CHASE CASE #2

[Dean Baron]

Would it be possible to get surface plots for earlier in the day? I want to see if the cold front is moving south or if it is possible it may retreat back north as a warm front. I think I may head for Wichita as well since I dont see any reason to be as far north as I am. Originally thought there might be a chance the cold front would surge north as a warm front hence why I wanted to keep a northern target within reach but now I don't think that'll happen. Earlier surface data will tell me if that front is in fact moving south in which case the dryline will be the best play for tomorrow.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Not much of an upper level trough but a nice nose of Tds into s KS. I'll stay put in Golden, CO and be ready to leave early in the morning to a better defined target.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

As of now, I'm planning on leaving Norman around 10 AM- 11 AM for the Amarillo area. As others have noted, it looks like a potentially classic retreating dryline setup over the panhandle. If i move at all, it may be a bit further south and east to account for a possible tail end Charlie, but it obviously is not close enough yet to have a good enough idea about what will occur. Will post again when the latest set of obs, etc. comes in. (Thanks Matt )

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Off to Wichita tonight, and probably further west tomorrow.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm leaving Denver and making the 6 hour drive to Guymon, OK where I'll set up shop for the night.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Set me down in Woodward, OK, please.

 

[jaredleighton]

Gonna probably hang loose at home in Lawrence, KS. The deep moisture is still in SC Texas, so I doubt I'll have to go north. Based on where the moisture is and where the fronts are, it looks like it may be a Texhoma event. If so, will cruise on down the day of the event. But for now am stayin' put.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Would it be possible to get surface plots for earlier in the day? I want to see if the cold front is moving south or if it is possible it may retreat back north as a warm front. I think I may head for Wichita as well since I dont see any reason to be as far north as I am. Originally thought there might be a chance the cold front would surge north as a warm front hence why I wanted to keep a northern target within reach but now I don't think that'll happen. Earlier surface data will tell me if that front is in fact moving south in which case the dryline will be the best play for tomorrow.

HERE IS 18Z SYNOPTIC PRIOR TO THE 0Z DATA FOR THE THREAD IF IT HELPS ANY. . .THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT IN THE 0Z DATA

http://i46.tinypic.com/bf1dw3.gif

 

[Dean Baron]

Thanks for the synoptic Matt! (and for putting another chase case together too!). Based on that and taking a closer look at the 0z data I think I will continue past Wichita and stay the night in Blackwell, OK. Wake up early in the morning to go over data. I'm thinking about heading further southwest but will wait to see the morning data before making that call.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I will spend the night in Clinton, OK which should keep all of my options open for tomorrow's chase.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

We will head down to Wichita, KS expecting to be within 6 hours of a target tomorrow.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'm staying at home in Amarillo.

 

[Shane Adams]

Vernon, TX.

Will drift westward with the dryline through the day. Expect storm motions ENE around 35mph, so will err to the south of my target region to keep on the inflow side of any storm that forms north of me so I can see while running it down. Anything that goes south will likely be closer, giving me more time to take the "long way" towards the magic spot.

But I always suck at these virtual data sets, so it'll be interesting to watch that trend continue.

 

[Scott Olson]

I will start in Enid, Oklahoma.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am going to stay in Tulsa for the night and head out in the morning. Without model data I want to see how things evolve overnight before I start thinking about a target.

There are a few things which really stand out. I am noticing good moisture poised to surge north out of Texas. Also with the moisture advection will also likely be the advection of a stout eml as 700mb and 850mb temps are very warm across south Texas into Mexico. I would think there will be a rather sharp cutoff to the southward extent of thunderstorm development across the southern Plains. I am also keeping an eye on the cold front over the central Plains which appears to be losing steam as winds behind the front are already veering back to a more southerly direction. I will be keeping an eye on the weak shortwave which should eject into the southern Plains tomorrow as it phases with a rather strong subtropical jet. It definately appears to be a dryline event, but the question is.....where?