CHASE CASE 1

[CZandbergen]

This is an interesting setup as I think the MD's are red herrings that is unless this is a null case. I am leaving Grand Island to cheat west on I80 toward Lexington NE. If this show is going to happen with day light left I think it will be north and maybe west of there.

None of the hodo's in the 18Z data are getting me hot and bothered...

 

[Matt Gingery]

I AM ASSUMING THERE WILL BE NO REQUESTS OR QUESTIONS ON THE 18Z DATA. I AM SIGNING OFF, AND WILL UPDATE WAYFARING IN THE MORNING AND POST THE 21Z DATA AS WELL.

 

[CZandbergen]

I SURE AM GLAD I GOT THE FIRST CHASE CASE GOING. MAYBE I WILL BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO PARTICIPATE IN CASE #2 IF SOMEONE IS SO INCLINED TO VOLUNTEER A DATE. ANY TAKERS??

I am glad you did as well. I think the next one needs to be more real time. Maybe set it up on a weekend so people will have the time it takes to pay close attention. Start with 0Z on a Friday or Sat and then go real time from there with hourly updates from 18Z on.

Do me a favor and PM the sources you are using for the data you are presenting and I will look into it.

 

[jaredleighton]

Admittedly I'm late to the chase, but thought I'd give my two cents anyway. Will try to keep up with the chase next time.

Anyway at 12Z, I'm choosing to set up shop in Mission, SD. I like the fact that the early convection is off to the east and that the Mission area of SD is clear for some diabatic heating. My most likely next move is to run north to I 90 for my E-W option, but with the WF still lurking in C Neb I'm not going to go too far north for the time being. The deep moisture is also still well off to the south and will be counting on some strong moisture advection to bring it farther north.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I didn't realize the Scottsbluff, NE sounding is actually North Platte. Sure enough though, KLBF is North Platte. I don't like that epic nose either on the sounding. I am going to head north from Lexington to Valentine, NE. Its a 2:45 drive, so I will be there around 21Z. I guess I will see if something goes up that way.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I will take a short drive from Bassett, NE to Lone Pine, NE. Like the road options a little bit better there.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I am finally ready to buy into South Dakota. Going to hang my hat by I-90 and US 83 outside of Vivian, or maybe in town or at the airport, depending on what I find there. I like the cu field that's showing on the satellite. Moisture is coming in just fine, surface winds are backed, and I like the narrower dewpoint depression and corresponding lower LCLs.

There may be something to be said for speed convergence with the stronger surface winds down in NE right in the area I'm leaving, but I'm not liking the cap or the 20-degree temp/moisture spread.

 

[David Wolfson]

Darn if at 18Z the best little echo and vis return isn't just about on top of me at Chalco, NE. The OAX sounding shows the widespread, pesky 850 cap that's pushing Tc to 95F. Mid-80s temps and Td of 70 are already in the pipe, so we're not too far off, actually. What I'm hoping is that the earlier precip to my west into the dry layer at 850 has cooled it off a bit, and good things will happen when this advects eastward. I will hang here in Chalco to see what develops. The gradient is tightening from the west, so helicity should be improving through the afternoon.

 

[James Hammett]

Digging the bubbling Cu and lower dew spreads further west of my position. Left Chamberlain for Vivian, SD to wait for more data or initiation.

 

[Wes Carter]

I'm going to keep heading North on 61 from Hyannis to Merriman, NE to get in the CU fields that are popping up there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmcdBnj4ZOg

 

[Paul Townsend]

Busting up US83 from North Platte to Valentine for a data stop and monitoring the cumulus field on the way. Leaving about 1845Z so will be to Valentine at about 21Z, and points further north into southern SD if the sky tells me so.

 

[Connor Keef]

I've decided I'm gonna sit here in Mission, SD for awhile.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Going to work my way a bit further north, closer to the low and front....looking at Jordan Junction, SD...most likely a data dead spot....but thats my target as of the latest data....ok road network as well...be watching the sky, looking at vis sat imagery, radar imagery as well as surf obs.....

 

[John Farley]

Got a couple nice shelf cloud pics and observed some gusty wind and small hail as the morning line came through Cannon Falls. Debated following it east into WI, but I think the better show will be later and farther west. Now I wonder, seeing that isolated cell that redeveloped after the line weakened in WI, but that is in lousy chase terrain and it is better in MN.

Besides, I am liking the low 80s temps, low 70s dewpoints, and partial clearing west of the Twin Cities. I think the outflow boundary from the morning convection has pushed the effective warm front back south a little near the Mississippi River and in WI, but farther west, it looks to be surging north again. I am now wondering if storms could form farther north, perhaps as far north as St. Cloud. I'll move west a little toward where I expect (or at least hope for!) redevelopment, and relocate to near Union Lake, where state route 19 intersects I-35. That way I can blast north on 35 to head up I-94 to the northwest if I have to, but also head west if initiation occurs farther west.

Kind of wishing I had followed the crowd to SD, as it looks quite good there to me, but we shall see. Probably too late now. Still think there's a fair chance of redevelopment on the warm front/outflow boundary, though, and if that happens, game on!

 

[Steve Polley]

Well Im biting somewhat and finally heading to Merriam, NE. Good road options and the cap to the south has pushed me NW of Thedford. With the backed surface winds in NE, hoping the moisture will advect this way. Also the Temp/Dew spreads were approaching 20+ near I 80 which had me concerned also.