CHASE CASE 1

[Matt Gingery]

**SEVERE T-STORM WARNING ISSUED**​

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MINNEAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA. . .
WASHINGTON AND RAMSEY UNTIL 8:30 AM CDT. . .

AT 7:45 A.M A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. . . THESE CELLS ARE LOCATED NEAR VADNAIS HEIGHTS AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30MPH. 1" HAIL WAS OBSERVED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT IN VADNAIS HEIGHTS AT 7:43 A.M. ANOTHER CELL WAS LOCATED NEAR MAHTOMEDI IN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT 7:38 A.M. WHERE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY PUBLIC WORKS.

IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. . .


EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING SOME WHICH MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS BRIEFLY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING BUT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Vis sat shows convection moving out of SD nicely so heating should not be an issue. SFC dews near and E of triple point are in the upper-mid 50's with some really nice low level backed winds. I'm heading north out of Valentine to I-90 and then E to Plankinton, SD at the 90/281 intersection. I should arrive in Plankinton at about 2:30CT. If initiation happens earlier in the day, I can race back west but at the current time, I don't see this being an issue.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

With the trough still out to the west I will assume the moisture and 850s will back more as the day goes on with that said I am making my way out of Grand Island and up to Murdo, SD I hope to be there before 3pm.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I think I see a mesolow near Broken Bow...maybe Holdredge was too far west, after all. I know this seems like a chickenous way to chase, but if the dews drop in Holdredge I'm heading east. Not too far, though--because E Nebr won't be able to recover.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Hmmm...think I'll be pleased to hang out right here in Thedford, NE, at the tip of the 850 moisture lobe. Good upper air support coming in from the southwest, a shortwave moving in from Colorado, and backing surface winds. No reason right now to move.

 

[CZandbergen]

Not liking the southern play anymore. Leaving Garden City KS and heading for Grand Island NE. Should be there about 2PM. Shouldn't have headed so far west last night.

 

[Chris Strahan]

Heading to Murdo, SD from Valentine, NE

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I'm heading north to join the crowds in SD. I'm not that keen being this far south away from where the best UA support will be, but the terrain becomes an issue further north. If the terrain is going to be awkward, it may as well be stunning so I'll head to Kadoka with the hopes of catching a nice storm over the badlands (still have my National Parks annual pass from this year ). I should be in Presho at about 18z for a data check and Kadoka for 20z. Hopefully things hold until then. More northern options are probably out of play given the 8 hour drive ahead but I could potentially deviate as far north as Pierre if required at 18z.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm glad I kept to just 2 beers with Bob Hartig last night. Certainly did not want to be feeling any ill effects for today's chase. Was up early to check out the 12z data, and am now en route to Murdo, SD where I can stop and grab the 15z data and decide if I want to stay put or continue east from there to Chamberlain.

 

[David Wolfson]

Packed up and on I-80 east at 13Z with all dispatch. Apparent mesolow in eastern NE and good OAX sounding. Looks like enough clearing near the river and into IA for decent surface temps by late afternoon. Next stop, Chalco, NE, near Omaha for fuel and the 18Z updates.

 

[Matt Gingery]

**URGENT BULLETIN**​

MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 14Z​

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...NERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN CO

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NERN
UT INTO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL WY AND NWRN CO. HAIL...LOCALLY
APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES...IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE MORNING. AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT ACROSS SWRN-SRN WY INTO NWRN CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-25 C AT EKO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN
UT AT 14Z. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED ON THE 12Z SLC
SOUNDING...THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTED IN A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS. VIS IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
700 MB THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL INTO SWRN WY/
NWRN CO TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO NWRN CO/SRN WY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT
LOCALIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHILE VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.


MD #2

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/SE MN/WRN INTO CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AS ONGOING STORMS BECOME SFC BASED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL...

A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SE MN INTO SW WI THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWATONNA TO WINONA. STORMS
NOW W OF EAU CLAIRE WI ARE ELEVATED GIVEN WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB
NOTED ON 12Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...MORE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS...EXTENDING NORTH
FROM IA. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS NE IA AND THE SRN HALF OF WI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
OR HIGHER. STORMS WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED THE ROCHESTER MN AREA HAD
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 INCH HAIL...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BECOME SFC BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WAVE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN FOCUSED LIFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL /100-150 J/KG
FROM 0-1 KM/ SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY

WHILE STORMS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...RUC POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY 18-19Z SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE COMPLETELY ERODED ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN WI.

 

[Bob Hartig]

This is the kind of thing that kills my confidence. A mass exodus for South Dakota, most recently joined by my beer-drinking compadre, Pat, and corroborated by a hatched SPC outlook. Dave Wolfson heading east for Iowa. Does nobody love poor old Thedford, Nebraska? Of course I see the triple point to the north, but I also see--or at least, I think I see--plenty of energy moving right this-away. If I'm badly misinterpreting the data, then someone more knowledgeable than I, please feel free to set me straight. I'd rather use these case studies to learn a thing or two than to reinforce my ignorance. Otherwise, here I sit in north-central Nebraska until the next model run tells me different.

EDIT: Whoops, responding to Dave's post; the MD snuck in there ahead of me. Think I'll take a gander.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I honestly don't like anywhere in the central plains a whole hell of a lot. But since I'm down here, I'm going to continue busting alone in the southern plains. Mid-level temperatures suck so I don't for-see a lot of convection down here before sunset, but really liking the low level shear down here so I'll sit tight. Getting out of the small towns down here repositioning to the NW Panhandle and will likely sit and get a sun burn in Dalhart, TX. If I had gone north, I'd be in central South Dakota right now.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I am on my way to Bassett, NE. Will analyze more data on the way, still don't want to over commit to any one place just yet.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

It's tempted to head further east into the better moisture, but I'm staying put in Kadoka, SD. The best upper level energy is just nosing into SW WY at this point, and that approaching energy should help sustain cyclogenesis in the W. Dakotas and backing low-level flow should help advect moisture into the higher terrain west of the Missouri River.

I still have high hopes that a good storm or two will go up over the Black Hills area and move east toward my position. Should be pretty (possibly LP) storms given the limited moisture. Probably not huge tornado potential, but if there is one it should be picturesque.