Chase Case #3 (2010 version)

I am leaving Hot Springs and will drive up to Little Rock, AR for the time being. I am hoping the convection moving through clears out and we can see some destabilization take place. I am counting on a second round of convection developing which will be the main show. I hope this line of storms moving through doesn't end up being the main show later in the day in Tennessee and Mississippi.
 
After looking at the UA maps at 12z for the morning of I thought that 850mb looked quite familiar to me and turns out I was right. I guess thats what happens when my visual memory remembers certain maps from looking at past setups. So I am out of this case now that I know the date lol good luck to everyone!
 
Sitting tight in my initial target of Joplin, MO....like Ryan, I am waiting for the activity to clear and the atmosphere to destabilize...keeping a close eye on the mid level feature in west/central KS along with the position of the warm front.....
 
I've been busy the last couple of days, bear with me.... I am currently compiling it will have it posted in 30 mins.
 
18z Update

MD(s)

0203 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...WRN MO...EXTREME SERN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
0330 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW/N-CENTRAL OK AND S-CENTRAL/SWRN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY


Watches

950 AM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY

PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI


EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
230 PM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA
PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA


EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
Surface

AUS
EVV
ICT

Soundings

BNA - Nashville
DVN
ILX
LZK
SGF
SHV

Radar

AUS
EVV
ICT
JAN

Satellite

AUS
EVV
ICT
NATIONAL

Storm Reports from 12z to 20z


1255 - EF-0 tornado touched down near Vanzant, MO
1312 - EF-2 tornado injured one person near Leary, TX
1315 - EF-0 tornado occurred near Siloam Springs, MO

*Numerous wind reports from 12z to 15z across S. MO, AR, NE TX from the now decaying squall line from the night before.

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE FOR 21z
 
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Going to stay put in Marvell, AR, waiting for the cells along the broken line across C AR to come my way. Will be ready to jump on one of them as soon as they get near me.
 
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