Chase Case #4 (2010 Version)

[Bob Hartig]

Good grief. Do I know how to call 'em or what? Everybody else in Nebraska does the obvious and heads into Kansas; I, preferring a red herring to a bird in the hand, head back toward Omaha. Klong, klong, klooonnngggg!!! <Smacking head with anvil.>

Don't try this kind of maneuver on your own, kiddies. It should only be attempted by a highly trained idiot. Damn--just look at that bloody radar. I guess I could fudge and say that, after further scans on GR3, I changed my course and belted back toward Kansas, and in real life I hope I'd have headed there to begin with. But in this case, I was too smart for my own good. So go ahead and enjoy your steaks; as for me, waitress, I'll have the crow, thank you.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Probably would've scored the tornado near Independance, KS. And also the earlier on in Osage county. Thanks for this Jesse!

 

[Jeff Duda]

I still don't know what day this was, but I'm guessing it was from either 2003 or 2004.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I still don't know what day this was, but I'm guessing it was from either 2003 or 2004.

The date was April 06, 2006. Here's the SPC outlook for the day.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Never saw anything in 2006, and hardly chased. Sorta wished I had, because I nailed this. Thanks, Jesse!

I take that back, I did chase this day (smacks forehead). It was so epic that I never bothered to write it up. I was on the north side of the storms near Beatrice, never saw a thing. Got rained on, tht was it.

 

[Danny Neal]

Just catching up. At the update before 18z I was already going down to Nebraska City. Once 18-20z rolled around and storms started popping to the southwest I probably would have made it to northern KS and probably been on that storm. Unknown if I would have saw anything as a multitude of things could have gone wrong. However I am fairly confident I would have been in the thick of things. Excellent job, Jesse.

 

[Josh VandenTop]

I'm relatively certain I made it south in time to catch one of the tornadoes in Washington county!! First success on a chase case!! lol. Thanks a ton to Danny and Jesse for puting this together it's really appreciated.

 

[cstrunk]

I'd like to think that I did pretty well. I was headed towards Marysville, KS from Lincoln, NE and would have intercepted the northern KS supercell. I hope I could have seen the reports northwest of Marysville or later on in Gage county, NE as I tracked it north. Hopefully I could keep up.

Either way, I think I did pretty good. If I learned anything from this chase case (which I know I did), it would have been to try positioning closer to the point of initiation (but not getting behind). Initiation is probably one of the harder (hardest?) things to forecast for a chase. When driving all of the way from Texas (as I will be for future chases). I should also look closer at the more southern targets along the dryline. Being from Iowa, I'm more used to focusing on the triple point / surface low / warm front, because those features were usually closer to home. Now that I'm down south, the dryline will be the closest feature in most cases. They tend to have more chaser friendly storms associated with them as well. Lots to think about!

Thanks a lot Jesse!

 

[Skip Talbot]

Looks like that Jewell Co. KS storm up and vanished between 21-22z from what I can make of these radar images. I probably would have had to make a run for the line to my southwest, but coming in from behind I'm not sure how that intercept would have panned out. Nice job, Rizz. I expected a little better moisture advection further north toward the triple point and the dewpoints to mix out more further south, and even with what looked like a 20 degree T/Td spread ahead of the dryline in KS, it appears there was strong moisture convergence right on the dryline that probably brought that spread down a bit. Nice job, Jesse.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Looks like I did decent on this one. Nice case.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'll call it a bust for me. That'll teach me to follow Bob Hartig . In RL I would likely have seen the KS developments in the 18Z-21Z period and reached about Nebraska City, NE, at 21Z and Seneca, KS, around 22Z. A little late to the party, the Gage County, NE, storm would have been my possible intercept. Thanks for the case, Jesse!

 

[Verne Carlson]

H. got some great shots of the Hanover, KS tornado - full report here

I didn't chase this day. Boss wouldn't let me leave that morning. I remember it well as Doug Kiesling did a chapter for the Storms of 2006 that I produced. 2006 was a year that shut down early in May and didn't come back to life until August and Sept.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Thanks to everyone who participated! We're going to start a new case this evening, which will offer a unique set of parameters.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Heading north out of Newton based on my last update I would have been on those storms, very possible I could have bagged one of the tubes today.

Why isn't it this easy in real life? I think I am only going to forecast off the thing that get listed in these cases, everything else is just a deterrent.

 

[Dean Baron]

Ooo, looks like turning around and heading back to Junction City was a good idea after all and Salina was a good target. Only mistake would have been heading towards Witchita around 18z, but in RL likely would have seen initiation to the north and turned and gotten on the storms in time. Thanks Jesse! These are always good to keep the forecast skills in tact.