Chase Case #2 (2010 version)

[Dennis Dennison]

I am sitting in Indianapolis- looks like NE Indiana-NW Ohio to me--but ready to head to anywhere within a 100 mile radius

 

[Dann Cianca]

I like the shortwave shaping up and think there will be a nice surface wave forming along the stalling cold front. I don't like the subsidence in the wake of the feature in Colorado, though there may be some upslope flow.

I'm targeting Bethalto, Illinois. Hopefully the surface garbage will clear out and winds will back with the approach of the shorty.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Hoping that low in se CO will stall the cold front and drape it across Goodland, KS

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'll start in Topeka, KS.

 

[Connor Keef]

I'm going to head southwest to Manhattan, KS to get ahead of the cold front.

 

[James Gustina]

Well since I can't make heads or tails of where to go on this one because the entire Plains are ridged I'll just throw a dart at the map and say Clayton, NM.

 

[Tom Dulong]

After a great night's sleep and a tasty breakfast at the truckstop in Limon, CO I think I will stay put for awhile and wait for more data. Still thinking this will be an eastern CO northwest flow event.

Expect I will be converging later today under a tornadic storm with many of my other Colorado buddies (e.g., Verne, Patrick)

 

[Nick Nolte]

I'll try my hand at this. If this was for real, I would have the same attitude as Bob in that I wouldn't even give this a second glance, but since it's virtual I shall hop in my teleporter and hang out in Mount Pleasant, IA (lol?) for now. Worked out for me earlier this year

 

[Zack Hargrove]

Well, after looking at the new data and the low pressure popping up from nowhere this morning I believe I'm going to go down to interstate 80 via 29 from Sioux City, SD to Grinnell, Iowa and hope for a bit of luck.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

This is definitely a difficult forecast. Overall, there is nothing that truly stands out and says, "go here." Because of that I am going to play the mid-level low. I am starting the day in Hastings, NE.

 

[Danny Neal]

To make a hard forecast even harder, it appears that satellite and radar data is down until 1730z. Going to be hard but I will provide hourly surface composite data until we are back up and running...

12z soundings:
DEN
DVN
GRB
ILX
LBF
MPX
OAX
RAP
SGF
TOP

13z composite
14z composite
15z composite
16z composite
17z composite

1256 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN/CNTRL IL...WRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 1756Z - 2000Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
60 TO 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG/WEST OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...WHERE BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED HEATING OF LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS MOISTENED
BY WARM ADVECTION CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SPREADING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING STRONGEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO INTO THE CHAMPAIGN/DECATUR/MATTOON AREAS
BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING /AROUND THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME/. THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.

Next update (18z) will have current sfc plots, satellite, radar, and more SPC info.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Dropping south a bit to follow the cf/trough and am now heading to Liberal,KS Things don't look great for western KS but what the heck.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Well the crapvection is east of my area during brunch in Des Moines...I think I'm gonna shoot across into IL to say, Peoria to hang tight for a bit. I can be there by 3pm. The clearing behind the crapvection looks to be early enough to allow adequate destabilization for some afternoon fun. We will see!

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Heading east to Springfield, IL. Should arrive shortly after 21Z.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Well, I think I'll head back east on US 36 towards Springfield, IL. I can be there in approximately 3.5 hours with the new four-lane highway being completed, which gives me time to grab a quick lunch and then analyze the newer data as it becomes available.