CHASE CASE 1

[John Farley]

Still sitting in Union Lake, MN. I have set a personal record for being near the center of a red box at the time of issuance! That should make me happy, but I am nervous at how far NE the storms have fired in WI. My initial thinking was that they were elevated, being apparently well northeast of the outflow boundary, but I do see one very warm temp northeast of that lone cell up there in west-central WI - and now one storm has gone TOR-warned up there! So maybe the WF has gotten farther north than I expected after the earlier round of convection. But that is lousy chase terrain up there and I probably can't catch those storms moving away from me anyway, so I will stay where I am and hope against hope that I don't have to go through the Twin Cities at rush hour to get to a storm. After all, I am near the center of the red box. Hoping storms will fire around St. Cloud and build or move SE along the OFB.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Fueled up the rocket car and heading towards Winner, SD. I won't be able to play tonight either, so I'll be hanging out there.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

but I do see one very warm temp northeast of that lone cell up there in west-central WI - and now one storm has gone TOR-warned up there! So maybe the WF has gotten farther north than I expected after the earlier round of convection. But that is lousy chase terrain up there...

Hate to burst your bubble, but the area around Almena, WI in the vicinity of the tornado warning has fairly flat terrain with a lot of farmland and relatively few trees I shouldn't let the cat out of the hat, but much of Wisconsin isn't all that bad for chasing...or at least not as bad as most make it sound.

Here's a screen capture from Google Street View of the area:

 

[Dean Baron]

Yea that parts of Wisconsin in that tornado watch are really not all that bad of terrain.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am heading northwest on 20 from Valentine, NE to Martin, SD. I will be picking up the pace to ensure I don't get too far behind. I feel a little out of place for some reason. Its easier to catch a storm to your south than it is trying to approach one to the north (when they are moving northeast). I really like the expanding cu field in southern SD. There isn't much in the way of cu development in NE attm. I am optimistic having seen the latest profiler data and seeing the stronger mid-level flow now advancing into the northern Plains. I expect a couple of dominant supercells to get going before too long. Delorme says its 80 miles to Martin, SD. I should be there in just over an hour or 22z.

Since the next update is at 23z I will give myself about a 45 minute cushion to be in position from Martin, SD considering I am in a data hole for 2 hours.

 

[Steve Polley]

Looks like im finally headed to SD. I will move NW to Allen, SD and lay my cards down there. Will be watching radar and looking at the beautiful cell developing to my west.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Heading up Highway 83 from Valentiene towards Murdo.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Northbound and down and still on track from my target town (revised) of Martin SD. Can see some nice cb's growing in the nice supercell environment up that way. Hope I am not too late and out of position for tornado time !! Still in Nebraska &@#% !!

 

[Paul Townsend]

Saw the towers to my northwest on my way up to Valentine, so at Valentine I am heading west on US20 to Merriman and then north on NE61/SD73 to US18 at Martin, SD. I will say I am about 5 minutes behind you, Greg.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Saw the towers to my northwest on my way up to Valentine, so at Valentine I am heading west on US20 to Merriman and then north on NE61/SD73 to US18 at Martin, SD. I will say I am about 5 minutes behind you, Greg.

I'm in the black Toyota 4Runner with the Oklahoma license plate ICTRN8O.

 

[Matt Gingery]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL


ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 01Z. ANTICIPATED
ISOLATED NATURE OF SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF MDT/TOWERING CU ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM SW OF MAF TO SOUTH OF LBB. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE
AREA SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINS DESPITE THE LACK OF
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...BACKED SELY WINDS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WAS ENHANCING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THIS REGION. THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH 01Z.
FARTHER NORTH OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE IT IS UNCLEAR IF STORM
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE.
FARTHER SOUTH...AND ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER PECOS COUNTY SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD INTO TERRELL COUNTY THROUGH 01Z. RELATIVELY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION FROM LASTING
WELL AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WHERE STRONGER
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A
LONGER LIVED ALBEIT SPATIALLY SMALL SVR THREAT.

 

[Matt Gingery]

23Z UPDATE​

SURFACE PLOTS

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/351fjiq.gif

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/zy9i1d.gif

MISS VALLEY: http://i48.tinypic.com/309rgqw.gif

S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/trnc.gif

N PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/2589pxg.gif

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i48.tinypic.com/rho2tu.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/2prsbq0.jpg

MISS VALLEY: http://i45.tinypic.com/ipmxw3.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/2btoac.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/6rnk49.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/2ev4z1u.gif

N PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/14kiow7.gif

S PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/2vmspza.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/11182l3.gif

SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS​

TORNADO WATCH: http://i45.tinypic.com/2me7hbn.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 505 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
REDIG SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO
WW AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS EXIT REGION OF AMPLIFIED WRN WY
VORT CONTINUES NEWD. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
STORM ROTATION...YIELDING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND.

TORNADO WATCH: http://i50.tinypic.com/2zqa714.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF RHINELANDER
WISCONSIN TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG WARM
ADVECTION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. AN ADDITIONAL
STORM OR TWO MAY FORM INVOF RETREATING MCS OUTFLOW BNDRY IN WRN WI.
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES INVOF BOUNDARIES AND MID 60S
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND.

TORNADO WATCH: http://i50.tinypic.com/bi5mvp.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST MONTANA
NORTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 525 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GLENDIVE
MONTANA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF BROADUS MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN EXIT
REGION OF STRONG JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH WRN WY UPR VORT.
STRONGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CREATE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL.

WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60451

 

[Paul Townsend]

I'm in the black Toyota 4Runner with the Oklahoma license plate ICTRN8O.

I'm in the black Ford Escape with generic Wisconsin license number.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Had a feeling that area back in MN was going to do something. The way it is, I will drift north to Martin, SD for now. See if I can grab one of these developing cells. Hopefully they can stay a bit discrete and now form into a big mess quickly.

 

[Dean Baron]

Hmm, looking at vis sat I'll head west to Ainsworth, NE as it looks like we have some TCu starting to form over the sandhills. SD stuff is way too far but I think I have a shot at catching a storm over north central NE. Too bad I wont be able to buy a road in Cherry county, but seeing as how this is a sim I'll imagine any tornado that forms follows a paved road.