Randall Cooper
EF2
Stayin put right here in Valentine and will probably grab some lunch around 11 or Noon. I really dont see any reason to move anywhere yet.
Connor Keef
EF0
I'm gonna head north on US83 from North Platte so I can play the storms in South Dakota as well as NW Nebraska.
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John Farley
Supporter
I have stayed out of this because it was already about 10 pages when I first saw it, and so I am in very late. Also, in real life I probably would not travel this far unless it was a multi-day scenario. But with those qualifiers, and the "It's OK to be late" message having been posted, here is my thinking. Probably the best area is east of the triple point somewhere in east-central SD. I think once the current line gets out of that area there will be good insolation and new, probably supercellular storms, will likely fire in the afternoon. Miller would be a good starting point. But that said, I must say that, since my best successes have been with warm fronts, I've been watching MN and WI as a "sleeper" area since first looking at this case. I have a hunch that something will happen somewhere besides the obvious place in SD. I'd say the stretch from southwest of the Twin Cities, maybe around Montgomery, MN over to around Eau Clare, WI might be the most likely place. The moisture and triggering mechanism are certainly there, storms are already firing in MN, and shear should be locally maximized along the WF. Any storm moving along the front will definitely have a chance for a tornado. So, since this is a fantasy chase and I don't really have to drive, I will jump in the game late and pick Cannon Falls, MN as my starting point. From there I can rush west to meet the storms if need be, or have a couple places to cross into WI if that looks like the better option. Only problem, some of this area is pretty poor chase terrain, though other parts, particularly in MN, aren't bad at all.
Dean Baron
Supporter
I'm joining the armada in North Platte, NE. About a 2 hour drive from Kearney, may also head north depending on where the bulge in the dry line ends up. If I'm seeing it right, anywhere from North Platte to the SD border would be good. I dont want to head in to SD, I have a feeling that isnt going to play out. Going over data to see if I need to move east but don't want get stuck in a place where I can't get across the river running along I80 (not sure what river that is).
Matt Gingery
WILL BE POSTING 15Z DATA AROUND 6 PM CDT
Dean Baron
Supporter
Nevermind my above post. Staying put in Kearney right now, will wait for more data before heading to North Platte. Looking at surface data again I see that surface winds REALLY suck across NE and SD. KS caught my eye for surface winds and moisture, although I'm sure the moisture will advect back in to NE and SD. One thing I'd like to see in the updates (not sure if it's possible) is to see the H85 temps. Surface winds in KS are much better but the H85 temps across that area are brutal. It'd be nice to see those temps cool down or the surface winds in NE to increase. For now, instead of heading to North Platte, continuing to sit tight in Kearney.
Bob Hartig
EF5
Getting 15Z data at 00Z is messing with my head. The time stamp tells me I've got a whole day ahead of me, but a glance out the window says it's already long over, and I can say sayonara to insolation. Plus, I just tried ordering bacon and eggs here in Thedford, and the waitress looked at me funny and said they stopped serving breakfast at 11:00 a.m., but I was welcome to see a dinner menu.
Matt Gingery
Brian Stertz
EF5
Better get a quick look at data....hopefully not a high LCL type High Plains day. May need to get north on the boundary and hopefully get a lowered LCL environ. up there.
This looks like a June set up so have to be wary of the old cap and gundge out. Surely the data update will enlighten me.
This looks like a June set up so have to be wary of the old cap and gundge out. Surely the data update will enlighten me.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
After a look at 12z data I am headed west on I-70 and then north on 85 to McCook, NE. This is my initial target area, however I am confident I will be making adjustments as the day progresses. I am going to play the dryline instead of the triple point.
Matt Gingery
**15Z UPDATE**
SATELLITE IMAGERY
MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/30a88yt.jpg
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY: http://i50.tinypic.com/n62gip.jpg
SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/23vj9k2.jpg
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/2mnoxvm.jpg
SURFACE DATA
NORTHERN PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/2h4c9jk.gif
MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/dyrwwj.gif
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY: http://i50.tinypic.com/1he22v.gif
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/2zyk491.gif
S. PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/ofyf7k.gif
RADAR
MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/148dlih.gif
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/98r01t.gif
GREAT LAKES: http://i50.tinypic.com/1xx5w7.gif
S. PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/727qlg.gif
WIND PROFILER: http://i45.tinypic.com/fz0kdi.gif
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETINS
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1020 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF LA
CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 35 MILES EAST OF OSHKOSH WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE .
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. CAP IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH
HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL WI WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL WI HAVE BEEN SHOWING STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEARING 8C/KM INDICATING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MINNESOTA AND W WISCONSIN AS CLEARING BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE HELPS TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER.
WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60451
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Crawling slowly east toward GRI/HSI. I've got US-30, I-80 and US-6 to choose from. North of 30, road-wise all bets are off. To all y'all chasing in Wiskey, hope you brought your chain saw.
Scott Weberpal
EF5
Surface data for the western Dakotas please!
Scott Weberpal
EF5
Crawling slowly east toward GRI/HSI. I've got US-30, I-80 and US-6 to choose from. North of 30, road-wise all bets are off. To all y'all chasing in Wiskey, hope you brought your chain saw.
The trees aren't that bad until you're further north.
Danny Neal
EF5
I hate you all!!! Thedford was my original target when we first started posting and only AFTER I sit there for a day all by myself, you all decide to flock there when I leave... Do I smell?
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