CHASE CASE 1

[Jeff Duda]

I like what I'm seeing in SW Jackson Co., SD. Seeing as I'm in Murdo I think I'll mosey on to the SW and latch on to that cell.

 

[Matt Gingery]

TORNADO WARNING

TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA AT 23Z.

2 TORNADOES ON GROUND FROM 503 PM THROUGH 506 PM JUST NORTHWEST OF WANBLEE. FUNNELS FIRST REPORTED AT 450 PM MDT SOUTHEAST OF POTATO CREEK. (UNR)

TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES WEST OF WANBLEE SD.

TORNADO WARNING

TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FALL RIVER COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA AT 23Z.
400 FOOT WIDE TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN AND CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO FARM MACHINERY. (UNR)
TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND 3 MILES EAST OF ORAL, SD

TORNADOES ALSO REPORTED ON THE GROUND IN CAMPBELL COUNTY WYOMING. . .

 

[Jeff Duda]

TORNADO WARNING

TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA AT 23Z.

2 TORNADOES ON GROUND FROM 503 PM THROUGH 506 PM JUST NORTHWEST OF WANBLEE. FUNNELS FIRST REPORTED AT 450 PM MDT SOUTHEAST OF POTATO CREEK. (UNR)

TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES WEST OF WANBLEE SD.

Bingo. Nailed it.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'm feeling a bust for me....

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Sitting in Martin, SD. Waiting for the Jackson, Co. storm to come to me

EDIT: misplaced the town. I will be heading North a bit more on 73 to intercept.

 

[John Farley]

I am right there! Isolated cell south of Twin Cities popped up almost over my head as I sat on the shores of Union Lake! I am watching a nice, backlit wall cloud about 10 miles south of there now, with weak rotation - now it just needs to tighten up and produce!

EDIT - Looks like quite a complex in MO, with some intense, semi-isolated cells in the north-central part of the state, only 100 miles or so from my house. Should I have stayed closer to home?

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Looks like it'll move just south of Kadoka, maybe toward Kyle or Wanblee

TORNADO WARNING

TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA AT 23Z.

2 TORNADOES ON GROUND FROM 503 PM THROUGH 506 PM JUST NORTHWEST OF WANBLEE. FUNNELS FIRST REPORTED AT 450 PM MDT SOUTHEAST OF POTATO CREEK. (UNR)

TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES WEST OF WANBLEE SD.

I'm watching a gorgeous barber pole supercell with a snaky rope tornado beneath it!

 

[Verne Carlson]

Ha! I guessed the wrong day but since I was on my way to Kyle, SD from the east I would have driven right through Wanblee. Same area different tornado.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am heading northwest on 20 from Valentine, NE to Martin, SD. I will be picking up the pace to ensure I don't get too far behind. I feel a little out of place for some reason. Its easier to catch a storm to your south than it is trying to approach one to the north (when they are moving northeast). I really like the expanding cu field in southern SD. There isn't much in the way of cu development in NE attm. I am optimistic having seen the latest profiler data and seeing the stronger mid-level flow now advancing into the northern Plains. I expect a couple of dominant supercells to get going before too long. Delorme says its 80 miles to Martin, SD. I should be there in just over an hour or 22z.

Since the next update is at 23z I will give myself about a 45 minute cushion to be in position from Martin, SD considering I am in a data hole for 2 hours.

Since I arrived in Martin, SD around 22z I would assume I would be in great position to catch the tornadic supercell just to my north. Since I cannot simulate real-time chase strategy I will assume I have a great chance to see a tornado with this storm. I really wanted to play the dryline buldge in NE, however temperature dewpoint spreads were a little large and 850mb capping appeared to be too large to overcome. Reluctantly I decided to slowly work my way north throughout the day and finally ended up in South Dakota.

As any experienced chaser will tell you, its one thing making decisions from your couch and another when on the road. I wonder if I would have done the same thing if I had actually chased this day.

 

[jaredleighton]

Am liking my position in Murdo. Hopefully I jumped on that leading cell early and was able to watch its evolution from its beginning.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Resisting the urge to run toward Wanblee, SD cell...I like the area I am in parameter wise and will wait for the storms to move my way into some decent instability and see what transpires....currently sitting in White River, SD in Mellette County.....was able to make it back home for the live chase....hope it pays off

 

[MatthewCarman]

I am moving to try and intercept the storms to my west. Not sure if I will make it in time to see a tornado.

 

[Steve Polley]

Just a little further south than I should have been, Im now cutting across on these horrible county roads over to HWY 73 and head north to nearCedar Butte and Belvidere, SD Hope I havent missed the show with this cell already.

 

[Matt Gingery]

0Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i48.tinypic.com/2cf5g7c.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/2uqn3pj.jpg

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/230kma.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/ab74mw.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/fcvcbq.gif

S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/1yvfwg.gif

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/259ede1.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/5pljbb.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

DAKOTAS: http://i50.tinypic.com/33xj0nr.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF

MULTIPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF
DEEP CONVECTION FROM WRN SD INTO SCNTRL ND. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE BUOYANT...SBCAPES OF 3000-4000J/KG...AND
STRONGLY SHEARED...FAVORING CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSING DEEPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN PROXIMITY TO SW-NE CONVECTIVE
ORIENTATION. WITH TIME SUFFICIENT COLD POOL GENERATION WILL FORCE
EXPANDING MCS EWD WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER INTO BACK SIDE OF
MCS.

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/2r5z0wy.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL WI AND SWRN U.P OF MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH


THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS HGH
LCL/S WERE PRESENT AND LINEAR MODE WAS BECOMING DOMINANT OVER
SCENTRAL/SERN MN. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME
LINEAR...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS
AREA THROUGH WW EXPIRATION TIME /02Z/.

FARTHER EAST OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI AND FAR SWRN U.P OF MI...MORE
ISOLATED STORMS...LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER
THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THEIR REMAINS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER MUCH OF WW
HOWEVER...SEVERAL RECENT STORM MERGERS OVER WCENTRAL WI AND A 30-35
KT UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL SPEED PER THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MODE
WITH A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT AFTER 02Z.

 

[John Farley]

I'm south of Owatanna now, working from exit to exit down I-35 ahead of the storms. As SPC says, they are starting to line out, but have not completely done so yet, and I am still hoping for some magic from an embedded meso. The high LCL won't help, though.

At least I saw some decent storm structure, nice wall cloud near Union Lake when the storms initiated, and got a couple decent shelf cloud shots later.