Andrea Griffa
EF5
Today I'll start from Kansas City, Mo hoping in a increase of the dews by noon.
Chase Case #2 (2010 version)
- Thread starter Danny Neal
- Start date
Brandon Jenkins
EF3
I'll head on up to Salina, KS. Good East and West road options once a target becomes clear. At this time, nothing looks worth the drive from home and convergence will NOT be an issue 
Kevin Crawmer
EF2
Wow, no clue. I guess I will head back east into Lie-owa and have some brunch in Des Moines.
Wes Carter
EF5
This is one that baffles me. I see no moisture return anywhere. There are some pockets with decent dews, but if this is the morning and there is daytime heating still to happen then I have a feeling these are going to mix out to pretty wide dewpoint depressions later.
The developing low is intriguing, but without moisture return and as of now a lack of good turning of winds with height from what I can tell, I'm going to hedge my bets and not spend a lot of gas and play this one closer to home. I see that SE of the developing low there is some divergence and decent dew spreads. Since the Southeast generally always has decent moisture I'm going to make the 3 1/2 trek to Sikeston, MO and take another peek at what's going on. I have a feeling I might just be sightseeing today.
Edit: I'm a newb at this, but I just had a thought. I feel better about this now. As the low develops, it might create it's own moisture return and I might be in it.
The developing low is intriguing, but without moisture return and as of now a lack of good turning of winds with height from what I can tell, I'm going to hedge my bets and not spend a lot of gas and play this one closer to home. I see that SE of the developing low there is some divergence and decent dew spreads. Since the Southeast generally always has decent moisture I'm going to make the 3 1/2 trek to Sikeston, MO and take another peek at what's going on. I have a feeling I might just be sightseeing today.
Edit: I'm a newb at this, but I just had a thought. I feel better about this now. As the low develops, it might create it's own moisture return and I might be in it.
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Bob Hartig
EF5
Okay, I'm taking a second look at this thing. Man, what a bear! If this were real life, not a chase case where I knew in advance that somewhere today tornadoes would be dropping, I wouldn't have given this setup a second glance. But since I know, it's bugging the crap out of me.
Anyway, what do I see? Well, to this non-met, the glaringly obvious features are the 850 and 700 mb lows and the 500 mb trough all centered in Nebraska. Where the heck did those guys come from? Not there yesterday; now this morning they're sitting there like bullseyes, grinning smugly. If I buy the wind barbs at those levels, the UA wind directions are flowing right through those features, utterly ignoring them. The dewpoints, on the other hand, seem to be wrapping around them. The 700 mb moisture is roughly congruent with the line that's passing through WI/eastern IA/northeast MO. But a lobe of 850 dewpoints is making its way out of Kansas into northwest MO, suggesting deeper moisture advecting from the WSW. That in turn suggests that the winds at that level are in fact acting the way you'd expect them to with a fairly tight, closed low to the WNW.
My hunch is, the next round of UA maps may surprise us at how much the winds have shifted in response to the lows/trough. Also, while I don't understand the mechanisms involved, I find myself wondering if the 500 mb trough will close off and deepen into a cold core. That possibility is why I'm presently reluctant to head back east. Yes, I see the cold front depicted on the map, but will part of it wind up returning back into NE as a warm front?
But I'm sorely tempted to head toward Davenport. Steeper lapse rates lie in western IL/eastern IA, with the 300 mb jet max evidently headed for that area, and, progressing groundward, the winds backing the way you'd want them to. Hmmm...that 850 moisture lobe...I'll bet it advects nicely into Iowa, and those guys east of me will wind up eating steak and beer while I chomp on a Subway sandwich on the long drive home.
Aaaghh!!! It's 4.5 hours to Davenport from here; it's slightly less than that to Miller, NE. Maybe I should hedge my bet a bit and bump east to I-35 at the MO/IA border. But for now, rather than make any impulsive moves, my wisest choice is probably to just sit and wait for the next round of maps. The reason I chose Maryville in the first place is because it's tapping into the deeper moisture overall, has decent jet energy, and is near the line of surface convergence. So it's actually a pretty good spot to see what happens next. I could wind up happy as a clam sitting right where I am.
Anyway, what do I see? Well, to this non-met, the glaringly obvious features are the 850 and 700 mb lows and the 500 mb trough all centered in Nebraska. Where the heck did those guys come from? Not there yesterday; now this morning they're sitting there like bullseyes, grinning smugly. If I buy the wind barbs at those levels, the UA wind directions are flowing right through those features, utterly ignoring them. The dewpoints, on the other hand, seem to be wrapping around them. The 700 mb moisture is roughly congruent with the line that's passing through WI/eastern IA/northeast MO. But a lobe of 850 dewpoints is making its way out of Kansas into northwest MO, suggesting deeper moisture advecting from the WSW. That in turn suggests that the winds at that level are in fact acting the way you'd expect them to with a fairly tight, closed low to the WNW.
My hunch is, the next round of UA maps may surprise us at how much the winds have shifted in response to the lows/trough. Also, while I don't understand the mechanisms involved, I find myself wondering if the 500 mb trough will close off and deepen into a cold core. That possibility is why I'm presently reluctant to head back east. Yes, I see the cold front depicted on the map, but will part of it wind up returning back into NE as a warm front?
But I'm sorely tempted to head toward Davenport. Steeper lapse rates lie in western IL/eastern IA, with the 300 mb jet max evidently headed for that area, and, progressing groundward, the winds backing the way you'd want them to. Hmmm...that 850 moisture lobe...I'll bet it advects nicely into Iowa, and those guys east of me will wind up eating steak and beer while I chomp on a Subway sandwich on the long drive home.
Aaaghh!!! It's 4.5 hours to Davenport from here; it's slightly less than that to Miller, NE. Maybe I should hedge my bet a bit and bump east to I-35 at the MO/IA border. But for now, rather than make any impulsive moves, my wisest choice is probably to just sit and wait for the next round of maps. The reason I chose Maryville in the first place is because it's tapping into the deeper moisture overall, has decent jet energy, and is near the line of surface convergence. So it's actually a pretty good spot to see what happens next. I could wind up happy as a clam sitting right where I am.
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Scott Hammel
EF4
Wow, this one does look tough. I suppose I'll stick close to home and drift slightly S down to Castle Rock, CO. Likes look there is some upslope flow here in CO so I guess I'll keep my eye on the Palmer until something else sticks out to me. I look forward to the challenge!
Jesse Risley
Staff member
While I see a developing area of low pressure out on the Southern Plains, I'm concerned about the lack of moisture in that region at this time.
I like the area of higher 2-meter dewpoints that are concentrated across the Missouri River valley ahead of an approaching H3 jet core; there appears to be favorable destabilization set to occur across this region in the wake of the overnight convection that is exiting stage right towards the Upper Mississippi River valley.
I might be making a poor choice, but I think I'll take my chances in this region and keep an eye on the upper-level jet streak in relation to low-level surface features today, hoping that the approaching H3 jet core will induce at least copacetic jet-induced upward VV juxtaposed with favorable 1km wind fields and ample seasonal CAPE for some sort of a show later today.
I'm going to finish my breakfast here at the Cracker Barrel in Kansas City, MO and consider heading a few miles north to US 36, which gives me good road options in all directions, along with a chance to stop and harass my good friend Corey Sloan in Cameron, MO while awaiting later surface data and visible satellite imagery.
I like the area of higher 2-meter dewpoints that are concentrated across the Missouri River valley ahead of an approaching H3 jet core; there appears to be favorable destabilization set to occur across this region in the wake of the overnight convection that is exiting stage right towards the Upper Mississippi River valley.
I might be making a poor choice, but I think I'll take my chances in this region and keep an eye on the upper-level jet streak in relation to low-level surface features today, hoping that the approaching H3 jet core will induce at least copacetic jet-induced upward VV juxtaposed with favorable 1km wind fields and ample seasonal CAPE for some sort of a show later today.
I'm going to finish my breakfast here at the Cracker Barrel in Kansas City, MO and consider heading a few miles north to US 36, which gives me good road options in all directions, along with a chance to stop and harass my good friend Corey Sloan in Cameron, MO while awaiting later surface data and visible satellite imagery.
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Brian Stertz
EF5
I am going to hold up in Grand Island NE and watch the High Plains closely....even though better mid-level flow in MO Valley area. Seen these types of setups yield some nice High Plains beauties as moisture surge begins and they move southward into the deepening moisture tongue.
Corey Sloan
EF1
Awakened by Jesse Risley pounding on my door....tough set-up to say the least...Cameron, MO is my starting point and think a trip to the north and east may be in order.
Randall Cooper
EF2
I hate cold front days! But I'll bite since its my backyard anyways. Im gonna hang around in St. Joseph, MO til around 18z when new data comes out and than make a choice from there. Very challenging forecast.
Charles Kuster
EF4
Nice case Danny, this is a tough one!
Based on yesterday’s data, I was thinking that a northern plains set up was possible, so I spent the night in Valentine, Nebraska. However, that has changed based on the most recent 12Z data. Moisture return looks to be problematic with a front draped across the northern Gulf and a dew point of only 58 in Lake Charles, LA and 50 in Oklahoma City! As a result, I am going to shift my target to a location where 50 tds are acceptable and an upslope event might occur. I will head down to Ft. Morgan, CO and check data when I get there!
Based on yesterday’s data, I was thinking that a northern plains set up was possible, so I spent the night in Valentine, Nebraska. However, that has changed based on the most recent 12Z data. Moisture return looks to be problematic with a front draped across the northern Gulf and a dew point of only 58 in Lake Charles, LA and 50 in Oklahoma City! As a result, I am going to shift my target to a location where 50 tds are acceptable and an upslope event might occur. I will head down to Ft. Morgan, CO and check data when I get there!
Brandon Sullivan
EF5
Rapid City, SD to start off for me!
Chip Redmond
EF4
Ya'll a bunch of night owls! I wanted to jump on the next case quick-like but it seems that sleeping in after a Friday night puts me on the 5th page! From initial post I felt that SD would've been the money area as southerly flow provided more moisture on the backside of the high pressure over OK, but with the new obs, I would go more east and south. Right now, I will sit at St. Louis, MO.
Jet streak over ND/MN will strengthen a weak trough over the Great Lakes and provide a region of decent shear over central IL/IN but just don't wander to far east because it seems with the low over New England the atmosphere wouldn't of had enough time to recover with dp's still fairly low and now sign of a LLJ in the wake of an older cold front to help the recovery...
However, along and just ahead of the existing cold front pushing southeast in KS/NW MO/IA there is some return from the SW...
Ok, now I am just rambling. St. Louis, MO is where I am starting and we will see what goes from there.
Chip
Jet streak over ND/MN will strengthen a weak trough over the Great Lakes and provide a region of decent shear over central IL/IN but just don't wander to far east because it seems with the low over New England the atmosphere wouldn't of had enough time to recover with dp's still fairly low and now sign of a LLJ in the wake of an older cold front to help the recovery...
However, along and just ahead of the existing cold front pushing southeast in KS/NW MO/IA there is some return from the SW...
Ok, now I am just rambling. St. Louis, MO is where I am starting and we will see what goes from there.
Chip
David Wolfson
EF5
Definitely a northwest flow situation where the usual features will be veered by 90 degrees or so. Look for the low level moisture coming more from the west and surface winds from the southwest. The upper level speed max is pretty impressive and looking to cause height falls in the vicinity of southeast Iowa. Moisture is pretty skimpy but this looks to be early-season with plenty of mid-level instability. I'll start in Peoria, IL.
In RL I'd probably be hanging further south in eastern AR or some such to avoid many miles and two days' driving for what looks the day-before to be pretty marginal. Chase the moisture return in a few days....
In RL I'd probably be hanging further south in eastern AR or some such to avoid many miles and two days' driving for what looks the day-before to be pretty marginal. Chase the moisture return in a few days....
Brian Stertz
EF5
Looks like a June setup...so C. Nebraska is always a good jump off spot...especially given a probable LL moisture surge moving up in to the C. Plains. Hope the subtle cyclogenesis can get cranked up overnight and into the chase day.
