Josh VandenTop
EF2
Well, I'm gonna wait at home here in Rock Rapids, Ia til I can see some more data
Chase Case #2 (2010 version)
- Thread starter Danny Neal
- Start date
Danny Neal
EF5
I decided I was going to post only the 12z upper air and surface data the morning of the chase tonight.... give people enough time to really look over the data again. I will post the rest of the 12z data (satellite, radar, soundings, text) Sunday night.
12z DAY OF:
12z composite
12z UA
300
500
700
850
12z surface
Midwest (12z)
C. Plains (12z)
ICT (1243z)
EVV (1243z)
DEN (1243z)
MSP (1243z)
I feel I may have confused some people by posting the day before as being the day of. Reference the original post for the day before the day. This post will be for those of you who picked a target based on the "day 2". I will let everyone get caught up to this point. Nobody said forecasting weather was easy
12z DAY OF:
12z composite
12z UA
300
500
700
850
12z surface
Midwest (12z)
C. Plains (12z)
ICT (1243z)
EVV (1243z)
DEN (1243z)
MSP (1243z)
I feel I may have confused some people by posting the day before as being the day of. Reference the original post for the day before the day. This post will be for those of you who picked a target based on the "day 2". I will let everyone get caught up to this point. Nobody said forecasting weather was easy
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, I guess I'll drive back home after seeing that data LOL. Maybe I'll catch something on my way through all of that crapvection, if I could ever get ahead of it.
Bob Hartig
EF5
Ecch! Definitely a backyard chase--as in, if it was in my backyard, I'd chase it, but I sure wouldn't drive 1,000 miles from Michigan for it.
My first instinct was to head east to VA or MD and try to salvage the system out there. But that's washed out moisture-wise, and meanwhile, there's that big pool of 850 moisture out west that's advecting slowly E/SE. So I guess it's a northwest flow setup. Set me down in Yankton, SD, for starters, and let's see what happens from there.
EDIT: Oops, didn't see that second round of data. Guess I'll take a look at it and see where to go now that I'm in Yankton.
My first instinct was to head east to VA or MD and try to salvage the system out there. But that's washed out moisture-wise, and meanwhile, there's that big pool of 850 moisture out west that's advecting slowly E/SE. So I guess it's a northwest flow setup. Set me down in Yankton, SD, for starters, and let's see what happens from there.
EDIT: Oops, didn't see that second round of data. Guess I'll take a look at it and see where to go now that I'm in Yankton.
Last edited by a moderator:
Jared Orr
EF1
Just looked at updated morning of Day 1 data. Guess I wasn't expecting a resurgence of that cold front along with such a strengthening of the low. I'll start in Kansas City, Mo and keep watch on the crapvection.
Bob Hartig
EF5
You have got to be kidding. Okay, I'm making the 4-hour drive down to Maryville, MO, and hoping I have at least half an inkling about what I'm doing.
Andy Jackson
EF3
I gonna stay ahead of the cold front and head to ddc area.
Ryan Wichman
EF3
I am getting into this game a bit after the first and even second update but based on the second update I will choose to stay put in Quincy, IL for right now. I enjoy making food on my own stove and sleeping in.
This set-up is very confusing since nearly all of the flow is coming out of the north rather than the south, which we typically see. Given the moisture return occurring over top the ridge and the incoming wind fields I will choose to stay in an eastern Midwest/Great Lakes location for now.
We'll see how this plays out but I could end up with a lot of pie on my face. I had a feeling Danny would choose a really tough one this time around.
This set-up is very confusing since nearly all of the flow is coming out of the north rather than the south, which we typically see. Given the moisture return occurring over top the ridge and the incoming wind fields I will choose to stay in an eastern Midwest/Great Lakes location for now.
We'll see how this plays out but I could end up with a lot of pie on my face. I had a feeling Danny would choose a really tough one this time around.
Patrick Martin
EF4
Target from the day before is the same as the morning of, which is my house north of Denver in Thornton, CO. Northwest flow, tail end of a front poking into NE Colorado, and upslope flow with dews in the 50's. Yup, at 12z I'm sitting on my back deck with a steaming cup of coffee figuring there won't be any need to go anywhere until at least after lunch.
L.B. LaForce
EF2
Oh, lets head back to Galesburg, IL.
Marcus Diaz
EF5
Well after looking at the morning's data, I'm still not impressed. I'm heading to Dodge City, KS for now and playing close to the front and developing low. I'm heading that way early (9am) in case i need to adjust further away. Should get there in time for the 18z update.
OK, so now that it's day of, Russell, KS is as good a place as any, but this 60 over 59 crap is for the birds, LOL.
Jacob Ferden
EF4
Didn't get a chance to post on the first update, but I'm in the same place after the 12z morning-of update. Put me in Salina, KS, knowing full well I could be in for a major bust.
Jeremy Perez
Supporter
00Z Temps in the mid 100s and cloud cover suggestive of monsoon flow in the SW US suggest an early July - early September time frame...although DPs look fairly low there (maybe they were scoured out by the low in western AZ). For whatever that's worth. I'm reallyy uncertain where to jump in.
DPs over 55 from northern KS through eastern NE, up through IA. Deeper moisture flowing beneath Nebraska low reaching up to southern NE and far southern IA. I rotated the maps 90 degrees counterclockwise to get a better feel for wind direction. Surface convergence is difficult to map out, but seems to me like the IA/MO border might work out later in the day. Looking at the 300Mb jet streak nosing into IA, could the faster speed on the SW side of the streak work to pull it further south? If so, would left exit region swing into northeast/central MO? Going to set up Brookefield, MO on the hopefully clearing side of the morning convection.
DPs over 55 from northern KS through eastern NE, up through IA. Deeper moisture flowing beneath Nebraska low reaching up to southern NE and far southern IA. I rotated the maps 90 degrees counterclockwise to get a better feel for wind direction. Surface convergence is difficult to map out, but seems to me like the IA/MO border might work out later in the day. Looking at the 300Mb jet streak nosing into IA, could the faster speed on the SW side of the streak work to pull it further south? If so, would left exit region swing into northeast/central MO? Going to set up Brookefield, MO on the hopefully clearing side of the morning convection.
