CHASE CASE 1

[Danny Neal]

From Gregory, SD, I will nose west to US 183 and take that north to PRESHO, SD. I have a good N-S road in 183 and E-W in I-90. While I think initiation may take place further to the west and south west I think this is a good starting point being 15Z on the day of.

EDIT: Now my typical second-guessing myself begins..... Why do I feel the urge to head back south and east. Grrrrr. NO I am sitting here in Presho for now.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Surface data for the western Dakotas please!

HERE IS THE DATA YOU REQUESTED. FOR SOME REASON MY OTHER SOURCE IS CUTTING THAT OFF. I WILL DO MORE RESEARCH AND TRY TO FIND ANOTHER SOURCE FOR THAT DATA. ITS ALSO POSTED ON THE 15Z UPDATE POST

http://i45.tinypic.com/2h4c9jk.gif


ENLARGED VIEW

http://i49.tinypic.com/iw4wmq.gif

 

[CZandbergen]

Can we get 15Z profiler data?

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Well, I guess I'll start up my rocket car and head for Lexington, NE.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Ah, there we go--surface low in southwest Nebraska keeping 15 kt surface winds nicely backed, with lower 60s dewpoints advecting in from eastern KS. Probably I'd be fine just sitting at Thedford; but, assuming that the low is going to translate northeast, I think I'll nudge east a bit to Taylor, NE, on US 183, where I can meet the moisture coming in. Plus, it's my small contribution to Danny's emotional well-being.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

It appears there's an elongated area of low pressure extending from SW SD into SW NE. The better moisture will continue to get pulled westward as sfc winds back, so I still like SW SD, and again am staying in Kadoka. I have a feeling I'll eventually move south a little toward the SD/NE border, but longitudinally, I feel I'm in a great spot. Bring on the LP's!

 

[Matt Gingery]

Can we get 15Z profiler data?

PROFILER ADDED TO POST. . .



THOSE WHO HAVEN'T JUMPED IN ON THE CHASE, FEEL FREE TO JOIN. IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE CHASE DAY, STILL A TON OF DATA TO BE RELEASED.

I WILL TRY TO POST AN 18Z UPDATE AROUND 9 PM, AND A 21Z UPDATE TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Sitting in Bassett, waiting for more data. Does anyone know if Tim V has his hotline up and running?

 

[Danny Neal]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3lw3Z_Xi1k Have arrived in Presho, SD, just in time for an omen

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm was northbound on hwy 83 just passing into SD as the 15z data came in. After having a look at surface obs, going to detour east on hwy 18 over to Winner, SD. Moisture is starting to advect to the NW in response to surface low over northeast CO/southwest NE and would rather put myself closer to the nose of the deeper moister as we continue to get heating. At this point it will allow me to keep central SD open as well as northeast NE depending on how the day plays out.

 

[Danny Neal]

The way I see it. I am just to the north of where the low will track. Currently it is in SW NE (http://i49.tinypic.com/dyrwwj.gif) and figures to drift NE through W-C NE into SW or SC SD. I figure being just north of the low track will give me an opportunity to head E as the winds back and it draws in moisture. With lower LCL's around the 10-14 degree range and the vorticity involved with the low pressure, I believe if I can stay right near and just to the east of the triple point I may have a shot. Which is why I think I may have to head BACK south and east. There won't be as rich of moisture up here, but being in the higher terrain it my just work to my favor. Low 60's with low 70's looming down toward Omaha and points south. Looking a satellite, I like what I see (or don't see for that matter) Overall I feel like I am in the right general area, just haven't 100% decided where it will be worth my day. So I will wait here on 183 and 90 for new data.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I hate you all!!! Thedford was my original target when we first started posting and only AFTER I sit there for a day all by myself, you all decide to flock there when I leave... Do I smell?

No it's not you, there is just NOTHING in Thedford except a gas station, a lil diner, and I think a small motel.

 

[Bob Hartig]

No it's not you, there is just NOTHING in Thedford except a gas station, a lil diner, and I think a small motel.

Exactly. Another reason why I skipped out of Thedford and headed for the cultural hotbed of Taylor.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

McCook, NE is 241 miles from Salina, KS. I left for Salina, KS around 8am and arrived in McCook, NE around 11:30am. After seeing 15z data I am going to head northeast to Lexington, NE. I want to stay east of the surface low. With the upper low out to the west I don't expect the surface low to move east until later in the evening. I am concerned about surface dews mixing out, however I am crossing my fingers and hoping the backed surface winds will continue to advect deeper moisutre in from the south and east. Dewpoints over the eastern half of Kansas are running in the mid to upper 60s to 70 degrees. This deeper moisture does appear to be nosing back to the northwest into southeast NE.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Exactly. Another reason why I skipped out of Thedford and headed for the cultural hotbed of Taylor.

http://www.americantowns.com/ne/taylor-things-to-do

THERE YA GO BOB! THIS SHOULD HELP YOU FIND ALOT OF FUN THINGS TO DO IN TAYLOR. I WAS ACTUALLY AMAZED THAT TAYLOR SHOWED UP IN THE GOOGLE SEARCH ENGINE. . .



*NOTE TO EVERYONE THAT I FAILED TO BRING UP EARLIER IN THE CASE. . .STAR TREK TELE-TRANSPORTERS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN THIS CHASE TO HELP MAKE UP GROUND TO GET TO A PARTICULAR AREA QUICKER. YOU CAN HOWEVER DRIVE A FAST VEHICLE. . .