CHASE CASE 1

Target: Grainfield, KS

The 12z data has a noticeable shortwave at H5 along the periphery of a closed low situated in the northwest pacific. A warm/moist environment has developed under the presence of SSW flow straight from the gulf for an extended period of time. In the presence of a dry southwest wind a dry line has developed across the target area. The overall dew point is relatively low at 61F, however increased moisture is expected as the LLJ continues to strengthen with the approach of western shortwave. 700mb temperatures don’t appear too warm across the area, but w/ lack of forcing/convergence and at 8 degrees suspect a sufficient cap inversion to hold strong until aiding in a highly unstable environment and approaching shortwave further erode inversion firing off organized super cellular tornadic thunderstorms.
 
The dynamics are to the north (as usual), but sufficient thermodynamics are also there. I'd be targeting somewhere in SC SD. Upslope flow from the easterly winds as the surface low arrives could help initiate storms. However, the dryline play looks decent, too, but only in spots. The 00Z KAMA sounding looked good, but other soundings in the area did not. Flow is not as good there (winds are kind of weak), and the cap is of concern, but there will likely be greater instability in the NW TX area. I prefer shear, though, so I'd go north.
 
Me, I'm gonna stick around North Platte and wait for more data to either make me happy as a clam right where I am, or else give me a compelling reason to head for South Dakota. Any of you North Platters care to grab a brew?
 
I am going to stay put where I am. But could we get a sounding from Omaha and North Platte, just to make sure I want to cancel my hotel reservations in Lexington, NE
 
After reviewing the 0Z data in Colby, I have decided to continue driving to North Platte, NE. That choice of taking I-70 to KS or I-76 to NE got me again! Luckily there is plenty of time to adjust north, get some sleep, and wake up early for the 12Z data.
 
Matt, Can you please update my position to North Platte

Well, ETA to North Platte is 4 AM, just in time to get in and catch a little sleep before getting up around 7 or 8 AM to look at more data.
 
North Platte seems like a good choice for me. Good road options from here. Noticed that 70 td are advecting NW from the OK/KS border. Helicities should be maximized further to the north at this point but I am a little concerned with the storms to the north being less discrete. Guess I will split the difference for now, get a room and see what 12z brings.
 
**URGENT**​

A QUICK UPDATE TO ALL CHASERS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HATCHED AREAS. BE SURE TO HAVE YOUR VEHICLES UPDATED WITH LEXAN WINDOW PROTECTION AND OTHER HAIL PROTECTION METHODS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DEVELOPING DANEROUS SITUATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.

EXPECT TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


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FORECASTER: GINGERY
 
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