CHASE CASE 1

My gut feeling tells me to stay put within the Valentine, Thedford, North Platte corridor. Seeing the outlook the yahoo in me realizes its only about 10 hours to reach the middle of the moderate risk area. I could be there by 4 pm if I wanted to push it, but I like to hold steady at my current post and see what sfc obs and/or mesoscale features may tell me. For an originial target I am just to the left of the "S" in slight in NE. Not bad to knock the rust off in the offseason and still be within a target area. So as of 11-12z I am grabbing breakfast in Thedford, NE.
 
Danny Neal said:
Not bad to knock the rust off in the offseason and still be within a target area. So as of 11-12z I am grabbing breakfast in Thedford, NE.
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I can't find anything to fault with Danny's target, I'm heading to Holdredge to steal some internet. SD/ND is too far for me, and I'd rather not try to find a tornado that close to the low, strange storm motions and all.
 
Based on the updated information, I'm tempted to drive up to North Platte for the night, but still going to sit tight at home north of Denver. Planning on being up early for breakfast and ready to head out the door once the 12z data comes out the next morning.
 
Based on the new information given with the 700mb chart, I think I will take a short jog north from WaKenney, KS to Lexington, NE and unpack for the night at the "Green Valley Motel".

BTW, I know in previous chase cases we have had maps with everyone's locations. Think we can put that together again?
 
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Ryan Wichman said:
Based on the new information given with the 700mb chart, I would think I will take a short jog north from WaKenney, KS to Lexington, NE and unpack for the night at the "Green Valley Motel".

BTW, I know in previous chase cases we have had maps with everyone's locations. Think we can put that together again?
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If Matt doesn't want to do it, I maybe able to toy and put something together on google maps or something.
 
I'm going to go ahead and get a room at the Holiday Inn Express in Colby. I'm not too amped about the Moderate Risk, I'm feeling better about Western KS through Central NE and think that right here on the southern end of things might be the place to camp for now. Looking forward to seeing the next set of data.
 
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Jason Boggs said:
You're supposed to do that on your own. Being a met student it seems lime you might be able to figure out a possible area to chase...but maybe not. I agree that it's not a whole lot of info, but lets just have fun with it.
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I understand this is for fun, but neither I nor anyone else I have ever chased with has ever made a chasing forecast based solely on current obs from 12Z the day before.

Given "the setup" as it is, I would say anywhere from the front Range of the Rockies to the Great Lakes from Texas to Minnesota is my target.
 
Well, apparently the mid-day-before data and models (as reflected in the SPC outlook) are suggesting the shortwave is rotating a bit northeast, and it will take higher terrain to break the rather strong cap. So I've left Amarillo after lunch and traveled to Burlington, CO, to overnight for the target day. Plenty of time to reconsider tomorrow morning, because the situation isn't good enough to get sucked way up into ND from what I can see.
 
Jeff Duda said:
I understand this is for fun, but neither I nor anyone else I have ever chased with has ever made a chasing forecast based solely on current obs from 12Z the day before.

Given "the setup" as it is, I would say anywhere from the front Range of the Rockies to the Great Lakes from Texas to Minnesota is my target.
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The UA charts were really the only piece I was wanting to post. Some stayed home, some could read into the UA charts, either way I am sure everyone will get in on this event and be successfull. Everyone has there own way of playing the game. Some requested SFC obs, etc. The only reason I began this vaguely was to get everyone to chime in to the case before I started. Now that the case has a few players I decided to post SPC for what its worth. You are exactly right on your target area. If you think the dryline is the play then do that, or the warm front, or the area of cyclogenisis. Try to be humble and wait for the money forecast that I should post this evening. These cases involve alot of effort and I am only trying to please everyone the best I can. If there is any other data that might help you pinpoint your target area feel free to let me know. The 0z data will be the beginning of the chase. Given the time of year, there is activity each day during this event. I didn't want to do a series of days. I wanted to focus on 1 day in a multi-day event, therefore I won't be posting radar and satellite at 0z so everyone can only focus on the chase day.

My theory is, Models are only good as the data put into them. My method is to help refine everyones ability to take the data as it comes and base their chase on real time data and adjust without the frustration of models changing every update. At 0z you will get all the 0z UA data etc.
 
I'm staying put in McCook, NE overnight but still plan on heading a little further N and possibly W tomorrow for a panhandle play if my hunch is correct. If not, I still have good road options to the S. Will await morning models and adjust from there.
 
Based on the initial data I would be targeting northwest KS, probably staying at Colby. It seems like there should be some digging of the upper low. This is my day-before lodging spot using just the observed upper air and surface data if I was already out in the Plains.

However, reality says I would be leaving from eastern WI at around 5 am, so I would take US-151 to I-80 and head west to North Platte, NE.
 
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