CHASE CASE 1

[Corey Sloan]

Still sitting in McCook, NE....latest info leaves my decision unchanged at this point....waiting on more data.....

EDIT: Shortwave in SC CO, main upper level low in the Pacific NW, surface low in WC WY, 40 kt 850 SWLY's, not overly impressed with 500 winds, ok UL Jet streak into the area (better across SD), moisture return is evident in the target area with SLY winds of 10 to 15 kts per surf obs and vis sat imagery.....

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

My theory is, Models are only good as the data put into them. My method is to help refine everyones ability to take the data as it comes and base their chase on real time data and adjust without the frustration of models changing every update. At 0z you will get all the 0z UA data etc.

A lot of veterans would likely buy you a steak dinner for this comment right here. You can really learn a lot about some people's methods when browsing a thread like this. Who can really read into the meteorology of things, and who needs someone else to do it and type it out to them in discussion form? Same goes for those continually posting in forecast threads trying to decide "which model to believe".

As for me, I see a lot of people flocking to the high plains, but I just finished an overnight drive and will be catching some Z's at a friend's place in Oklahoma City for a bit, but will be heading west shortly. Thinking panhandle.

Probably head out in a couple hours for an area near Shamrock, TX along Highway 83.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Just jumping in at North Platte, NE, where I can bump north or south depending on future data. FWIW, I'd prefer not having the SPC's input until maybe after the fact, when I can match my reasoning with theirs. Realistically, yeah, I check everything they issue during actual chase scenarios. But in these sims, what's the point of letting them do my work for me?

BTW, Matt, thanks for getting the ball rolling!

 

[MatthewCarman]

I am driving to Kearney NE and will wait for further information or storm initiation.

Edit: It is interesting according to the maps how nobody is in the Moderate risk area in SD/ND and that only 1 person is playing TX/OK. 90% of the chasers are in NE/KS.

 

[Dean Baron]

Driving north from Ness City, KS to Colby, KS to wait for data, don't really see much need to go much farther north.

In real life, I'd probably be in the Dakotas, but oh well.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I am driving to Kearney NE and will wait for further information or storm initiation.

Edit: It is interesting according to the maps how nobody is in the Moderate risk area in SD/ND and that only 1 person is playing TX/OK. 90% of the chasers are in NE/KS.

I read that map as being the previous days 21z Day 1 outlook and not the charts from the actual chase day. I'm sticking in Kearney for now and we'll see what the 00z data brings.

 

[Matt Gingery]

ITS GAME DAY!!

0Z FORECAST AND SYNOPSIS​

UA CHARTS​

300MB UA: http://i45.tinypic.com/28vbw1x.gif

500MB UA: http://i46.tinypic.com/23uplic.gif

700MB UA: http://i50.tinypic.com/33uv1p1.gif

850MB UA: http://i50.tinypic.com/15wz6rn.gif

925MB UA: http://i49.tinypic.com/9ktuua.gif

SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS​

AMARILLO: http://i49.tinypic.com/wl8uc8.gif

DAVENPORT: http://i50.tinypic.com/2ivgs4x.gif

MINNEAPOLIS: http://i49.tinypic.com/210zmua.gif

OMAHA: http://i50.tinypic.com/20sc288.gif

RAPID CITY: http://i45.tinypic.com/xnhveb.gif

SCOTTSBLUFF: http://i48.tinypic.com/2vj75o0.jpg

TOPEKA: http://i50.tinypic.com/nnsfeo.gif

0Z SFC ANALYSIS​

MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/2rh08r9.gif

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/112dfd5.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/2mez7yv.gif

WIND PROFILER: http://i46.tinypic.com/2mr8z6d.gif

MOISTURE DIVERGENCE: http://i48.tinypic.com/10dz2te.gif

SYNOPTIC MAP: http://i47.tinypic.com/15oytnd.gif

SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

HATCHED MAP: http://i48.tinypic.com/21ad1d0.gif

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CNTRL/ERN SD...EXTREME NRN NEB...EXTREME WCNTRL MN...AND EXTREME SE
ND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN
PLAINS...THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A NARROW SWATH OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS....

...NRN PLAINS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WA/ORE...WITH ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING NEWD OVER MT/ND/SD...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING EWD
OVER WRN UT. THE UT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD TO ERN WY/NE CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING WAVE. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL SD EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE OCCLUDING IN ND EARLY TOMORROW.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE PATH OF
THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEAK ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER ERN NEB...WITH A LARGER
CLUSTER MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE MN CLUSTER MAY
PERSIST INTO WI TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS...AND THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF THIS CONVECTION ARE A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THIS FORECAST. THE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NE NEB TO NW IA
AND SW MN...WITH GENERALLY 58-60 F DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN NEB TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LLJ
WEAKENS BY MID MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE HEATING TO
MODIFY THE COLD POOL. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES
DIFFUSE...NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF THE UPPER 60 DEWPOINT PLUME
SHOULD RESUME FROM ERN KS/NEB TO CENTRAL AND ERN SD BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/.

ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS AS EXPECTED ACROSS
NEB/SD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NW NEB AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN SD.
CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
MCS/S. SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NE OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE SD...WHERE THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COINCIDES WITH
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS DRYLINE...
ABQ/DNR SOUNDINGS WARMED 2-4 C THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER FROM 2 DAYS AGO
TO YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THIS WARMER EML PLUME MAY ACT AS
A STRONGER CAP OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FROM N TX TO
ERN KS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING/ASCENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.


WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60451

**FEEL FREE TO MAKE REQUESTS FOR ADDITIONAL DATA EXCLUDING SATELLITE/RADAR
**12Z UPDATE WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON**
**VISIBLE IMAGERY/RADAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 12Z**

 

[Danny Neal]

From Thedford, NE I am making a 2 1/2-3 hour drive to Gregory, SD

 

[Matt Gingery]

Visible satellite would be nice.

I KNOW DEAN, I AM NOT POSTING ANY VIS SATELLITE OR RADAR DUE TO THE DAY PRIOR EVENT TAKING PLACE THAT WOULD CONFUSE EVERYONE. THE DAY PRIOR WAS A BIG DAY AS WELL, SO THAT MAY GIVE CLUES TO THE DATE. I AM SURE EVERYONE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE A FAIRLY ACCURATE FORECAST WITH THE DATA GIVEN.

AT 12Z I WILL BE POSTING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE/RADAR, WW, AND SOUNDINGS.

 

[Dean Baron]

Waiting to see visible satellite on the next update. Heading to Kearney, NE from Colby, KS. Ideally would like to be in south centra/southeast South Dakota but that's a bit too far of a drive and Nebraska looks decent.

My bad Matt, I must've read your post wrong that said feel free to ask for more data excluding sat/radar. Thought it said including...

 

[Matt Gingery]

NO PROBLEM DEAN. SOUNDS LIKE YOU HAVE A GREAT PLAN. NOW IS THE TIME TO FIND A HOTEL AND HAVE A FEW BEERS AND CHILL WITH THE STORM CHASING BUDDIES GOING OVER THE DATA FOR TOMORROWS BIG DAY.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Going to stick with the southern play and adjust west slightly to Clarendon, Texas right between Amarillo and Childress on Highway 287.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Have decided to not stay in Salina and head north to Grand Island for the night and will head to Wall, SD early tomorrow. With the upslope flow from the Black Hills, the dryline, and great directional shear it seems like a good spot to be in.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Still driving towards Kearney and have decided to continue into SD. I will stop at Reliance SD if I can make it in time.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am staying put in Salina tonight. Once 12z data is in I will look things over, decide on an initial target and quickly get on the road. Right now I am thinking I will end up somewhere in weatern Kansas or southwest Nebraska. I am going to play the area where energy will be rounding out of the base of the trough.