Chase Case #3 (2010 version)

[JeffGonzales]

Not liking where im at now, so headed back northward and should arrive in Kansas City, MO by 21z. Will check update on the way and go from there. Liking more of a northern play, if I bust at least im halfway home

 

[Dan Melby]

Left Rogers a few hours ago and just arrived in Nevada, MO. Good road options from here. Starting to like what I see developing to my West.

 

[James Gustina]

I'm already behind. Gonna sit in Shrevport, Louisiana and pray that the CU field begins to pop around me soon.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm going to backpedal to US 65 and then head north toward Columbia, MO, following the projected deep moisture axis toward the warm front. This might be a dumb move, as storms are starting to fire in eastern Kansas and I may need to reverse course. But I don't like the veering winds over there, I trust the low to progress to the NNE, and there's a lot to be said for enhanced helicity.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

I have no real idea of where to go-but even though I have a hunch I am in the wrong area--I have just as much a hunch I am sitting where its going to happen.....? So staying in Jackson, Tn

 

[Chad Moore]

Don't like the surface winds this far south- not enough backing. Need to keep closer to the low, so deviating at 1800Z to the NNE. Heading from Southern Arkansas through Pine Bluff, AR intending to take I-55 toward St. Louis. I seem to be a couple hours behind so my best chance it to intercept in the late afternoon in either SE MO or S Illinois. This is a fast moving system,so I expect the best helicity and upper wind support to translate ENE fairly quickly. Maybe I can catch a tail ender before nightfall.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Heading from Memphis to Jonesboro, AR.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

After having an argument with Risley about the proper usage of the word "atramentaceous", I'm heading northeast out of Forrest City and intercepting the cells around Fair Oaks, AR. The chase is on.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Not at all interested in current play in Arkansas, for better or worse. Sticking with the northern play for whatever reason. I always do it when chasing in reality, so we'll see how it plays out. I just feel more comfortable as close to the low as I can get. Initially I'm not overly pleased with what I'm seeing at 18z, but I always know I've seen this look before only to have things rapidly change. Like what I'm seeing in the low level clouds over southern and central Missouri and banking on things to clear out and become more convective toward afternoon ahead of the dry punch.

Going to be bold and head way north back to my night before location of Columbia, MO, where I may even consider heading further north toward Kirksville, MO shortly after.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I'm staying with this cell just to the SE of Little Rock for now. I'm liking the backed winds out of Stuttgart. Looks pretty good, but I don't want to have to worry about crossing the Arkansas river a lot. Unfortunately not many road options in this part of the state. I'm watching the cells in the southern part of Arkansas. If they intensify then i'm jetting south to hopefully catch them south of Pine Bluff. But for now, I'm following this cell west of England, AR till the next update.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Have a feeling I am to far south and west to bag anything worthwhile. System moved faster than I expected as I underestimated the upper level pattern. Looks like I will have to call it a day early. Will go down to survey the Leary damage and make the long trek home.

Chip

 

[Brandon Copic]

going to chase a cell that is near England, Arkansas, leaving Stuttgart now

 

[Bob Hartig]

...I may even consider heading further north toward Kirksville, MO shortly after.

I'm thinking of that too. I'll see how things look once I've reached Columbia. Right now the clouds around Kirksville are a concern, but with a little luck they'll clear out enough to allow insolation to work its mojo. The low is pulling northeast and the WF is up that-away already, along with with the best backing winds. With the surface Tds already approaching 60, I think moisture isn't going to be a problem.

The 18Z surface map suggests speed convergence north of Columbia. I'm curious to see whether it fires things up somewhere between Columbia and Kirksville (or just dies down--who knows?).

So for me too, my immediate target is Columbia, but my gut tells me I'm going to keep heading north past there to Kirksville. Right now the plan is to just keep jetting up US 65 till I hit I-70, then head east to Columbia, and then, we'll see.

 

[Colin Davis]

I have had my fun with the Arkansas stuff, and probably would have been on a bonafide sup for a while there during the morning, but they're going into ridiculous terrain and an awful road network, and I, too, am liking toward the north.

Speaking of ridiculous terrain and an awful road network, see ya in Rolla! (figure that's probably reasonable/realistic time-wise)

 

[Wes Carter]

I'm going to take a short drive up I-24 to Clarksville, TN to get closer to the better shear.