Z day before event

 

[Matt Gingery]

I guess I don't understand. How is Day 2 data going to give the date away anymore than Day 3 data? All you do is add an extra day and you get the same result. These exercises aren't really interesting as is, but when you start manipulating the data feed, that's just another reason I have no desire to do the "pretend" stuff. If these are supposed to be real, then make the data available as it would be in a real-world situation.




Yeah, you can give me the 12Z data from Day 2, since this is a "day before" scenario.

I only added DAY 3 data as a bonus. Sorry to confuse everyone but I wanted some discussion to go with the data. This is virtual chasing, i.e. Pretend chasing. . .Im only trying to give everyone a chance to jump in before I dump all the data. I won't post the DAY 2 SPC data because it spells out to much info, sorry. . .

 

[Patrick Martin]

Matt are you going to post additional data for the day before (18z/0z) or are you going straight to 12z data the morning of?

 

[Matt Gingery]

Matt are you going to post additional data for the day before (18z/0z) or are you going straight to 12z data the morning of?

I will begin with 0Z data for chase day. . .But I would like to give everyone a chance to jump in.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I will begin with 0Z data for chase day. . .But I would like to give everyone a chance to jump in.

Ok, thanks. With that in mind, I'm going to sit tight at home north of Denver and wait on the 0z data. But, I am checking into hotel room availability in Lamar CO & Garden City, KS if I feel the need to make an evening drive to set up for tomorrow.

 

[Danny Neal]

I will begin with 0Z data for chase day. . .But I would like to give everyone a chance to jump in.

Do you know when you post "game day" data? I just want to make sure I am around for it.