Scott Weberpal
EF5
I'll be spending the night in Hays, KS sitting down for a drink or two and a pre-tornado steak at Applebees.
Corey Sloan
EF1
I agree to drop the SPC text...I would like to see the 700mb map/analysis but as things are right now I am headed to the McCook, NE area and wait on data.
Matt Gingery
Thanks to those of you who are patient and understanding. I have removed the text for SPC to eliminate some unecessary drama. Lets just have fun, eh?
Matt Gingery
Nathan Edwards
EF2
Good to see another one of these starting up. I'm gonna stay in Kearney NE for now and see how things look with the next set of data. I don't expect things to be this far east but the road options north and south are better here and I should be able to make it west with plenty of time the following day.
Michael O'Keeffe
I'm gonna head west to Salina for the night with great road options in every direction.
Dean Baron
Supporter
Hmmm...think I'll head to Ness City, KS for now. Thinkin I'm gonna have to move but not sure where to yet.
Randall Cooper
EF2
As this is still the day before, I will be staying home and waiting for 12z data tomorrow, most likely shooting down toward Topeka in the morning, unless things change.
Corey Sloan
EF1
Thanks Matt for the case study and the 700mb map.....will sit tight in McCook, NE for now and wait for tomorrow's data......
Steve Polley
EF2
Think I will set in Goodland for now with better road options there.
I don't get this. How are we supposed to make a prediction on a chase that may or may not occur over 24 hours from the data being shown? I have no model data to look at. How do I know if anything is going to happen? I can only make predictions based on the Norwegian cyclone model and pure guesswork. What you could/should provide is 12Z data the day of the event and model forecasted 00Z data. Looking at the data you shown, there is no one city I could see going to over anything else. Hell I'll just sit at home for now and wait until tomorrow's 12Z data before I even bother leaving home for a possible no-chase. You have to give us some sort of forecast or this is just stupid.
Jason Boggs
You're supposed to do that on your own. Being a met student it seems lime you might be able to figure out a possible area to chase...but maybe not. I agree that it's not a whole lot of info, but lets just have fun with it.
Jason Boggs
I think I'll head to Great Bend, KS and spend the night there.
Matt Gingery
AS THE CHASE BEGAN JUST HOURS AGO AND I FEEL WE HAVE SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF PLAYERS WE CAN BEGIN. IN ROUTE TO YOUR STARTING POINT BASING MOST OF WHAT YOU USED TO FORECAST OFF THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS WELL AS DRYLINE MIXING EAST YOU AWAKE FROM YOUR NAPS OR JUST FINISH YOUR STEAK DINNERS IN PREPARATION OF YOUR SCORE AND DECIDE TO CHECK SPC OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW. SPC THE EVENING BEFORE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
THOSE OF YOU THAT WERE ABLE TO READ AND UNDERSTAND WHY I HAVE BEEN DELAYING INFORMATION TO ALLOW EVERYONE TO COLLECTIVELY GET INVOLVED, THANK YOU VERY MUCH!! SOME OF YOU WERE ABLE TO CLEARLY SEE EVERYTHING OFF THE UA FLOW CHARTS AND ARE ALREADY WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE, GREAT FORECASTING ABILITY!!
THE OBJECTIVE ARE BASED ON A ONE DAY EVENT INTO THE EVENING, SO 0Z DATA WILL BE CONFINED TO UA CHARTS, SOUNDINGS, AND SFC ANALYSIS LATER TODAY IN REALTIME.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS THE SPC 21Z THE EVENING BEFORE THE EVENT!!
THIS UPDATE IS 21Z FOR THE DAY PRIOR.
...NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
AN MCS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MN.
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS ALONG
ALONG/S OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
WI...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE DECAYING CLUSTER.
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS IN THE NRN PLAINS AND NORTH OF THE
LAKES REGION SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE OF
MULTICELL VARIETY. BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A MODEST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROTATING EWD
THROUGH NV IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LOW OVER WRN SD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CNTRL
SD BY TOMORROW EVENING...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD INTO
WCNTRL MN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F AS FAR W AS THE WY BLACK HILLS.
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/SWRN SD WILL INTENSIFY AND PROBABLY ROOT
INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF SD BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BACKS WITH TIME
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FLOW TURNS MORE WLY RESULTING IN
STRONGER VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SET-UP APPEARS SIMILAR
TO PRIOR TSTM EVOLUTION WHERE WRN EXTENT OF THE TSTMS
EVOLVED INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST REMAINED DISCRETE
THE LONGEST. 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY. MOREOVER...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
SD. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE INITIALLY HIGH LCLS.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VLY. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WARM DURING THE NEXT
24-HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS W TX. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM
INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/WRN NEB INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS THE
TX/OK PNHDLS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THAT GIVEN A STORM...SUPERCELL STRUCTURE COULD RESULT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DECREASING SEVERE
THREATS.
THOSE OF YOU THAT WERE ABLE TO READ AND UNDERSTAND WHY I HAVE BEEN DELAYING INFORMATION TO ALLOW EVERYONE TO COLLECTIVELY GET INVOLVED, THANK YOU VERY MUCH!! SOME OF YOU WERE ABLE TO CLEARLY SEE EVERYTHING OFF THE UA FLOW CHARTS AND ARE ALREADY WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE, GREAT FORECASTING ABILITY!!
THE OBJECTIVE ARE BASED ON A ONE DAY EVENT INTO THE EVENING, SO 0Z DATA WILL BE CONFINED TO UA CHARTS, SOUNDINGS, AND SFC ANALYSIS LATER TODAY IN REALTIME.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS THE SPC 21Z THE EVENING BEFORE THE EVENT!!
THIS UPDATE IS 21Z FOR THE DAY PRIOR.
...NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
AN MCS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MN.
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS ALONG
ALONG/S OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
WI...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE DECAYING CLUSTER.
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS IN THE NRN PLAINS AND NORTH OF THE
LAKES REGION SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE OF
MULTICELL VARIETY. BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A MODEST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROTATING EWD
THROUGH NV IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LOW OVER WRN SD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CNTRL
SD BY TOMORROW EVENING...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD INTO
WCNTRL MN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F AS FAR W AS THE WY BLACK HILLS.
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/SWRN SD WILL INTENSIFY AND PROBABLY ROOT
INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF SD BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BACKS WITH TIME
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FLOW TURNS MORE WLY RESULTING IN
STRONGER VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SET-UP APPEARS SIMILAR
TO PRIOR TSTM EVOLUTION WHERE WRN EXTENT OF THE TSTMS
EVOLVED INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST REMAINED DISCRETE
THE LONGEST. 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY. MOREOVER...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
SD. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE INITIALLY HIGH LCLS.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VLY. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WARM DURING THE NEXT
24-HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS W TX. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM
INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/WRN NEB INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS THE
TX/OK PNHDLS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THAT GIVEN A STORM...SUPERCELL STRUCTURE COULD RESULT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DECREASING SEVERE
THREATS.
Last edited by a moderator:
Matt Gingery
GREAT USE OF LIMITED DATA! MANY OF YOU PLAYED THE SAME AREA, AS WELL AS THE DRYLINE THROUGH KANSAS INTO TEXAS. PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST IF NEEDED. . .
Last edited by a moderator:
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