GOOD MORNING CHASERS!!
IT IS SHORTLY AFTER 5 A.M. CDT AND THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION HAS POPPED IN ADVANCE OF THE 12Z FULL UPDATE. USE WHAT INFORMATION YOU CAN TO ADJUST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS UNTIL THE NEXT UPDATE. REPOSITION IF NEEDED AND HAVE SOME BREAKFAST.
FULL 12Z UPDATE WILL BE POSTED AT LUNCH TIME. . .
**URGENT**
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/UPDATE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID
A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS IN A LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN THIS
MORNING.
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN
MN WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE
TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING DUE
TO AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER SRN SD.
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT...MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY REDUCE THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN THIS
MORNING.
UPDATED SPC HATCH FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN O
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA EASTWARD TO
WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEVADA/UTAH THIS
MORNING TO WYOMING BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COMPLICATED THE FORECAST SOME ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT A FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD RESUME LATER
TODAY FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN NEB NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
SD. THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY LATE EVENING THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GROW INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND MN...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH WRN WI FROM A SURFACE LOW
IN E CNTRL MN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STATIONARY FRONT. BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE IF STORMS CAN MOVE SEWD ALONG OR JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO SELY AND WHERE IT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
