Matt Gingery
06Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
KEEP IN MIND, EVERYONE IS PROBABLY VIRTUALLY SLEEPING OR VERY DRUNK AS THIS DATA COMES OUT. . .
TEXT ONLY:
SPC
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
VALID 1:00 AM CDT
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN NEB/CENTRL KS/WRN OK AND THE TX PNHNDL TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM AMA HLC BUB YKN SUX OMA FNB END FSI 40 SSW ADM FTW ABI PVW
AMA.
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GCK 15 NNW HLC BBW 45 ESE ANW ABR AXN
EAU VOK UIN JEF SGF 10 NNE PGO TXK TYR ACT BWD LBB 15 W AMA GCK.
...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG MID/UPPER JET CURRENTLY DIGGING ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST IS PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. MODELS ALL INDICATE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
EASTWARD WITHIN STRONG SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT
WAVE IN NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
THE MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY.
DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. EAST OF LEE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE FORMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...30 TO 50 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO VICINITY OF EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MID DAY
...FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
STORMS.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SURFACE HEATING APPEARS LIKELY ALONG LEE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
AND ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECT CLUSTER
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TROUGH/DRY LINE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS
MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH DISTINCT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT
WAVES. ONE CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOCUS...THE DRY
LINE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT
...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED NEAR NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
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